The AFL top four has everyone is a tiz at the moment, but another interesting battle, akin to avoiding the relegation drop in the Premier League, is the battle for ninth.
If what people are thinking happens, Essendon will be stripped of premiership points and take out the wooden spoon.
That leaves ninth place to be contested to make up the final eight, assuming Port Adelaide will pick up at least one more win to secure their place – with good chances against Gold Coast and Carlton at home to do just that. Fremantle away is a tougher task.
That leaves West Coast, Carlton, North Melbourne, Adelaide, Brisbane and the roughy in Gold Coast to fight it out for the Stephen Bradbury award in 2013.
Carlton
Most pundits would be thinking after the weekend the Blues are gone. To strengthen that claim, they face three top eight teams to round out the season.
The Tigers are on fire and should account for the Blues. Essendon are hobbling badly but not as badly as Carlton and with only pride to play for in 2013 it may be they play spoilers to teams like Carlton.
And finally, Port Adelaide, the bolters of 2013 and my new second favourite tam thanks to Ken Hinckley. I can’t see the Blues picking up another win this year.
36 points.
West Coast
Just when they needed some kindness, the Eagles face Geelong and Collingwood in successive weeks before finally hosting Adelaide to see out the season.
A tough trifecta of matches completes the season for the wounded birds, a set that I can see only one win coming their way.
40 points.
North Melbourne
If Kevin Sheedy reckons Freo won the lottery then he must think North Melbourne copped a full body cavity search when it came to the fixtures for 2013.
Just to prove it, the ‘Roos finish up their annus horribilus by playing Essendon, Hawthorn and Collingwood.
I can see them getting the goods on the Bombers but that’s about it.
The Hawks and Pies will be primed for the finals and won’t be wanting to drop any more games this year.
36 points.
Brisbane
The Lions sit one game off ninth but considerable percentage.
Their next two games against the Giants and the Bulldogs should be wins but they need more than just two wins to catch the Eagles on 40 points.
Their final game is against Geelong and one the Cats will be out for revenge in.
Don’t expect the Lions to get any favours from Geelong as they look to hold onto second place in the ladder and the double home final.
40 points.
Gold Coast
The Suns need to win all their final three matches and add percentage to catch West Coast.
They should get the wins and percentage boosts against St Kilda and the Giants but it’s the away game to Port this weekend that will truly end their season, albeit a season that has a lot of people pencilling them in for finals in 2014.
I for one am waiting to see if Jack Martin can debut as well as Jaeger O’Meara has this year.
36 points.
So there it is. For those teams chasing ninth place it would seem that none have three gimme games to help them across the line.
West Coast seems primed to take the finals place should the AFL strip the Bombers of premiership points, thanks to Brisbane’s poor percentage, which has a nice bit of karma attached to it if you consider West Coast was forced to play a home final against the Bombers at the MCG in 1996.
That all said, 2013 has had a habit of throwing up miracle wins – just ask Brisbane.
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