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There are a number of Wallabies who are making the step up from Super Rugby simultaneously, and we are paying for this lack of Test match experience in key moments of games.
Simply put, we are not recognising and converting the opportunities we are creating, nor are we scrambling effectively to shut down the attack opportunities from our opposition.
Many of our players, and therefore the balance of the team as a whole, are lacking a ‘Test match mindset’ – the mindset that understands international teams are going to have their act together for the vast majority of the time, but that even the best sides are going to be outmanoeuvred at some point in the game and will present you with an opportunity to score.
In Test matches, those opportunities are rare, and so they simply must be finished off in attack, and killed off in defence.
These are the moments that define Test matches, and players/teams who have a Test match mindset instinctively realise the rest of the game is simply a feeling out process to create these moments.
It’s these moments that decide who scores a try, and who produces a try-saving tackle.
They decides who has to settle for three points, and who is too tired to get up off the ground and make a nuisance of themselves getting back in the defensive line.
So, what is it the All Blacks are doing that we are not?
It’s probably best to illustrate with actual examples from the most recent Test.
In the 26th minute of the game, the All Blacks regathered the ball from a midfield bomb, just on the Wallaby side of halfway.
They immediately cleared the ruck to a ball runner who took it strongly into contact, winning the collision and they got support players in behind quickly to secure the next ruck.
At this point, Will Genia raced back onside to cover a potential kick in behind the line towards touch, while James O’Connor stayed up flat to defend on the end of the line.
Jesse Mogg jogged back into position but strangely was not watching the play unfolding, instead his eyes were straight ahead towards his own tryline, and there was no sense of urgency.
At the same time, there were only four Wallabies defending on his side of the ruck, with eight All Blacks starting to position themselves in an even spread to the touch line.
This should be an absolute red alert for both teams – a half of a sniff that could be taken by the attackers, or snuffed out by the defenders.
The other side of the ruck found five Wallaby defending against three All Blacks, one of whom spotted the opportunity on the right and switched behind the ruck into first receiver to create a nine-on-four mismatch on the far side.
The ball was fed quickly from the ruck, the ball runners ran straight and transfered the ball and Stephen Moore missed a tackle, which forced O’Connor to come in to assist.
The ball was offloaded and Mogg, coming across in cover defence, also missed a tackle that forced Genia, as the last line of defence, to take the ball runner, leaving the winger unmarked.
A final draw and pass saw Ben Smith score the first try.
The contrast in how quickly and effectively each side responded to the opportunity that presented itself from the kick regather was stark.
With Genia racing back to cover the kick, should Mogg have taken a look at what was brewing and stayed in the line to cover the immediate threat of an overlap on his side?
On the other side of the ruck, why didn’t any of the defenders notice they were covering so few attackers and wonder where the rest of the All Blacks were?
Michael Hooper was defending in the ‘pillar’ or ‘rock’ position next to the ruck, so perhaps he had to stay put, but Matt Toomua, Christian Lealiifano and Adam Ashley-Cooper were all marking nobody, and were watching what was developing across the field without taking the initiative to get across and help.
Even with the mismatch, if Moore and Mogg had made those tackles, the combination of the initial slide defence and the two men coming up to cover from the deep could have seen this attack snuffed out.
In a game where only three tries were scored, the Wallabies clocked-off at this vital instant, while the All Blacks saw a ‘championship moment’ and made sure they took it.
The Wallabies created these moments, too.
One such opportunity was in the 56th minute, where the Wallabies won a lineout in the All Black 22m – rolled gold attacking territory. Every Wallaby should be at maximum concentration to make sure they come away with points.
Mogg was positioned back covering the sideline against an All Black clearance kick, in case New Zealand won the lineout. On winning the lineout, the Wallabies spread the ball nicely to Israel Folau, who was positioned in the midfield.
He ran a hard straight line, made a break and was pulled down a few metres short of the line, outside the right hand goal post.
Mogg, as fullback, walked across field from the sideline watching this play unfold. At the ruck, the Wallabies had two attackers on the right hand side of the field, a 20m wide short side, up against two All Black defenders.
Red alert on the short side.
Mogg watched the ruck, continued walking forward and toward the play, but was about 15-20 metres away from the ruck.
He was in the best position of anyone on the field to read what was happening, spot the mismatch on the short side, and present himself as the extra man on the far side of the field.
He didn’t.
Instead, he turned his shoulders back towards the open side where there were eight or nine Wallabies arrayed against a similar number of All Blacks in a 30m wide channel, and stopped.
He was not alone though. Surely someone else could have folded around behind the ruck to create the extra man that was needed?
The ball was fed by Genia to the short side, where the space was, but the play was covered in a two-on-two scenario and ended in Scott Fardy on the touch line getting a poor pass above his head and dropping it.
It sounds like I am targeting Mogg, but I actually think he did his primary jobs very well. I just don’t see the urgency in his game at the key moments to pop up in attack, or save something in defence, and he is not the only one.
That doesn’t hurt you much at Super level, where the Brumbies create many such attacking opportunities and the games are generally high scoring, but it proved the difference in Wellington.
So where to from here?
If McKenzie believes he has the right players in the side now, then he needs to stick with them and give them time to develop the experience at Test level, and the combinations with one another that are missing.
Nevertheless, it was the right call to bench Mogg this week. I mentioned two moments where he clocked off above, but there were more throughout the game that put others under pressure.
He is a very talented footballer, but he is still too naive for Test rugby.
He had a fabulous game under the high ball, and his kicking was very good. In these areas, he made an invaluable contribution to Australia’s performance.
However he needs to be rotated out of the starting side to learn to develop his mental hardness before allowing him to start again.
I would have stuck with Toomua again this week. His direct running game was excellent, his passes much better, and he is rock solid with his distance kicking and re-starts. He is pushing Quade Cooper to lift his game, too, which is a good thing.
Toomua also needs to recognise those big moments as they are occurring, and make sure he presents himself as the chief conductor to get us across the line. This is something that Quade does without exception.
Perhaps Quade is getting the message that his job also encompasses establishing rock solid restarts, less ‘sliced’ kicks in general play, and formidable defence.
Either way, there’s nothing like genuine competition for your spot to lift your game, and I would have made Quade sweat a little longer before giving him the number 10 again.
In summary, bringing in Nick Cummins to wing and putting Folau to fullback would have been my only personnel change for the next game.
Other than that, I think we need to let this team have time together. They are playing slightly easier teams for the next four games, so we will see how much they have learnt from the Bledisloe experience.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.