Tongues are wagging across the country in anticipation of the clash between Atlantic Jewel and Puissance De Lune in today’s Group 1 Underwood Stakes. Join us on The Roar from 4.55pm AEST for a preview, live blog and post-race analysis.
It has been raining all week in Melbourne and a wet track may affect the race if rain hits Melbourne today. After heavy downpour on Wednesday, the track was expected to be rated Dead.
After winning last weekend’s Group 2 Stocks Stakes with the amount of effort she would give in a training canter, Atlantic Jewel backs up as the odd-on favourite.
The short back up would normally be a concern but under her circumstances, it won’t be. The biggest test here for the Cox Plate favourite is the 1800m trip.
She exits the sprint distance in which she is bred to run and steps up against genuine 2000m horses.
If she covers the 1800m to win with the same dominance she showed in the Memsie Stakes, it would just about erase the only remaining question mark over a Cox Plate kill.
More tantalising than just seeing her at the track, racegoers are licking their lips in anticipation for her first clash against Melbourne Cup favourite, Puissance De Lune.
Although going down narrowly in the Makybe Diva Stakes, Puissance De Lune is slowly getting out to a more suitable distance for him.
His effort a fortnight ago was full of merit and if Atlantic Jewel was not in the race, he would be the odds on favourite.
If ever there was a perfect horse to draw the widest gate, it is Puissance De Lune. He’s won that here and will drop out straight to the back before coming home with that devastating acceleration.
Darren Weir has indicated he is still not fully fit but that should not be a problem because his goal is firmly fixed as the Melbourne Cup.
There will be plenty of people taking the Atlantic Jewel – Puissance De Lune quinella.
It takes a good horse to beat Puissance De Lune and that horse is lining up here today.
Foreteller is at surprising odds considering how well he finished in the Makybe Diva Stakes but his opening price was three times that of the Cup favourite.
We now know Foreteller’s win in the Group 1 Ranvet Stakes was no fluke and he’s one of the better weight-for-age horses going around at the moment.
Sea Moon is out to make amends after slipping at the gates a fortnight ago. Although he gave the field a five length head start, he travelled reasonably before Craig Williams eased him up.
In the event of rain, Sea Moon is expected to move on the markets because his best runs in Europe have come on wet ground.
There was a big unknown factor about him before but he was crunched on the market late from $6 into 4.20 when they jumped. There are a lot of punters who have faith in this horse .
It’s A Dundeel returns to the track after a solid first-up effort in the Memsie, where he was blocked for a run at a crucial stage of the race.
It was an uncharacteristic mistake by James Macdonald but his second-up record is perfect, with two wins from two attempts.
Getting out to a more suitable distance, he is a big danger and is nicely flying under the media radar with so much attention given to others in this race.
Green Moon was probably the best finishing horse in the Memsie Stakes and he too would have found the 1400m too short. The further he gets out, the better this horse is.
He has shown excellent versatility since his Melbourne Cup win. Weights for this year’s edition were released on Wednesday and Green Moon has been given zero favours, having been allocated 57.5kg.
Owner Lloyd Williams knows the reality of how difficult is is to carry that weight to victory and it may prompt a change in strategy, with a greater emphasis on the Cox Plate.
From a stallion perspective, it would certainly make sense.
For this reason, we should expect a bold run from Green Moon and he is a big chance to run a place.
Mr Moet has matched it against most of these horses in autumn but he looked to be struggling in the Makybe Diva.
He has Damien Oliver on board and this will be his first Group 1 ride since returning from suspension. As good as he is, it will take the ride of his career to get up today.
Ethiopia’s first-up run in the Makybe Diva Stakes was enough to suggest he is fit, healthy and progressing nicely towards the Melbourne Cup. He was not ridden out a fortnight ago and it’s unlikely he will today either.
Today’s race will be the most interesting race we have seen Atlantic Jewel in so far. By no means is victory assured for her because the further in distance she goes, the more it will suit her opponents.
She’s still the class horse here but this will be harder than her Memsie win.
Alfred Chan’s tips
1. Atlantic Jewel
2. It’s A Dundeel
3. Puissance De Lune
4. Green Moon
Justin Cinque’s tips
1. Atlantic Jewel
2. Foreteller
3. It’s A Dundeel
4. Puissance De Lune
Andrew Hawkins’ tips
1. Atlantic Jewel
2. It’s A Dundeel
3. Silent Achiever
4. Walkpark
Cameron Rose’s tips
1. Atlantic Jewel
2. Foreteller
3. Sea Moon
4. Waldpark
Roar writers 2013 Spring Carnival tipping tally (five points if winning horse is tipped for first; three points if tipped for second; two for third and one for fourth):
After week five
Alfred Chan: 21
Justin Cinque: 15
Cameron Rose: 13
Andrew Hawkins: 12
Glenn Innes
Guest
Judging the strength of competing form lines is the real trick to punting and it can be a very tricky thing to do - it is easy to be wise with the value of hindsight . Doing your own weight ratings is your best chance ( you can't just use timeform their figures are total crap - I learnt that the painful way) but there is so much work involved I have given it away I use database based systems based on price , trainer and jockey these days.so I don't know the horse the way I used to but I can see the bleeding obvious when it presents itself - the Kiwi horse was underrated. and probably still is given the hype around the mare, the rest of that field despite the hype, were old timers, dour stayers and straight handicappers - the real deal ran one and two.
Glenn Innes
Guest
Analysing races is a funny thing - sometimes we start searching for reasons why what we thought would happen didn't happen.The mare had a soft uncontested lead but was beaten - two different form lines collided here and punters underestimated one of those formlines, the Kiwi horse will win the plate if it stays fit.
Glenn Innes
Guest
Alfred she is defnitely not my Cox Plate favourite, Sunline excepted (and I am yet to be convinced she is in that class she hasn't bolted in a Doncaster) the Cox Plate is usually one by horses that can run 2400 and I don't think she can, she is my Cox Plate lay.
Glenn Innes
Guest
Rodd was obviosly looking at the lack of pace in the race and felt leading was the way to go and it is hard to disagree, It's A Dundeal covered more ground it was the better run even allowing that the inside may have been off - I think Atlantic Jewel is really a 7-8 horse beyond that she is vulnerable if their is real class in the race.It's a different world against your own age and sex.
johnny nevin is a legend
Roar Pro
It's hard to imagine a coolmore horse making all the running under Aidan O'Brien.She certainly set up the race for Its A Dundeel although he did work hard for it, he's a tough horse, I think the extra 200m in the Cox Plate will suit him a lot more than the mare.
Alfred Chan
Expert
Apologies to James Mcdonald. I've been spelling his surname wrong all day.
Alfred Chan
Expert
To my knowledge, Coolmore does not have anything in Australia and in training which is capable of making the Cox Plate field. I'm not particularly sure what the stewards attitudes are towards pacemaking in Australia. Gai Waterhouse does it a lot! But then again, the stewards hate her haha. These days if any horse gets out to more than a 5L lead in running, they have to answer to the stewards but they normally just get a slap on the wrist. This won't happen but from a tactical perceptive, Coolmore could look into buying a broodmare prospect which would make the Cox Plate field, enter her, set the pace and then retire her. It won't happen but they did buy Sea Siren and Nechita in the past 6 months...
johnny nevin is a legend
Roar Pro
I thought using a pacemaker is frowned upon in Australian racing Alfred? As you point out the connections would have to be the same, has Atlantic Jewels owners any other horses they are willing to sacrifice?
peter swanell
Guest
Great run by Happy Trails. Those that think he cant run more than 1600 are kidding themselves. Just watch the Queen Elizabeth Stakes where he was strong to the line and a bees @#$% behind Its a Dundeel. He was always going to the Cox Plate this year
Alfred Chan
Expert
I stand corrected! It's A Dundeel is into $3.00 on Cox Plate markets. Atlantic Jewel was $1.50 this morning but is now out to $3.50.
Alfred Chan
Expert
Roarers, that's it from me today. It's been a fantastic day of racing with It's A Dundeel edging out Atlantic Jewel. I'm still trying to get my head around that outstanding finish to the Underwood Stakes. It was brilliant tactical riding from James Macdonald who would not have been prepared to ride the race he did. Disappointing to see Atlantic Jewel's unbeaten streak come to an end but they took a risk riding right on the speed and it hasn't paid off. Don't make too much of it, she'll bounce back and is still the Cox Plate favourite. We hope you've backed a few winners and look forward to you joining us next time.
Alfred Chan
Expert
Sea Moon was very disappointing. He only beat Ethiopia home and Sea Moon should have lapped up this distance. He was one that would have loved anything but Atlantic Jewel to lead because he couldn't keep up with the tempo and didn't have the sprint at the end.
Alfred Chan
Expert
Manighar was also very good. I think he's finding some of his old form. I can't see him challenging for a Cox Plate or Melbourne Cup but he could be a Mackinnon chance.
Alfred Chan
Expert
So where to next for all of these superstar horses? They will likely diverge with some heading to the Turnbull Stakes in two weeks time and others heading to the Caulfied Stakes in three weeks time. I would expect Atlantic Jewel to head to the Caulfield Stakes and based on James Macdonald's interview I'm guessing they will clash again in three weeks time. I'd expect Green Moon, Puissance De Lune, Sea Moon and Dear Demi to go to the Turnbull though.
Alfred Chan
Expert
Good call, Hawk.
Alfred Chan
Expert
Dear Demi was fantastic. Brad Rawiller gave her a very smart ride and she'll continue her progression towards the Melbourne Cup.
Andrew Hawkins
Expert
Mull of Killough, who will get into the race, will set the pace and ensure a strong tempo. Either that or, as Justin suggested, a lightweight three year old will ensure a solid tempo.
Alfred Chan
Expert
Puissance De Lune's run was alright. It wasn't particularly great but he made up solid ground from the back. He was never a winning chance but I think he'll be drifting further on Cox Plate markets based on that run.
Alfred Chan
Expert
From that run, Atlantic Jewel is not as effective taking up the pace. I think Kav needs to look to European racing and sure up Atlantic Jewel's chance by entering a pacemaker in the race to provide cover and set a solid tempo for Atlantic Jewel to come over the top. The good news for him, he has a horse named Super Cool would fit the profile. The horses are owned by different connections though.
Alfred Chan
Expert
Michael Rodd took up the pace because which not many were expecting. She led all the way into straight and found a kick. Great move by James Macdonald to stick on her and settle second. he was never more than 2L away from Atlantic Jewel and just outstayed the champion mare.