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Adelaide Crows should trade their captain

12th August, 2013
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Adelaide's Nathan van Berlo gets a hand ball away during the AFL Indigenous Round 09 match between the West Coast Eagles and the Adelaide Crows at Subiaco. GSP images
Roar Guru
12th August, 2013
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This week the Adelaide Crows play their second last game at AAMI Stadium for the year and forever.

With the end of this era fast approaching and finals seemingly out of reach for the Crows, list management for 2014 will be at the forefront of many Adelaide fans minds.

Despite slipping from a preliminary final in 2012 to out of the eight in 2013, there is reason to be optimistic if you follow the Crows. The team is reasonably well balanced in terms of positioning across the ground and importantly seems to be fostering talented and promising youth.

While there are many promising new or near-new players coming up for the Crows, despite their slide down the ladder, there are a few players who have not added value in their roles so far this season.

The most significant of these disappointing players has been the captain Nathan Van Berlo. Although Van Berlo has not been the single worst player on the list this season, it is my belief that he is no longer in the best 22 at this club.

Now you might argue several things: that his slip from the best 22 shouldn’t necessarily warrant his dismissal. You may even believe he is in fact still in the best 22. And that getting rid of a good club servant and current captain is suicide for club culture and performance, just look at the Demons.

Let me address these concerns by outlining the following reasons for trading out Nathan Van Berlo:

1. Underperforming/career trajectory

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I base a lot of my ideas on a formula that I use to evaluate a player’s entire statistical contribution. Across season 2013 Van Berlo has, in what I would call ‘real terms’, cost his team 0.09 of a goal per game. In other words, he has detracted from the overall value of the team rather than adding to it.

Last week, in a good team performance against Port Adelaide, he was worth -.37 of a goal. If you look at Van Berlo’s previous two seasons he has been declining in every statistical category across 2012 and 2013. The upshot of this long term projection is that at 27 years of age one wouldn’t be expecting Van Berlo to be trending upward.

Even if he arrests his decline in form you would not expect him to produce his career best standard. Looking at his statistical specifics reveals a player that is not truly proficient in any area. As a midfielder Van Berlo can’t really be defined as either an ‘inside’ or ‘outside’ player.

His 3.5 tackles a game is ok but he’s only getting it 17 times a game (lower than at any time since his first two seasons). Of these possessions less than half are contested and he is using the ball at an unbelievably poor 63%.

This sort of stat would only be acceptable if an Berlo contributed as a goal kicker or brute strength clearance player but he is lacking in these areas also. Ultimately the form line both current and projected does not bode well.

2. New era

On the verge of a new era away from AAMI stadium perhaps it wouldn’t be ridiculous for the Crows to consider a leadership change? The future of their club lies with players like Dangerfield and Sloane, who are by all reports very mature leaders for their age.

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That they are excellent players is beyond dispute and arguably the opportunity to lead the club would not only provide the recognition these players deserve but also enhance their status and performance.

While keeping Van Berlo and changing captains is a more likely and less drastic approach under the right circumstances, having the captain leave the club does not have to mean opening the door to a leadership vacuum.

3. Van Berlo still has currency

Aside from the fact that I believe he is past his best the other big advantage to trading Van Berlo now is that he might actually still have currency. As a leader and formerly good midfield presence, there are many clubs who would happily welcome Van Berlo to their club.

As a native West Australian one of these clubs might prove attractive to him or alternatively GWS might be interested in adding his experience to a very young midfield.

In return Adelaide could go in a couple of directions. They could look for high draft picks and continue to regenerate the list from the ground up or seek a value trade by getting a similar but younger midfielder ready to enter their optimal form window.

My preference would be for Adelaide to look for a ruckman. Sam Jacobs is a very good tap ruckman but has had a poor year and looked very one dimensional.

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At 25 it is worth persisting with Jacobs even if he needs to add strings to his bow however a good first choice ruckman would create competition for the role and potentially be better for the Crows.

In a perfect world with Walker and Jenkins fit the number one forward and second ruck/forward spots are theirs. However, with Jacobs out of form and unable to play other positions and an injury to either Walker or Jenkins (or both!) there is simply not enough size and quality at these key posts (Shaun McKernan could be delisted/traded also).

A more mobile or versatile first ruck would be a very useful puzzle piece for Adelaide and could see them recapture 2012 type form.

4. Qualifying statements

Finally, I’d like to finish by qualifying my previous statements and defending Van Berlo somewhat. I realise there are intangibles to take into consideration and if Van Berlo is loved and respected as captain trading him could have disastrous implications for club culture and morale.

Unfortunately, I am not privy to that inside information. Moreover there are some worse performed players in 2013 on the list (Tambling, Porplyzia, Brodie Martin) and some players only slightly ahead of him who could still be used as trade bait in the way I have described here (Bernie Vince, Sam Jacobs, Shaun McKernan, David McKay).

Obviously it is more likely that one of these players or other players deemed to be underperforming would be traded out before Van Berlo and the club would simply hope for improvement from their captain.

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My feeling, however, is that not only is Van Berlo not adding value according to my formula but that his nominal output in all statistical categories is declining and at his age is unlikely to rebound significantly.

The most likely chance for a form/career revival is probably a role change. Figures would suggest Van Berlo isn’t effective as a genuine midfielder any more.

Potentially a defensive forward role or half back sweeper could work although these are the immediate thoughts that came to my mind without much thought for Van Berlo’s particular skills and talents. At the end of the day I’m not sure that his statistical results indicate that he has any unique talents to offer.

No doubt I will be pilloried for suggesting that a club captain be stood down from the role and traded from the club, but how many teams can afford to stand on sentiment?

Why should it be such a big deal to trade a captain anyway? I think a club’s first priority is to have value added players, irrespective of position, age or ‘intangibles’.

These concerns are secondary though, and if a 27-year-old player is both underperforming and has limited upside the club has a duty to replace them irrespective of how well liked they are by their teammates.

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