A word of advice to the Wallabies faithful; don’t go celebrating Dan Carter’s absence just yet – the man who led the Chiefs to back to back Super Rugby championships awaits.
There is no doubting Carter’s experience and know-how on what it takes to beat the Wallabies is vital, but is he still the best 10 in New Zealand?
Chiefs flyhalf Aaron Cruden will almost certainly get the 10 jersey for this weekend’s first Bledisloe Cup Test and the statistics for the 2013 domestic season suggest it may not be as bad as first thought for the Kiwis.
Yes, flyhalf play is not all about the statistics produced but they can provide some key indicators as to how affective each touch a 10 gets really is.
Both Cruden and Carter bring different assets to the All Blacks and this was demonstrated through the Super Rugby season.
Carter has been the stronger of the two defensively over 2013, while Cruden has arguably provided the most spark of any flyhalf in the competition.
Cruden led the competition in linebreak assists with 15, finished fourth in offloads with 25, second in try creates with eight and averaged 11.4 metres per run over the 68 times he set off with ball in hand.
While these statistics are all in Cruden’s favour, it is Carter’s consistency and clear mind which has held him in good stead over the previous decade.
This is evident through his kicking – both in general play and off the tee – which is superior to Cruden, as well as his defensive workload.
Carter attempted nearly twice as many tackles (150) for two less misses than Cruden (24), kicked at 87% off the tee compared to Cruden’s 68% and averaged 7.1 metres more per kick than Cruden with 42.1.
A combination of both would provide the perfect flyhalf and All Blacks head coach Steve Hansen will have a selection nightmare ahead of him when Carter returns.
Blackheart
Guest
Frank O'K ..... Top montage... The parochial commentary that issues forth from Marto leaves me loving life. Watching the ABs win the "have too",games and coming back the next week to listen to the exposition on fox sports is worth the subscription alone. Thanks.... Keep it coming!!!
mapu
Guest
Smart?i don't get that.if not starting..not in the team
Waikato07
Guest
I struggle to see the benefit in this - I don't think the Wallabies will get a clear enough margin in the upcoming games against the ABs the game will be too tight to risk bringing on someone as unpredictable and 'hit or miss' as cooper. I think McKenzie would end up forced to stick with the solidity of Toomua and the only time he would bring cooper on would when the game was already lost. This might be a good ploy agaInst the Pumas but against the ABs if he's in the squad he may as well start.
rugby_phile
Guest
Mate, I rate Toomua, should have qualified my comment. Might be a bit tough to blood him in his first test against the ABs, but I think he has the goods. Reckon this is QCs swansong as a test First Five.
rugby_phile
Guest
Not as pessimistic as you my friend, missed their chance last year when I feel you underestimated them. We'll see.
Rugby Tragic
Guest
I agree with McKenzie that the AB's are in transition. 7 of the players are over 30 and with the new guys the average age is dropping ... the talent over there is enormous but the transition period is when I think the AB's will be there most vulnerable. Smith TJB and Peneara give a lot of depth at halfback (the latter to be 1st choice for 2015) to play the game that Hansen wants. Look for Steven Luatua and Charles Puitau to develop into superstarts .. then Ardie Savea, the 19 year old kid might just be introduced slowly with 2019 in mind. What about Sali, Bundee Aki etc... 2nd rowers still very young, hooker and mid field might look shallow in depth but plenty of cover. Ben Smith can play in the centres, Tom Taylor not even in the squad (I prefer him to Crotty)... the point is , even in transition they will still be formidable
Odds are it will be us mate, the setup of the Rugby championship means they play us in their first two maches every year.
hoqni
Guest
Sure. I think for the Bledisloe, It is how much influence both King Richie and Conrad Smith can gel the team, will be the key, given that there is no Weepu and no DC.
Rugby Tragic
Guest
hoqni - not forgetting anything mate, I was there! Weepu played well up until the final, covered and supported well but could have cost the AB's the title with his kicking astray early and it was his messed up speculator that lead to the France's try. Just added to the drama!
Rugby Tragic
Guest
Barrett is more solid than Cruden and I think quicker. He had a stella start to his AB career, I think it was against Ireland in 2012 if my memory serves me correctly and several cameos this year. He looked to be 'the find' of the year with the Hurricanes and if he continues to improve, he could well be the 1st Choice No 10 at RWC 2015, it should be a good battle with Cruden. But note still not discounting DC, I think he is a one in a lifetime player.
dwayne
Guest
Interesting game. Deans was an outstanding super coach. Terrible at test level. Mackenzie a very good super coach, but even more suited to that style. Test level is 5 times higher and more structured, even more so against the AB's. Will be very interesting to see how EM goes at this level. Also anybody see how bad Carters kicking was in the super semi.
dwayne
Guest
If the forwards get go forward Cruden will reek havoc.
hoqni
Guest
I think what is not remembered is that Weepu played like a French 9, and that's what gave ABs RWC 2011. How quickly one forgets.
dwayne
Guest
No. Good people make good All Blacks. Wouldn't get anywhere near a black jersey. Geez the thought gives me the shudders. mentally weak.
jimmyd
Guest
Love the video Frank...looking forward to some more of Marto s insightful gems this week. Lol
Garth
Guest
I think Barrett will be the AB's 1st choice 10 by 2015. Despite Cruden's obvious talent & record at the Chiefs, rumor has it Barrett is highly regarded as the best long term prospect.
Garth
Guest
That sounds suspiciously Deans-like.
ohtani's jacket
Guest
I think people are overlooking the fact that it's now very much about Aaron Smith and Aaron Cruden not just a straight swap with Carter. If those two get quick ball, the Wallabies are going to be stretched, but if the forwards get to Smith then it's going to be a hard slog for New Zealand. I think Aaron Smith is the key here. I anticipate the Aussie forwards to come out fired up like they have in Brisbane the past two years. I'm expecting a really tough opening quarter for the All Blacks.
Rugby Tragic
Guest
RK agree with your point. It is just that Carter over such a long period of time has controlled the game. While good players in their own right neither Cruden nor Barrett (with limited opportunities) are quite up to Carter's class at this point. Of course Carter has had his off days (though in the words of Frank Sinatra.. "too few to remember") but when he is on song, I've not seen a single player dictate the fortunes of a game like he does. He might be a yard slower now but his option taking is generally spot on. I don't think Cruden will hold many fears for the Wallabies but Beauden Barrett might (if he gets to go on).
Rugby Tragic
Guest
It was indeed astonishing. Not only Carter and McCaw but Keiran Read (the big three if you like) was also out with an ankle injury until the quarter finals as well, they carried him through all pool matches. I guess that indicated the regard they had for the number 8. Don't know if you watched the Fox Documentary on "Weight of a Nation" which covered the AB's march to the 2011 RWC. The pressure to perform must of been immense. The emotion was there to see... bought back a lot of memories. Never have seen a dominant back three (Cory Jane, Richard Kahui and Israel Dagg) on the top of their games operate so efficiently.