Can the Pies topple the Hawks tonight?

And Hawthorn drown.

Mate honestly, you seriously cant write all this yourself and if you are, why are you just doing it in a standard comment- do a proper preview or something.

Go HAWKS!!!!!

Not a change the pies will win. Also loving the attention Cloke deserves all game every game. Go Hawks

Collingwood are in way better form than the hawks at the moment but there defence tends to be found out against hawthorn. Big game for both teams, collingwood wins and there a good shot for the top four, lose they can't win the flag as only one team has won the flag from outside the 4 and that was Adelaide in 98 and that was an outlandish year. Hawks lose and there top 2 hopes are in grave danger with a trip to Sydney in the final round. Tip: hawks by 15 (sorry Andy)

Good write up But I hope the hawks wipe the floor with them

Great write up, although I hope you're wrong.

Great Read!! Sounds like you know your stuff but I wouldn't give them a chance.

FFS i wouldn't read too much into the essendon game. They are shot mentally and I doubt they will win another game for the rest of the year. Even an out of sorts west coast flogged them at home.

Excellent article Andrew- great detail and very informative- keep writing - I want to read more!!

No doubt this is the match of the round - will be tuning in tonight!

Operation Ditch Mitch! McCaffer has to go to Mitchell. He has killed us in the past. His record is:- R13 2013: 27 possessions QF 2012: 31 possessions R17 2012: 33 possessions, 3 brownlow votes R1 2012: 32 possessions, 2 brownlow votes PF 2011: 31 possessions and a goal R15 2011: 34 possessions and 2 goals R22 2010: 30 possessions, 3 brownlow votes R4 2010: 23 possessions (and we thumped 'em!) R16 2009: 25 possessions and 3 goals R18 2008: 35 possessions R7 2008: 39 possessions, 3 brownlow votes

Looks like Hodge is out tonight. Will make the job a lot easier as he is a superstar.

What a difference a few weeks makes. If you go back just two weeks the Collingwood Football Club was in crisis it seemed, having lost all on field form. The media and fans were writing their season off after a loss to the Gold Coast and an unimpressive win over the GWS Giants. Fast forward two weeks, and the Magpies look as dangerous as any other team in the competition at the moment. It all started against Essendon for the Magpies when that ferocious intensity and pressure on the opposition, the traits that made the Pies so good in 2010 and 2011, returned to a level probably unseen since those days. The Magpies destroyed the hapless Bombers by 79 points and then last Saturday night in Sydney followed that up with a win over the reigning premiers, the Swans by 29 points. At this very moment the Magpies are one of, if not the team no one wants to face in week one of the finals series. Once again though the draw just gets tougher for the Magpies with a matchup this Friday night against their bogey team, Hawthorn. I say bogey team because since the Pies last beat the Hawks, back in that epic 2011 preliminary final, Hawthorn has won all four meetings by an average of 43 points. The last time the two teams faced off was in round 3 this year and the Hawks smashed Collingwood off the park with a 55 point win, with Franklin, Breust, Roughead and Burgoyne combining to kick as many goals as the entire Magpies line up. There will be personnel changes to both sides in comparison to that last match but Collingwood really do have trouble against Hawthorn, so this is the biggest test as to whether the Pies are really a contender or not. Collingwood probably don’t even have to win this game to prove their worth, a close result would do that just as well, but if they want to keep alive an outside chance of a top four position this is a must win game for the Magpies. PREVIOUS FORM One could argue that the Hawks, despite being on top of the AFL ladder at the moment, are not playing anywhere near their full potential. A 41 point loss in the wet at the MCG to the Tigers two weeks ago was followed up by a very lacklustre performance against the Saints on Friday night. Yes, the Hawks had two absolute stars missing in Luke Hodge and Lance Franklin but they struggled to put the Saints away until late, eventually coming away with a 46 point win. The loss to the Tigers was so out of the norm for the Hawks though, up to that point they had only lost two games all year, and they were both to Geelong, their bogey team. That loss to the Tigers was a strange one indeed, and can probably be put down to just an off week for the Hawks. There have been plenty of positives for the Hawks this year with Jarryd Roughead the stand out, trailing in the Coleman medal race by just one goal with three rounds left. Roughead has also begun to go back into the ruck for the Hawks, and may well be their most effective ruck as well. The Hawks are still one of the sides to beat in 2013, there’s little doubt about that, despite that recent hiccup. Collingwood, wow, where did this come from? Two big wins over opponents that had been sitting in the top four for most of the season all of a sudden has rejuvenated the whole club. The win over Essendon could have been questioned in regards to it’s validity, but to defeat the reigning premiers at home left the football world in no doubt of what the Pies are capable of. Collingwood again started slowly against the Swans, allowing the locals to kick the first 4 goals, but from then on the Pies really did dominate in just about every area. The only two Swans to put up real fights were McVeigh and Tippett, with the latter booting 6 goals before 3/4 time. For the Magpies the midfield totally dominated with Pendlebury, Beams, Swan and Ball all having over 30 possessions each. The turnaround in the last two weeks has also come about due to a more efficient forward line, with the move of Ben Reid down forward providing the Magpies with a multi dimensional attack for the first time this season. Jamie Elliott took advantage of that last week playing maybe his best game for the club, finishing with 3 goals as the primary small forward. The Pies are back in form, but this week is another test altogether. COLLINGWOOD PREVIEW There’s really no under stating just how big of a change has occurred to this Collingwood outfit in the last few weeks, with the club going from struggling against the two expansion clubs to ruthlessly disposing of two finals bound sides. There seems to be two main reasons for this improvement. The first one is a change in attitude from the players, you can just see they seem to be more aggressive but also enjoying their football a lot more than they were a few weeks back. The second point, and this may actually be the reason for point one, is that the Pies finally have a settled best 22 playing week in, week out. This weekend for the second time in a row the Pies may well make no changes at all, and stability in a senior AFL team is something that leads to success. The Magpies have used 40 players this season, only the second year GWS Giants have used more, and this shows just how unstable, and how injury wrecked Collingwood has been in 2013. Of course, with injury and instability comes opportunity and several players who were granted the opportunity to win a first team slot have grabbed it with both hands and may not be letting go. The likes of Dwyer, Williams, Sinclair, Keeffe, J.Thomas and Grundy have performed above expectations in the last few weeks to the point where you can’t see them losing their place in the senior team. Of course Brodie Grundy has stolen all the limelight, being the first selected player in the draft and contesting so well against experienced and classy rucks, but he’s not the only one who has shown that this club has a massive future. The game plan at Collingwood is also coming along well, with less turnovers but a willingness to use the centre corridor more in one game than they did in an entire season under Mick Malthouse. Just now is the more attacking game plan showing signs of effectiveness. This weekend the Pies face a real nemesis, a side that they have struggled to beat since it won the 2008 premiership. The last four times Collingwood has played the Hawks, it’s been ugly from a Magpies perspective so this becomes the ultimate test. The Pies won’t make many changes at selection, if any, so it then becomes who matches up on who in that dangerous Hawks forward line. Lachie Keeffe may well get the first shot at restricting Lance “Buddy” Franklin, and the inexperienced defender has played on him before, back in round 1 2012 and was decent, without being great. Nathan Brown is likely to take Jarryd Roughead which leaves Jack Gunston, Breust and Rioli for the rest of the Pies backline to handle. You’d think this is where the game will be won or lost but the Hawks have been struggling in the midfield, especially in that loss to the Tigers, and this Pies midfield is as good as any in the competition at the moment. Collingwood will look to dominate in the middle and stop the ball from getting down to that worrying Hawks forward line as much as possible. It’s testing time for Collingwood, time to see if they really are back. Couple of things from the Sydney game that I think if Collingwood can maintain we're a good chance. 1-Tackling pressure. We were able to rush the ball carrier giving him no time to choose the best option out of the contest, and our perimeter mids shut down hard on the receivers, as opposed to getting dragged into the contest. 2-Ball movement. Run and carry through the lines, shit even through the middle on occasions was great to see. 3- Forward 50 entries and options. Lowered the eyes on plenty of occasions and hit up targets in space, as opposed to earlier in the season when cloke was our first, second and third option and the other team knew it. Having Reid playing forward certainly helps, but it really comes down to the ball carrier to take the right option which the last two weeks they have. if we can exploit the hawks weakness of pace outside the contest and direct the ball into our forward 50 so Gibson and lake aren't just cutting off entries were a shout. Easier said than done, and if we don't bring our tackling pressure were no chance. _________________ OPPOSITION ANALYSIS The Hawks don’t sit on top of the AFL ladder by chance, they have earned the right to sit there through 19 games of tough, hard, skilful football. Most weekends, the Hawks merely over power their opponents, and rarely do they play a purely defensive game style like some of the other finalists do, they attack and they attack in waves. They have the best forward line in the AFL, of that there is almost no argument and over the past few seasons have recruited well to fill gaps that have been exposed during the finals. Last year of course they missed out on a massive opportunity to add to their 2008 premiership when they lost a Grand Final to the Swans in a game they started favourites in, but you get the feeling that lost has given this group the motivation it needs to go all the way this season. The loss to the Tigers two weeks back was only the third this season, and only the second club the Hawks had lost to, so it’s pretty clear to see that this Hawthorn line up is still very formidable indeed. The Hawthorn forward line is obviously the team’s area of strength, as it has been for a significant period of time. Of course it’s led by two of the best key position forwards in the AFL, Lance “Buddy” Franklin and Jarryd Roughead, both capable of destroying teams in any given game. They are more than ably assisted by Jack Gunston, who plays the role of third key forward most weeks, Cyril Rioli who most sides are simply scared of and Luke Breust who acts as that surprise forward that sides sometimes forget about. Paul Puopolo also plays forward the majority of the time, but he hasn’t had as he may have in the past, as shown by his return of less then a goal a game this year. The Hawks also have plenty of goal kicking midfielders that add to the scoreboard but it’s this forward line up that most teams are unable to handle. This is the area of the ground that Hawthorn will look to dominate against a Pies backline that is missing Alan Toovey and is using Ben Reid more up forward than back. If the Hawks can get it inside 50 as much as the Pies can, then the Magpies defense will be truly tested this week, and how it stands up may well decide this game. The Hawks midfield has been struggling a little bit of late, with the Tigers absolutely smashing them in the defeat two weeks ago. The form or premiership player Brad Sewell has been the greatest concern as he’s found himself struggling to the point where he has been omitted several times this season. Statistically though, apart from that one game against Richmond the Hawks central brigade is still one of the best in the AFL. They rank second for centre clearances and a respectable 8th for total clearances and contested possessions. Any midfield that is led my Mitchell, Burgoyne and Hodge still has a capacity to compete, and defeat most oppositions when it comes to getting first hands on the ball. The Hawks ruck set up has this myth about it, that it’s not very good yet it sits 8th (a familiar statistical rating it seems) which is much better than the Pies, who continue to have the least hitouts of anyone in the AFL. Youngster Brodie Grundy has seen to improve the Pies in that area though, so it will be interesting to see how he goes against a probable ruck combination of Hale and Bailey. The Pies midfield is their strength, and simply put it’s the area of the ground they must dominate if they are to break their losing streak against the Hawks. The Hawks backline came under some criticism after last year’s finals series, and the club reacted by going out and getting a big name full bake in Brian Lake from the Bulldogs. When fit Lake is without doubt one of the best attacking defenders in the AFL and already has formed a partnership with Josh Gibson that has improved the Hawks backline. Along with these two Ben Stratton keeps on improving to a point where the Hawthorn backline is no longer an apparent weakness. This week their backline will have to deal with an entirely different Collingwood forward set up than what they’ve seen in the past, with Ben Reid and Jamie Elliott now as dangerous as Travis Cloke. Cloke is a beast who still gives Hawks fans nightmares about that fateful 2011 preliminary final when he simply carried the Pies back into the game, and eventually Hawks. The Pies forward line isn’t quite as efficient and scary as the Hawks version, but if the Pies midfield can deliver it cleanly and more often inside the attacking zone the Pies may this time score enough to get over the line. This is a heavyweight clash, and you get the feeling both sets of players are really looking forward to a genuine test just 3 weeks out from the finals. The Hawks won’t hold back, they can’t if they want to secure a top 2 spot and a guaranteed home match in week one of finals series. They are almost certain to get Franklin back but Luke Hodge may have to wait one more week to get over that thumb injury. Hawthorn will go into this game confident that it can beat Collingwood, but it’s a different Pies outfit than they faced back in round 3 so they’ll have to be on their game or else. TIP Hawthorn will start favourites for this game, and deservedly so as they sit 1st, and the Pies sit back in 5th yet it’s Collingwood who come into the game with all the momentum. The weather may play a part too with very strong winds and rain forecast for Friday night, although it’s not too often that the weatherman is accurate this far out. If it is wild and wet it favours Collingwood, there is no doubt about that at all as the Pies destroyed Essendon in the wet the day after the Tigers did the same to the Hawks in similar conditions. Hawthorn’s forward line is where this game will be won or lost in my opinion, and it’s all got to do with how often, and how accurate the ball delivery is from the Hawthorn midfielders. If the Pies can place the Hawks under the type of intense pressure they placed on the Bombers and Swans then it might be Collingwood who come out of this game with a win, rather than the flag favourites.

Nice article. If they play as well as they have the past two weeks, they can do it.

in other words, No.

yes, but only if it rains cats and dogs and reduces the game to a no skills contest

Great write up bit I still hate Collingwood. But if you could write something this gr8 about the Bombers i'd be a huge follower ,)

Yes.

No.