2013 Grand Final: a hazy day for hawking

What mascot or emblem do you think Australia will wake up to on Sunday the 29th of September? The majority of the country would have thoughts of a golden hawk, like the one shown on the grand final Footy Show.

However I think it will be one of two designs – either the beachy, blonde-haired mascot wearing a Fremantle jumper, or just a plain purple anchor.

The latter has a lot of power behind such a simple symbol, as this is what the Fremantle Dockers have been like all year.

They have had a basic forward and defensive press, which has a lot more power than anyone would have thought.

Just ask West Coast, the Western Bulldogs, Richmond, Gold Coast, Collingwood, Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide, Brisbane, North Melbourne, St Kilda, Carlton, GWS, Port Adelaide and Geelong.

All 15 of those teams have succumbed to the pressure of the until-now underrated Dockers, who have breezed through September to set up a mouth-watering clash against the all-conquering Hawthorn Hawks.

As for the list of teams Hawthorn have beaten this year, well, it’s a lot easier to say they have only lost three times; twice to Geelong and once to Richmond.

They have gotten even better than last year, where their meteoritic rise to the top was halted by Sydney in the big dance.

It is the ultimate clash of attack versus defence, with Hawthorn scoring an average 114 points a match, the highest of any team this year.

But on the opposite end of the spectrum is Fremantle, who have only averaged 69 points scored against them per match, comfortably the best defensive side in the AFL this year.

The Dockers have the best defensive coach going around, Ross Lyon, structuring a wonderful defence which includes the likes of 2013 All-Australian Michael Johnson, Luke McPharlin, Garrick Ibbotson, Lee Spurr, Zac Dawson, Tendai Mzungu and Alex Silvagni.

But the Hawks’ forward line is just as dangerous, featuring the renowned Lance Franklin, Coleman Medallist Jarryd Roughead, Jack Gunston, Cyril Rioli, Stephen Hill, Paul Puopolo, Luke Breust and occasionally David Hale, Jordan Lewis and Shaun Burgoyne.

For the grand final, here are some key factors:

Match-ups

Luke McPharlin versus Buddy Franklin
With Buddy’s grand performance in last year’s losing grand final earning him heaps of respect from the other AFL clubs, Alastair Clarkson has attempted and succeeded in making his team less reliant on the champion Hawk by pushing him up the ground more.

It makes it even harder for opposition defences to man up on Buddy, with his aerobic capacity being more likely to run a key defender into the ground.

But against Geelong, Buddy faded, only kicking a goal and not looking as dangerous inside the forward 50. He did, however, commonly run up the ground and send dangerous kicks into the forward 50 for his Hawthorn teammates.

But if anyone can match-up on the talented Hawk, it is the miserly Luke McPharlin, who has come back from a calf injury to strengthen up the Dockers superb backline.

McPharlin has to be at his best to quell the influence of Franklin, and I believe he can restrict Buddy to only a couple of goals at the most in what might be Franklin’s last game for Hawthorn.

Zac Dawson versus Jarryd Roughead
The slightly edgy but highly skilled Zac Dawson will probably be set to match-up against Coleman Medallist Jarryd Roughead. But he may have it a tiny bit easier, as Roughead is known to fade in finals.

Last year against Sydney, Roughead disappeared and left it all up to Buddy.

But this year the move of Franklin has re-energised Roughead, who has played his best season so far after coming back from an Achilles injury last year.

Even though Roughead is a high quality contested mark, his real strength is the ground ball, where he can hurt the tall defenders he plays on by running them ragged on ground level.

But with the manic pressure Fremantle always brings, plus the contested ball accumulated in finals, Roughead will find it hard to out run the smaller Dawson on ground level.

He will have to dominate the ex-Saint in the air, and he may only get a couple of goals for it.

Michael Johnson versus Jack Gunston
After his impressive display against Geelong, where he carried the Hawks with Burgoyne, Gunston is looming as the x-factor in the grand final.

With Michael Johnson only coming back last week against Sydney, the All-Australian will have to be at his best against the great youngster.

He certainly has Gunston covered in the air, but on the ground level is where Gunston can kill him.

If Gunston starts off well, a swap with Lee Spurr may just quell the influence of the impressive ex-Crow.

But how that will turn out depends on Michael Johnson.

Nathan Fyfe versus Sam Mitchell
With Sam Mitchell starring for Hawthorn off the half back flank last week, Mitchell may start in the backline again.

He collected 38 magnificent possessions against Geelong, but he may be needed in the middle against the talented Freo midfield.

If Fyfe can start off well and dominate the centre clearances with Barlow, then Mitchell may be forced to play in the middle, where he has been awfully quiet in the previous two grand finals he has played.

In a huge match-up, the winner of these two may win a premiership and a Norm Smith Medal.

Matthew Pavlich versus Brian Lake
With the champion captain of the Dockers finally getting to participate in a grand final, expect him to come out with all guns firing like he did against Geelong in the 2012 elimination final at the MCG.

If the Dockers ever fall into a lull, expect the Pav to kick the goal that keep the team’s hopes up.

With Aaron Sandilands expected to win the majority of the ruck taps, Brian Lake will have to be on his toes ready to spoil away a quick clearance.

The former Bulldog will have to play out of his skin to keep the Docker captain quiet, who will most likely lead his team like he has in many a final beforehand.

Stephen Hill versus Isaac Smith
Stephen Hill will most likely not line-up against his brother Bradley, but expect Hill to be the key if the Dockers are to capture the flag.

The only real difference between Smith and Hill is Hill is more established and has perhaps more class and polish than the younger Smith. But both are speedy and damaging left foot wingers who can break open a game at will.

With the outside run being so important when the contested ball is going to be so close, the more influential of these two could well determine the winning side.

This is the other battle which may determine the winner of the Norm Smith Medal.

Stats
• The last time these two teams met was in Round 4 this year, where the Hawks ran over the Dockers by 42 points at Aurora Stadium.

The Hawks kept the Dockers scoreless in the first term and kicked five goals of their own to bounce away to a comfortable win.

X-factor player Grant Birchall collected 37 touches, with the Dockers not too disheartened as they were without McPharlin and Pavlich, the talismans of both ends for Freo.

• The Hawks have won the last six of seven matches against Freo, with a 116 point thrashing in 2010 being the highlight of it.

In the past four matches the Hawks have an average winning margin of 43 points, but the only time the Dockers beat the Hawks in that streak was in the 2010 elimination final, where the Dockers beat the Hawks by 30 points in a tense final at Paterson’s Stadium.

• Hawthorn have played in 16 grand finals, with a record of ten wins and six losses, including last year’s heartbreaker.

Meanwhile, the Dockers are playing in their first grand final, with only Zac Dawson (Saints 2009-2010) and Danyle Pearce (Port 2007) having played in grand finals, compared to Hawthorn’s 23 players, highlighted by Shaun Burgoyne with three (Port 2004, 2007, Hawks 2012).

• The Dockers have a 50% success rate in finals, playing ten for a win-loss record of 5-5. The Hawks have played in 74 finals for a win-loss record of 46-28, a 61% success rate.

• The Dockers have played twice at the MCG in 2013 for one loss and one win. They went down to Richmond by 27 points, but beat Melbourne by 95 points in Round 17.

They have played two finals there for one win and one loss, both to Geelong, with the latest being the win against Geelong in the 2012 elimination final.

• Ross Lyon, the Fremantle coach, is coaching in his fourth grand final, coaching three at St Kilda in 2009 and 2010 for a draw and two losses.

Alastair Clarkson is coaching in his third grand final, with the other two both at the helm of Hawthorn in 2008 and 2012, where they recorded one win and one loss.

Tip
This match is extremely hard to tip. It all depends on whether the Hawks forwards stand up to the Dockers’ pressure.

If they do, Hawthorn will win by 15 points.

But if the Dockers pressure makes Hawthorn go quiet, like Franklin, Rioli and Roughead did last week, then Gunston and Burgoyne won’t be able to carry them again and Stephen Hill and Pavlich will run amok in a 21-point win to Fremantle.

But it is a grand final, anything can happen.