Grand final talking points and Norm Smith predictions

We’re only a few sleeps away from what will be a fantastic grand final. Both teams deserve their praise and both certainly deserve to be there.

No doubt there will be many talking points in the lead up to the game. Here are just a few to get the tongues in the office wagging.

Hawthorn’s inaccuracy
Hawthorn has kicked 33 behinds in its first two finals matches. It needs to do better in the big dance if it is going to defeat a Fremantle team that is playing their best defensive football of the year.

There is no doubt that the Hawks have the right talent to be able to set up scoring opportunities – being able to finish them is a different story all together.

Hawthorn’s slickness
Boy, do they play some good football when they are on song.

Their ability to move the ball from end to end is unrivalled in the competition. They play a different style of game to the run and carry style of Geelong and Sydney.

Hawthorn like to hold and control the ball by foot, and their ability to switch the play and run it either along the wings or through the middle could cut Fremantle open.

Either way, it will be the biggest test of Fremantle’s defensive pressure all year.

Fremantle’s defensive pressure
Allowing a measly nine goals against the Cats and 11 against the Swans, these stats don’t do justice to how well Fremantle are defending.

Fremantle had held the reigning premiers to just five goals inside the first three quarters, and the Swans’ score of 2.2.14 at the half-time break is their lowest score in any final.

The Swans kicked all their goals in a period when the game was over,making the scoreboard look respectable. But Fremantle’s dominance of the Swans can mirror that of the Hawthorn effort in week one of the finals.

In Fremantle’s last two meetings with Hawthorn (both at Aurora), the Dockers have conceded 119 and 118 points. Do the Hawks have the key to the Dockers’ defence?

In saying that, Fremantle’s pressure last weekend was fanatical. There is no time and there is no space when you are playing the Dockers.

Crowley factor
Forget about the fact that he is perhaps the biggest pest in the game and just admire his pure ability to destroy the confidence of the players he is playing on.

This guy is an absolute star.

Playing on arguably Sydney’s best game breaker in Kieren Jack, he kept the rampant midfielder to just 11 touches while collecting 22 disposals and a goal himself.

There is no doubt Ross Lyon watched Friday night’s preliminary final, and it wouldn’t take Einstein to figure out who Crowley will go too.

Sam Mitchell had a season-high 38 disposals against the Cats, and Lyon will look to replicate the Swans’ model from last year’s grand final where Mitchell’s effectiveness was cut down by Ryan O’Keefe.

If Crowley can do the same thing, then Fremantle will go a long way to winning the grand final.

That’s not to say that other Hawthorn players aren’t as important, just that Sam Mitchell’s impact is worth goals to Hawthorn.

Freo’s MCG curse
Forget it, there is no such thing as a curse.

For anyone saying that Fremantle’s pressure won’t stand up to a big ground they obviously forget where Fremantle play most of their football.

Paterson’s can be compared to the MCG as it is a wide and long ground, so there is no doubt that Fremantle will be able to adapt with ease.

Still, the Dockers history at the MCG makes for interesting reading. They’ve won there just 12 times in 41 attempts.

Under Lyon, the Dockers have won three out of five matches at the MCG, including last year’s cutthroat elimination final against then reigning premiers Geelong. Lyon is a firm believer that history means nothing.

This showed when they beat the Cats in the first week of finals, after the Cats had won 43 of their previous 44 at Simonds Stadium and the Dockers had won there just once in 13 visits.

Have the Hawks already played their grand final?
Not a chance! This Hawthorn Football Club is determined for success and they accept anything less than a premiership marks their season as a failure.

Losing a grand final in 2012 will only drive them to rectify that this year. Being labelled “underachievers” is one thing, being labelled “chokers” is another.

Anyone that thinks this Hawthorn team isn’t ready is kidding themselves.

Buddy’s last game as a Hawk?
Could this be the last time we see Lance Franklin in a Hawthorn jumper?

Most signs point to yes, but we will have to wait and see.

Franklin will need to have a greater impact then he did last week if the Hawks are to win.

Hawks don’t want too become to “Buddy” conscious. Stats show that in games where Franklin doesn’t play the Hawks score more points, which can be put down to their unpredictability.

Norm Smith Medal Predictions

Fremantle – Nathan Fyfe
The guy is an absolute jet, he kicks goals, gets contested possessions and is able to hit targets.

Not to mention the fact he is also a crucial cog in the Fremantle engine room and led Fremantle’s Brownlow count on Monday night, so you know he can catch the eye of the umpires.

Other notables
Michael Barlow, David Mundy, Michael Walters, Aaron Sandilands.

Hawthorn – Shaun Burgoyne
Had 24 disposals and kicked a crucial goal to put Hawthorn in front in the preliminary final, when he was clearly the Hawks’ second best player.

His ability to create turnovers and force pressure inside Hawthorn’s forward 50 led to scoring opportunities for Hawthorn. Not to mention his second, third and fourth efforts at every contest.

On top of this, he gathered 28 disposals the last time the Hawks played Fremantle, and I am selecting him on the basis that the Hawks will need someone else to stand up assuming Sam Mitchell will get the tag.

Other Notables
Luke Hodge, Jarryd Roughead, Brad Sewell, Grant Birchall.

How each team can win

Hawthorn
Through weight of scoring opportunities. If they are able to put on early scoring pressure, it will go a long way to securing victory.

Producing scoreboard pressure will more than likely make Fremantle nervous that their structures aren’t working correctly and place pressure on young players in their first grand final.

The player who receives the Crowley tag must be able to break it and win that battle.

Fremantle
Through fanatical pressure that chokes the Hawthorn outfit, they too need to be able to counter attack the Hawthorn offence.

If they can stick to the same structures from the game against Sydney, then they will be more then capable of staying in the game and winning it.