On Sunday morning (3.50am Australian time) the latest renewal of the Irish Champion Stakes takes place. Run at Leopardstown, Dublin over a distance of 2000m it is Ireland’s premier open age/WFA race.
Past winners include Sadler’s Wells, Daylami, Giants Causeway, High Chaparral, So You Think and the magnificent Sea the Stars.
This years running while not a classic renewal still carries plenty of interest, mainly due to the ground conditions. At the moment the official going is good to firm however substantial rain is predicted on Friday night.
Roger Charlton has proclaimed all summer that his charge, Al Kazeem does not enjoy firm going. Despite these assertions he has still managed to win the Prince of Wales and the Eclipse on fast ground, however he came undone in International last month at York.
Due to this connections came to the conclusion they went to the well to many times with the horse and gave up all hope on this race before the change in weather forecast.
A horse that will not want a lot of rain is Declaration of War, he has won on soft going but not at this level. Its hard to place this horses true ability.
He bombed in the Lockinge at the start of the season when there were great things expected of him from Ballydoyle. Then he won an average Queen Anne (let’s write off Animal Kingdom’s performance in that one).
After that it looked like Al Kazeem in the Eclipse and the 3 year olds in the Sussex had a bit to spare in beating him. However in last months Judmonte International he put in a fine performance to account for Al Kazeem and Trading Leather.
Another of Aidan O’Brien’s runners of interest his Kingsbarns. Not seen since winning the Group 1 Racing Post Trophy as a 2 year old he missed most of this year with injury. It might be asking too much of him to win this first up but he has got form on soft going if it does rain.
Trading Leather is a reliable sort who put in a good performance when 2nd to Declaration of War last time. His trainer Jim Bolger has said previously he likes the ground firm so maybe avoid him if it rains. The Fugue is also a good horse but she has yet to match it against the boys.
If it does rain as expected the following are my predictions:
1. Al Kazeem 2. Declaration of War 3. Kingsbarns.
johnny nevin is a legend
Guest
Jim Bolger's wife owns both Parish Hall and Trading Leather so there was no conflict in running a pacemaker. I suppose Parish Hall had a right to give this race a go also and not be sacrificed as a pacemaker, he did win the Group 1 Dewhurst as a 2 year old. I haven't read anything about Kingsbarns regarding why he pulled up. You're right about Novellist, nothing to fear from that race. I've suspected all year that the European middle distance horses are average, the Irish Champion Stakes confirms it.
kv joef
Guest
Ended up losing interest in the Matron as well. So to see the 25/1 beating 14/1 didn't surprise me. What surprised me was Bolger not sending Parish Hall along in front for stable-mate trading leather. When i looked at the field i thought he would attempt to re-create the irish derby tempo particularly with DoW withdrawn. But instead he once again sent trading leather along at a true gallop setting up The Fugue. Apparently Kingsbarns being pulled up might not be as serious as first thought? don't think Novellist will lose any sleep.
johnny nevin is a legend
Guest
I didn't even check out the Matron form, I see La Collina won it, she won the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes as a 2 year old a couple of years ago. The Fugue put in a performance I didn't think she was capable of to win the Champion Stakes.
kv joef
Guest
Should be a good race. Any thoughts on the Matron (F&M G1 1600m) holds some value for the punt I thought - KENHOPE / CHIGUN / FIESOLANA.
johnny nevin is a legend
Guest
Change in weather forecast again, not expecting to be as much rain as first predicted, going expected to be good, should suit both Al Kazeem and Declaration of War.
Steve Mullington
Roar Rookie
War! What is he good for? Absolutely everything, back him again.
kv joef
Roar Guru
Nice overview. think the bookies will take on Al Kazeem so wouldn't go early. It is nice to see Kingsbarn stepping out again with Declaration of War and Trading Leather back home. As mentioned previously, i'll prefer Trading Leather as a 4yr-old but i continue to like his progression now. BHA also likes too raising his ranking 6pts since his Irish Derby win. He is on terms with the year older Declaration of War at 120. BHA isn't listening to Charlton and maybe backing away from Al Kazeem's 126 high, currently 124 from the International. These are his only two ratings above 119. Not sure about The Fugue, a good mare who was zippy at York (mares G1). I like the two 3 yr-olds and you would think Al Kazeem has Declaration of War at the weights ... but then again maybe not. Never know, The Fugue might just zip past the lot of them :).