While there are only four sides left in this year’s AFL, they are definitely the four best sides in the competition.
Here is my preview of the two huge games of footy this weekend:
Hawthorn versus Geelong
Friday September 20, MCG, 7:50 PM (AEST)
The Kennett Curse has been a major talking point in recent times, but seriously, if the Hawks don’t break it this week, they never will!
The Hawks come into this match hot favourites and it is easy to see why – the Cats are wounded.
After losing one of the most brutal matches I have seen, against Fremantle, they then limped over the line against Port Adelaide Power.
The Geelong forward line is virtually non-existent, Tom Hawkins has a back worse than my grandma’s, James Podsiadly is horribly out of form and Nathan Vardy has been monstered in the ruck in the last two weeks.
Adding to their worries, dangerous playmaker Paul Chapman has copped a one match ban for his hit on Robbie Gray and Corey Enright is injured.
Meanwhile the Hawks are fresh, after having a week off, and get Buddy Franklin and Cyril Rioli back.
All this is a recipe for curse breaking success.
The selection table
Hawthorn: The Hawks will have to drop two unlucky players from that side that thrashed Sydney.
Journeyman Matt Spangher and one of Jed Anderson or Bradley Hill will likely make way for Franklin and Rioli
Geelong: Have some thinking to do, Josh Caddy should come back into the side for Chappy and the Cats will be hoping Tomahawk’s frail back is ok. If not, maybe youngster Shane Kersten, who kicked four goals in one half in the VFL last weekend, will be a chance to debut.
The x factors
Hawthorn: Lance Franklin.
Buddy will come back this week and he loves September.
He would be annoyed he missed out on a great win against the Swans and will want to perform. He can tear a game apart on his day.
Geelong: Steven Motlop.
This kid is a star and was unlucky to miss out on an All Australian berth.
This excitement machine has some speed and will need to perform for the Cats to have a chance
Key match ups
Jarryd Roughead versus Tom Lonergan: Roughy has become a key for the Hawks down forward and Lonergan will have to be at his best to stop the Coleman Medallist.
If Roughead kicks a bag, it is goodbye Geelong.
David Hale/Max Bailey versus Nathan Vardy/Mark Blicavs: Geelong’s rucks are a big weakness and were exploited by Freo.
In that game Aaron Sandilands gave the Dockers midfielders first use most of the time. If Hale and Bailey can also give the likes of Sam Mitchell, Luke Hodge and co. first use of the ball, Geelong will struggle to stay in touch.
The midfield battle: Hawthorn has a gun midfield but good teams can exploit their pace.
The Geelong midfielders are quicker than the Hawks. If Matthew Stokes, Steven Motlop, Steve Johnson and Allen Christensen can break away, an unlikely win could be possible.
The verdict
Hawthorn will be to good, they have a fully fit side, desperate for revenge and should outmuscle the wounded Cats.
Hawks by 30.
Fremantle versus Sydney
Saturday September 21, Subiaco Oval, 5:45 PM (AWST):
The Freo faithful will be out in full voice to cheer on their boys to their first grand final.
The Dockers were simply incredible in their win over the Cats and are now considered favourites by many to win the flag.
They will face a Sydney side who were lucky to only play Carlton last weekend.
The Swans played most of the match with only two on the bench, after Kurt Tippett and Tom Mitchell went down in the first quarter.
Add those two to an injury list which already includes Adam Goodes, Ben Reid and Rhyce Shaw and it is pretty amazing the Swans have got this far.
Freo however will be desperate to make a maiden grand final and the pressure on them will be enormous, but one thing we have learnt about Ross Lyon’s men is they can handle just about anything.
The selction table
Fremantle: The Dockers will regain All Australian defender Michael Johnson from a calf injury and also may gain half back Garrick Ibbotson from an Achilles, however Ibbotson hasn’t played for six weeks and will be a big risk.
Tom Sheridan and Cam Sutcliffe seem like the unlucky ones to make way.
Sydney: The big losses of Tippett and Mitchell mean there will be at least two forced changes.
Ben McGlynn is a chance to return from injury and swingman Lewis Roberts-Thomson played his first game for the reserves since getting injured early this season. He could come in if they decide they need another tall.
Others who could come in include Jed Lamb and Brandon Jack. Ryan O’Keefe also looked sore on Saturday but should be ok.
The x factors
Fremantle: Hayden Ballantyne.
The serial pest Ballantyne is a big time performer and loves playing in front of his home crowd. If he can get under the skins of the Sydney opponents then look out.
Brian Taylor is also commentating this match, so expect a few wowees when the little man from Mandurah does something special
Sydney: Dan Hanneberry.
Maybe the only player all year who has beaten Ryan Crowley. Hanneberry kicked four against Freo last time and will need to replicate this if the Swans are to have a fighting chance.
Key match ups
Ryan Crowley versus Jarrad McVeigh: McVeigh got 42 disposals against the Blues and 20 in the second quarter alone.
Crowley normally goes to Hanneberry but after last weekend’s display McVeigh might have earnt himself a tough night.
Crowley is the best tagger in the business and McVeigh will have his work cut out to even get half of what he got last week.
(Still amazed Crowley is not in the All Australian team!)
Matthew Pavlich versus Ted Richards: Freo’s favourite son has just one thing left on his to do list: win a premiership.
He will do everything in his power to steer Freo into the grand final. Ted Richards will have the job of stopping him.
If the Freo Skipper can kick a few, Freo may well be on there way to the ‘G next week
Aaron Sandilands/Zac Clarke versus Mike Pyke/Shane Mumford: Two of the best ruck combos in the business go head to head.
Clearances will be vital in this match and whichever star midfield gets first hands on the ball will have a big say on the result.
The verdict
Freo at home with fresh legs should be too strong for a weakened Sydney.
Fremantle by 15 points
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