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Calculating the true value of a tall forward

Roar Pro
13th August, 2013
4

There was much media talk last weekend about Tippett’s six goals and about Tom Hawkins’continued poor form. Media analysts talk a lot about the most glamourous functions of tall forwards – marks and goals.

But this article takes a more rounded look at what will be required of tall forwards in the upcoming finals.

Media analysts were quick to note how Hawkins’ bad back prevented him from picking up balls on the ground. What received less attention was how his bad back was reducing his defensive capabilities.

Hawkins has never had a small turning circle or a huge tackle count, but his bad back has reduced his defensive value to almost zero.

A tackler needs to be able to bend down fast and low, and no amount of cortisone injections will allow Hawkins to do that.

Geelong has experimented this year with various other tall forwards. It has a glut of rucks like Nathan Vardy, Hamish McIntosh and Dawson Simpson but it would be suicide to play any of these alongside Hawkins in the finals, at least for long spells.

Their sluggishness would allow opposition defenders a free rebound every time the ball hit the ground.

Mark Blicavs, who has laid 45 tackles from 16 games in 2013, is the only Geelong ruck with enough defensive capacity and mobility to be worth throwing into the forward line alongside Hawkins.

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Geelong’s best option is to get James Podsiadly match-fit before the finals. Podsiadly’s defensive pressure, including his aggression, is better than any other Geelong tall forward, so opposition rebounders would get less freedom.

Podsiadly is also better than any other Geelong tall forward at feeding Geelong crumbers with his handball and knocking the ball into their path.

He rarely gets a bag of marks and goals, and he may not win many media plaudits but he can still be valuable in bringing Geelong crumbers into the game.

Kurt Tippett is not yet great at bringing Swans crumbers into the game. But he can normally at least bring the ball to the ground, and his tackling at the Swans is a respectable 23 tackles during eight games.

Jesse White, Sam Reid and a fit Adam Goodes all have better mobility than Tippett, and Goodes is elite at feeding Swans crumbers with his handball and knocking the ball into their path.

But defensively the Swans can only afford to have two of these four big men in their forward line at any one time; otherwise the Swans’ forward press will fall apart.

The Dockers simply must have a fit Matthew Pavlich. They don’t have a ruck who has good enough defensive skills to play long stretches in their forward line, and Kepler Bradley has a season-ending knee injury.

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Michael Johnson will probably be needed in defence, and so will Luke McPharlin if he returns from injury.

Pavlich is only reasonable defensively, and a good opponent can usually reduce him to a low tally of marks. But he has a Nick Riewoldt-like capacity to get to many contests, and is better than Riewoldt at feeding his small forwards.

That brings us to the dynamic duo of Hawthorn: Lance Franklin and Jarryd Roughead. No other tall forward duo in AFL history has been more effective defensively than these two. They both chase and tackle better than most big forwards.

Alongside one of the best tackling small forwards of all time, Cyril Rioli, and often with hard nut Jordan Lewis moved forward, they can lay a formidable forward press.

Also, Franklin and Roughead have kicked 47 and 59 goals respectively this year and Roughead is a master at feeding his small forwards. Hawthorn’s tall forwards are the best all-round value.

In the upcoming finals, tall forwards will be vital. They’ll need to take marks and, when midfielders are pressured to simply bomb the ball into their forward line, to bring the ball to ground on the dangerous side of the pack.

But some tall forwards will provide extra value.

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Even if it’s not lauded by the media or even captured in the stats, players like Podsiadly and Roughead will bring small forwards into the game, while less mobile or less team-oriented tall forwards will make things easy for opposition rebounders.

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