Sunday night at 11.45pm Australian time the Prix Jacques le Marois takes place at Deauville, France.
Run at distance of one mile it is open to both colts and fillies three years and older. This years renewal is much anticipated with at least five horses with genuine claims.
Dawn Approach has a quick turnaround from his close second to Toranado 10 days ago in the Sussex Stakes.
His trainer Jim Bolger seems happy enough that he has recovered from that to take his chance in this.
There’s no doubting his obvious quality at this distance and with plenty of pacemakers in this he should settle well. It is a quick turnaround however after a tough race.
Two and a half lengths behind him that day was Declaration of War who looks capable of challenging in Group 1s at this distance. But there is no reason to suggest that he will turnaround of the form with Dawn Approach.
Elusive Kate is a horse who loves running here with four wins and a third.
She’s in great form winning the Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket and more recently in the Prix Rothschild.
These were against her own sex and she will have to find a bit more here to win this She has three lengths to make up on Declaration of War in her Queen Anne run at Royal Ascot.
Andre Fabre’s Intello is currently disputing favouritism for this year’s Arc with horses like Novellists and Al Kazeem.
He is trying to prove his versatility at this distance having already won the Prix Du Jockey Club (French Derby) at 2000m. Before that he came third in the French 2000 Guineas at 1mile. The French 2000 Guineas is a race on a downturn in recent years, there’s talk of it losing its Group 1 status. Because of this I tend to believe that a mile is too sharp for Intello at this level.
Perhaps the biggest challenger to Dawn Approach is the wonderful mare Moonlight Cloud. She was very impressive last time out over a shorter distance of 1400m with a 1 and 3/4 length victory over superstar English sprinter Lethal Force.
She has ability at a mile having defeated Farhh in last year’s Prix Du Moulin, Farhh looked very impressive in this year’s Lockinge. Despite this I’m going to go for Dawn Approach in this with Moonlight Cloud second and Declaration of War third.
jon
Guest
Yeah, I remember how strong he was! :) The Brits I knew gloated over the name at the time, too, haha. I hadn't quite forgotten, but it'd been so long and he hadn't been run since that I began to wonder if he was coming off an injury or poor form or something. It was really confusing. I don't know what happened with him. I was actually thinking of making a little outsider bet on either Olympic Glory of Aljamaaheer and I had been leaning more towards Aljamaaheer until someone pointed out the weights. And in the end I chickened out and didn't place it. Ah well, I'm still glad to see how well OG did. I look forward to hopefully seeing him race again before long.
jon
Guest
Nah, I think there are quite a few who are more qualified to tip these races than I am. I just like to talk horses and occasionally make predictions. I actually saw someone tip Olympic Glory as a good outside bet to place somewhere, and I thought it made a lot of sense, but I chickened out and just went with Moonlight Cloud to win, haha. Anyways, I don't live in Australia or Europe, but I do follow the racing as best I can regardless. :)
johnny nevin is a legend
Roar Pro
Olympic Glory was a very good 2 year old winning the Group 1 Grand Criterium and 2nd to Dawn Approach in last years Coventry Stakes. He put in a poor effort in the French 2000 Guineas although he encountered traffic. That run was 3 months ago and given he struggled against his own age it would take a brave man to back him here. The European mile division looks strong.
jon
Guest
That is all true, but I mainly listed those achievements to back up my point as to why I believe Moonlight Cloud had the far better chance than Dawn Approach (Sorry if this caused any misunderstanding! I'm a Moonlight Cloud fan so it's easy to get carried away with how exciting her accomplishments have been. :) ). I had a feeling that this would be too much too soon for Dawn Approach and I think that certainly proved to be the case. Very disappointing because I'd love to see Dawn Approach and Intello properly face off for once! I think they're both really strong contenders, but I've had trouble judging one against the other since they race in such different circles. But yeah, I hope DA's connections give him a break. I've not been pleased with how several trainers have been racing their horses lately - it seems to almost be a trend to throw horses into a big race indiscriminately and see if something sticks! BTW -- wasn't Olympic Glory impressive?? He's so lightly raced and he really took Moonlight Cloud on and nearly took the win! I'm surprised he's so lightly raced if he's that good.
Greggors
Guest
Nice tip! Will you be providing tips for Group1 races for European and Australian season?
johnny nevin is a legend
Guest
I'm aware of the horses both Moonlight Cloud and Farhh have beaten and competed against, I think it gets too long winded if I mention them all. I think the most relevant points when analysing Moonlight Clouds potential to win this race was that she was coming in to this race after an impressive win the previous week and that she has won at a mile at Group 1 level before. Theres no doubt she is a top class sprinter as I pointed out in her defeat of Lethal Force, but mentioning all her sprint form would have been pointless. Its more relevant that she has won at mile against a good horse like Farrh. Elusive Kate has won 4 Group 1's so far in her career, all against her own sex, so that fact that she hasn't won against the colts is relevant. I think Dawns Approaches connections have taken too many risks with him this year which haven't paid off, that is his entry in the Derby which is run over a longer trip and yesterdays run after a quick turnaround. I still believe in this horses ability and he should show this again towards the end of the season after a rest.
Jon
Guest
Haha, awww. It's a Dawn Approach fanboy! :) Unfortunately, Moonlight Cloud is much more than just a horse that beat Farhh earlier this year (and Farhh was the horse that lost to Frankel twice, but placed over St. Nicholas Abbey, Twice Over, Planteur, Cityscape and Monterosso. He also came in 2nd to the great Nathaniel and 3rd in the So You Think/Carlton House duel. These are ALL top quality horses that you may or may not have heard of - many are now retired.) - she's beaten Society Rock, Lethal Force, Krypton Factor, Golden Lilac and Immortal Verse between this year and last year (The last two mentioned were in last year's running of this race where Moonlight Cloud came 4th and Elusive Kate came 3rd, beaten only by Cityscape (2nd) and Excelebration (1st) finally out from under Frankel's shadow. So Elusive Kate hasn't ONLY run against mares and fillies although it does seem like it. She has definitely proven how tough she can be in a field of the best colts, too.). Oh, and lest we forget Moonlight Cloud came in a not far off second to the amazing Black Caviar in the Diamond Jubilee Stakes! I think *that* more than anything should make most people interested in betting lean towards Moonlight Cloud - you can't get much better competition than that. In comparison, Dawn Approach hasn't really raced against anything the likes of Black Caviar. I think several of Dawn Approach's generation have been over-hyped and over-rated and people are beginning to find themselves disappointed. I don't think Dawn Approach is actually that over-hyped, but I don't think he should be a clear favorite against such a strong and improving field. I agree with most of what Alfred has said here, except I'd probably not even go as far as fourth because it's a toss-up for me with Dawn Approach and Intello. Whatever happens, it's definitely gonna be an interesting race!
Alfred Chan
Expert
A mile is too short for Intello. He's a won several times at the distance but those wins have been against French horses only. He steps up to European class here and he'll need more ground to cover most of these. He's here for fitness more than anything and will press on to the Arc. I've always viewed Moonlight Cloud as a sprinter more than a miler but she's beaten the world's best sprinter (Farhh) over the mile and flew home in her last start to prove she's fit an firing. Aljamaaheer will be the surprise packet. He's got very different form lines than most of the field. His runs in the Queen Anne and Summer Mile were full of merit on the Ascot track. He gets back to a flatter surface here and I think he'll run very well. Dawn Approach is an interesting one. I see they've given up hope of getting him beyond 2000m which I think is the right move but I would have stuck with the Toronado camp and bypassed this race. The Sussex will have taken a lot out of Dawn Approach who sustained a very long run in a race run faster than either of the times Frankel won. I really like Elusive Kate but she should not have been allowed to keep the Falmouth in what I view as the dodgiest ride of the year. She's a track specialist and is the best of the each-way selections. I've gone: 1. Moonlight Cloud, 2. Elusive Kate, 3. Aljamaaheer 4. Dawn Approach.