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A journey to ‘The End of the Earth’ beckons for the peloton, or so the Romans would have had us believe, as La Vuelta a Espana continues to showcase the autonomous region of Galicia.
The peloton will cycle 189km over rough terrain from the town of Lalin to the coastal town of Fisterra.
Whilst Stage 4’s finish may be kinder to the sprinters, there are a few obstacles which could see them spat out the back door.
On the bright side for the peloton, the weather should be favourable towards them for the majority of the stage.
With the wind predicted to be relatively light until the peloton once again reach the coastal roads with roughly 40km remaining to the finish line. Once again the winds are predicted to arrive from a north-easterly direction.
Which should see the peloton cycle in to a nominal headwind once they reach the coast, until they change direction approaching the finish and receive a nominal tailwind.
Viewers of the 2012 Vuelta a Espana should be familiar with the ascent of the Mirador de Ézaro, it was utilised as a summit finish for Stage 12.
Whilst the stage shall not be finishing upon the steep slopes of the Mirador de Ézaro today, the fact it lies just 34km from the finish could cause some trouble.
Despite being just 1800m in length, an elevation gain of 255m within such a short distance results in gradients of above 10 percent, at an official average gradient of 13.1 percent.
Understandably, especially if ridden at a fierce tempo, the Mirador de Ézaro has the ghastly potential to murder any opportunity the sprinters have of a stage victory.
Once distanced the sprinters will have to fight hard should they want to rejoin the shattered peloton.
Which, given the strong winds predicted, may be no easy feat. Any effort spent rejoining the peloton could drain that particular rider’s energy for the challenging uphill sprint.
Stage 4’s finish near Fisterra, while arguably easier than yesterday’s finale, shall challenge the strength and ability of those contesting the stage victory.
As the the terrain rises from roughly 25m to 115m in elevation within 2.5km. Dissimilar to several climb ridden so far this Vuelta a Espana, today’s finish features a steady and consistent slope.
With a calculated average gradient of 3.6 percent, those challenging for the stage victory can expect a modest but lengthy drag up to the finishing line.
The parcours leads me to believe that we could see three different situations occur.
The original breakaway of the day could escape the grasp of the peloton should Radioshack-Leopard be left to chase solo, to protect new Maillot Rojo (Red Jersey) bearer Chris Horner.
A strong group could break away from the peloton at a later time, probably somewhere around the location of the Mirador de Ézaro, or a weakened bunch sprint could eventuate should a few teams carefully control the race and nullify any breakaways.
Were the breakaway to be caught and the sprinters to somehow survive the torture of the Mirador de Ézaro, I would favour someone like Michael Matthews of Orica-GreenEDGE to claim the stage victory.
However, given the severity of the Mirador de Ézaro, despite being 34km from the finishing line, it is difficult to see them surviving or having enough left in the tank for a bunch sprint.
So it may be the puncheurs, who are the favourites for the stage victory, should the breakaway be reeled in.
With the sprinters absent favouritism would arguably fall upon the shoulders of Gianni Meersman (Omega Pharma – Quick-Step), Philippe Gilbert (BMC), Alejandro Valverde (Movistar), Daniel Ratto (Cannondale), and Simon Gerrans (Orica-GreenEDGE).
Should the domestiques be allowed off the leash, cyclists such as Edvald Boasson Hagen (Team Sky) and Maxim Iglinskiy (Astana) could be up there with a chance too.
Whether a group of riders within the peloton will be both brave enough and allowed to attack off the front end of the peloton shall have to be seen.
However, the Mirador de Ézaro could act as a great launch pad for a serious gamble at the stage victory from cyclists like Luis Leon Sanchez (Team Belkin), Zdenek Stybar (Omega Pharma – Quick-Step), and Juan Antonio Flecha of Vacansoleil-DCM.
Capitalising on the confusion caused by the aftermath of the climb should allow a group to cycle clear.
Any potential breakaway could receive some leeway should those deemed as a threat to the General Classification not be involved.
There we have it, three possible situations and two different lists of notable contenders. However, if cycling has taught us anything it is that it is not raced on paper.
If the stage happens to be contested by a breakaway it can be almost impossible to predict one, or several, favourites whom may conquer the stage ahead of the rest.
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