With the best month of racing for the year right on our doorstep, it is easy to look towards the many positives – for example, the sheer quality of horseflesh this spring, or the many feel-good stories that may emerge.
But an article by The Age’s Michael Lynch last weekend made the first mention of what may become the biggest issue to plague racing this Spring Carnival.
It is an issue which has been mentioned by shrewd judges on social media before, but Lynch’s article seemed to give it vindication – a very real acknowledgement that one of our great races may be spoiled by greed and ambition.
On Saturday, while the eyes of all Melburnians and most Australians were firmly fixed on the Melbourne Cricket Ground ahead of the AFL Grand Final, the first European raiders here to tackle the Spring Carnival snuck into the designated quarantine facility at Werribee.
Among this group of horses were Cups contenders Dandino, Simenon and Forgotten Voice, as well as progressive stayers Opinion and Ruscello.
They were joined by Trevieres, an impressive miler who will aim at the Toorak Handicap before a potential assault on the Caulfield Cup or the Cox Plate, as well as top Australian sprinter Shamexpress, returning from his Royal Ascot sojourn.
But the two gallopers aboard the Singapore Airlines Cargo flight with the potential to dominate the headlines this spring were Cox Plate invitees Side Glance and Mull Of Killough.
As a result of the Moonee Valley Racing Club’s extensive international drive, both are guaranteed a run in the Cox Plate as guests of the club.
It’s a matter of debate and personal opinion whether either horse is worthy of a free ticket into our weight-for-age championship.
Side Glance is a dual Group 3 winner owned in the same interests as Dunaden.
He has placed at Group 1 level twice, including a distant third to Frankel in that unforgettable romp in the Queen Anne Stakes last year – he finished eleven and a half lengths behind Frankel, but only a neck behind Excelebration.
He was also five lengths clear of 2011 Cox Plate favourite Helmet.
At his last start he finished an unlucky third to Real Solution in the Arlington Million.
Mull Of Killough was three lengths behind Side Glance that day, finishing eighth in Chicago after leading. He is also a dual Group 3 winner, while he finished fifth to Military Attack in the Singapore International Cup in May.
However, he’s yet to finish in the placings in a Group 1.
I’m all for the globalisation of the Cox Plate, but invitees should have to earn a spot in the final field of the race.
And that is where the problem lies, laying the foundations for what could be the biggest controversy this spring – if 14 Group 1 winners accept for the Cox Plate, who does the Moonee Valley Racing Club omit in order to let two Group 3 runners from England take their place?
One only needs to look at the likely field for Saturday’s Turnbull Stakes to understand how big an issue this could potentially become, one which could dwarf the Taufan’s Melody saga of 1998.
That year, Taufan’s Melody was elevated into the Caulfield Cup field despite not having the necessary prizemoney to qualify.
He was entered at the expense of Colin Alderson’s Our Unicorn, a winner of the Naturalism Stakes (at that time not offering ballot exemption) and third in the Craiglee Stakes and the Turnbull Stakes.
To make matters worse, Taufan’s Melody won the Caulfield Cup at monstrous odds after jockey Ray Cochrane knocked over half the field.
The Caulfield Cup was one thing, but the Cox Plate – our weight for age championship – is another matter entirely.
As an example of the potential ramifications, look at the Underwood Stakes field from a week and a half ago, widely considered to be the best race in terms of depth this year, if not for a number of years.
11 of the fourteen 14 were Group 1 winners – Australian Derby winners It’s A Dundeel and Ethiopia, Memsie Stakes winner Atlantic Jewel, Crown Oaks winner Dear Demi, Emirates Stakes winner Happy Trails, Australian Cup winner Manighar, New Zealand Derby winner Silent Achiever, Railway Stakes winner Mr Moet, Melbourne Cup winner Green Moon, German Derby winner Waldpark and Makybe Diva Stakes winner Foreteller.
The only horses who were yet to win at Group 1 level were Puissance de Lune, a last start second at Group 1 level, a two time Group 2 winner and the long-term Melbourne Cup favourite; Sea Moon, probably the best non-Group 1 winner currently racing in Australia on the strength of his victories in the Great Voltigeur Stakes and the Hardwicke Stakes; and My Quest for Peace, fifth in last year’s Caulfield Cup.
Hypothetically, say those 14 runners were to all accept for the Cox Plate. Who would the Moonee Valley Racing Club exclude to make way for the two internationals?
In all likelihood, My Quest for Peace would be the first horse excluded, as he is yet to place at Group 1 level. Puissance de Lune (second, Makybe Diva Stakes) and Sea Moon (third, English St Leger) both fit the Group 1 placegetter criterion, as does Side Glance (third, Arlington Million and Queen Anne Stakes).
However, from there, it gets murky, and one of Puissance de Lune or Sea Moon – or perhaps a horse like Waldpark, who ran King George winner Novellist to a head in May – would be excluded. It hardly seems right.
Of the Underwood field, Ethiopia, Dear Demi, Manighar, Silent Achiever, Mr Moet, Waldpark and My Quest For Peace are unlikely to head to the Cox Plate, opening up six spots.
But once classy horses like Fiorente, Super Cool and Sacred Falls are added, as well as three year olds Guelph, Prince Harada, Drago and Long John, it seems there will be at least one set of connections left disappointed.
Attrition always occurs, and there’s plenty of time yet. There will probably be one or two horses who fall by the wayside, but there are also likely to be some horses who target the race unexpectedly.
For example, a horse like Hawkspur could easily back up after the Caulfield Cup, as could Ethiopia or Dear Demi.
So what will the club do if there are more than 14 acceptances? If the circumstances are so, how will they justify leaving out better credentialed horses in order to have international participation?
No matter what, it’s a far cry from the days of Stutt and McEwen, hard administrators who made it their mission to preserve the quality of the Cox Plate.
During their reign, horses had to meet certain benchmarks to be allowed to start in the Cox Plate. To them, a full field didn’t matter – quality prevailed over quantity.
This saw some surprises when certain horses were not allowed to start.
Take 1984 Melbourne Cup winner Black Knight, rejected from the 1985 Cox Plate because he was “merely a handicapper” using the Moonee Valley race as a prep race for his defence of the Melbourne Cup.
Or what about Cole Diesel in 1989, who “didn’t have the form” for a Cox Plate – despite winning the Toorak Handicap and the Caulfield Cup at his two previous starts?
Just a decade ago, things came to a head when Caulfield Guineas Prelude winner Elvstroem, fifth in the Caulfield Guineas itself two weeks before the race, was denied a start in the Cox Plate because he did not meet the ‘criteria’ to get a run.
Instead, he went to the AAMI Vase, where he was beaten by Kempinsky, before turning the tables in recording a Victoria Derby victory.
His career would then take him all over the world, winning the Underwood Stakes, the Caulfield Cup, the Orr Stakes and the Dubai Duty Free.
It was perhaps the spectre of Elvstroem which saw the Moonee Valley Racing Club relax their rules regarding entries.
Just five years later, in 2008, the club allowed Raheeb to contest the Cox Plate.
Raheeb had won the Cameron Handicap, a Group 3 at Newcastle, earlier that preparation before a 13th in the Epsom Handicap and a fifth in the Toorak Handicap.
He must be the only Cox Plate runner to have never won at a metropolitan track before he lined up at the top of the Moonee Valley straight – his three wins had come at Wyong, Port Macquarie and Newcastle, although he had finished second in Group 2 and Group 3 races in Sydney and Brisbane.
The following year, So You Think – with very similar form to Elvstroem – was allowed to run in the Cox Plate, sneaking in after Epsom Handicap winner Rangirangdoo was redirected to the Crystal Mile.
His all-the-way win, which ranks as this writer’s favourite racing moment, ensured Australia’s weight-for-age championship would now be more open.
The downfalls of that policy, though, may be exposed for all to see this spring, as some of Australia’s best gallopers face the prospect of not making the cut for the Cox Plate.
Bill
Guest
Couldnt agree anymore. Someone must be getting a sling. I remember when strawberry road went overseas he was invited on the back of being 4x group one winner ( and not these banana group ones). Sick to death of the garbage and biased commentary too. Can someone please tell these fools the true stars are the derby winner backing up and then winning the cox plate. Check the list and then narrow it down to geldings against entires. Go it's a dundeel. He could be a real champion and join that elite list.
Joshua Kayll
Roar Rookie
80-1
Andrew Peacock
Guest
Andrew, what odds will you give me Mull of Killough in the Cox Plate?
Steve Mullington
Roar Rookie
Do European runners create extra interest in your races and add extra revenue to your gates or is there no significant impact? One suspects it all down to the calibre of the horse?
johnny nevin is a legend
Roar Pro
Justin, the top earning middle distance Europeans according to the Racing Post are as follows: Ruler Of The World £816,340 Declaration Of War £752,690 Al Kazeem £639,294 Sky Lantern £625,044 Novellist £603,962 Trading Leather £422,475 Libertarian £422,209 Talent £393,410 Apart from the Derby winner Ruler of the World the rest of these horses have had several races to amount this money. With prize money of about £1 million sterling to the winner, the Cox plate definitely should be worth consideration by European trainers. A horse like Snow Fairy had the perfect profile for this race, she loved fast ground and being a mare with less earning potential as a breeder than the colts it was in connections interest to follow the dollars. Aidan O'Brien has a good 2 year old out of Galileo and champion mare Ouija Board, his name? Australia, maybe he's a future Cox Plate runner.
Andrew Moonee
Guest
This is why the MVRC is very clever NOT to have set criteria - that way it really is "Committee discretion" in the literal sense. I doubt they will be changing it any time soon. Sometimes it works - So You Think, sometimes it's a bust - Pinker Pinker but it is what it is. The question is has the Cox Plate been any less a race because it has lacked international fire power? The answer isn't clear cut but having B+ international runners isn't going to answer it until we get a Frankel, Workforce, Cirres etc type come here and WIN!
Justin Cinque
Expert
It's a huge scare tactic built by the media. Some won't handle it but most do. And for the 1% that hate it, there's 1% that love it and can't lose around there.
Justin Cinque
Expert
The World Series got Grandera so it did well. The next Grandera may win the thing and Bang! the Cox Plate is in business. Would love them to do the jockeys thing - will be a big winner for Australian racing. Will create media attention here and abroad. And just on clubs paying jockeys to ride... About four years ago I had a person from the AJC (think from their marketing dept) tell me on the record one of the reasons why it cost $40 up from $20 to get into the AJC Derby was they had to pay jockeys to ride at the meeting. To this day I think he was lying. And in hindsight I probably should have challenged him on the point! But supposedly it has happened.
Bondy
Guest
I think the valley frightens a lot of european horses away there running up a straight of 7-9 furlongs at times , I recall Cumani not wanting to race something around there.
Andrew Hawkins
Expert
It may be considered defeatist, but it's also realism. It just won't measure up to those races!!! You've got to remember, they are in the business of making stallions. Would Coolmore want an Arc winner or a Cox Plate winner? Not a hard choice. I love Moonee Valley as a spectator. It makes for exciting racing, and it separates the men from the boys (figuratively speaking). The only reason I raise it is that it is a major stumbling block in the thoughts of connections bringing horses here. A horse like Frankel would have thrived around Moonee Valley IMO, but they would never have wanted to try him. Now, I like your idea of getting ambassadors to ride at the meeting and promote it in their home countries. But the bonus system has been tried - the Emirates World Series - and apart from Grandera, it pretty much failed. So yes, it may be a defeatist attitude, but I think there needs to be a sense of realism. Where it is currently placed on the calendar, it would never work. The only way it could possibly work, in my opinion, would be to look at other parts of the year - and then it wouldn't work for other reasons. As we said earlier this year, though, it just needs one big name European winner for the floodgates to open. Side Glance/Mull of Killough will not fulfil that purpose.
Justin Cinque
Expert
Heck, if it wasn't for Bossy leading, his true talent may have been hidden away for a lot longer. I can see him trying it again this year with PDL. And if he wins, the salute will be enormous!
Justin Cinque
Expert
Now Hawk don't take this the wrong way but if we're going to make the Cox Plate a real world championship race or at least try to get the best from Europe here, we (Australian racing as a whole) need to lose this defeatist attitude Why should the best come here for the Cox Plate? Because the Cox Plate is a race of champions. The best race in the southern hemisphere at WFA by a mile. This is our Arc! People have to stop using the Moonee Valley track as a negative. It can be one of the fairer tracks in Australian racing when the rail is true or close to true. Its small shape often leads to pressure in races and when combined with one of the longest side straights in racing (allows the backmarkers to move up before the straight) horses from the back do get their chance in middle distance races. But the short straight gives on-pacers their chance as well. If a horse can handle themselves on their left leg then they can get around Moonee Valley generally. Big misconception about big horses struggling at the Valley. Behemoth mares Sunline and Black Caviar loved the place. We often speak about Australian horses going to England to boost their stallion credentials in the NH. With so many NH stallions eventually shuttling to Australia, should the MVRC be playing the stud value card a bit more? If I was the MVRC, I'd contract six of the best jockeys from around the world (guys like Hughes, Dettori, Barzalona even Mike Smith from the US) to ride at the meeting and pay them ambassadorial money to promote the Cox Plate in their home countries - to media and trainers. I'd offer $1m bonus to any Northern Hemisphere stallion who can win entry into the race on merit and win. And a $2m bonus to any horse that can win any one of say the Queen Anne/Prince of Wales's/Sussex/Eclipse/English or French Guineas/Prix du Moulin and Cox Plate. I'd invite the best ten middle-distance horses in the world - that's it - and offer to pay expenses if they come. Many of these horses will be racing for $2m in prize and $3m in bonuses. Arc aside, how many races in Europe offer than sort of prizemoney. I'd aim to get a genuine superstar out here within 3 years and an international winner within 8-10 years. With a bit of luck it may work. I hope organisers of the Sydney International Champion's Cup are taking notes as well ;)
Casper
Guest
my issue with all these raiders is they seem to get into group races with 5-6 starters & run a place beaten out of sight, but still giving them the group form line. Additionally, in the UK the jump races have group status & trainers fluctuate betwen flat & jumps which builds their cv. In truth, we get the middle of the second tier & top of the third tier to Australia & that's the best we can expect for the Melbourne cup with it being a handicap. I'm not sure the Cox plate will ever grab their attention with a saucer track & restricted fields. I reckon our top races have suffered with the push to go to WFA in everything. Used to love the lightweight in big fields (e.g. Craigola in the 10,000), but raised minimums & artificially controlled top weights have ruined that. Do we follow the overseas trend of excluding geldings from classics? TJ Smith would being aghast at retiring the 3YO's after a few top wins, he brought Tulloch back after more than a year out & being near death.
Andrew Hawkins
Expert
I agree with certain parts of your comment Will. I agree it has had enormous benefits for the industry, and that the process has entered a new phase. I'm just not sure how restrictive we should be. I don't want to see the Melbourne Cup restricted to horses who have raced in Australia. This year's a great example. Some great horses will be among the batch who go into quarantine tomorrow, and they'll just be here for a hit and run mission. I don't want to stop that.
Andrew Hawkins
Expert
Yes, I remember that about Jezabeel/Champagne - although Taufan's Melody was a gritty fourth.
Andrew Hawkins
Expert
Spot on Sam. I mean, we've had some international superstars in recent years - how could you forget Macau champion Luen Yat Forever?? Hahaha.
Andrew Hawkins
Expert
I agree, I think 2400m is too far but Kav has said the Caulfield Cup is his race. That said, if Atlantic Jewel doesn't run out a strong 2000m in the Caulfield Stakes, then perhaps he'll run Super Cool. Remember, he backed up Maldivian after he ran 9th in the Caulfield Cup, and he won the Cox Plate!
Andrew Hawkins
Expert
Continuing your analogy Justin, the Buddy Franklins of European racing will not look to Melbourne, full stop. Why would they miss out on the chance to target the Arc, the Champion Stakes (or the QEII Stakes), the Breeders' Cup Classic (or Turf or Mile) and a number of lesser races around Europe for a race in Australia around the tight Moonee Valley circuit? Except for exceptional circumstances - Grandera for one - the best you can hope for is to elevate a reserve. At this time of year, Australia's weight for age race resembles the NAB Cup, while the weight for age races of the northern hemisphere represent finals footy. And I think recent years demonstrate you cannot buy participation from the top Europeans. As for whether the MVRC will be forced to make a tough decision, I tend to think you are right at this stage. But this Saturday is crucial in determining the spring path of many horses - the Epsom tends to throw up a Cox Plate contender or two. Maybe horses like Rekindled Interest (I've never been a fan but I think he's in the Epsom up to his ears) and Lidari could become Cox Plate chances. If Guelph wins the Thousand Guineas, Long John/Prince Harada win the Caulfield Guineas and Drago wins the Spring Champion, you could have three 3YOs there. And who knows, the Caulfield Guineas winner could pay the late entry fee - a horse like El Roca would be great in a Cox Plate!
Andrew Hawkins
Expert
No one. But I don't mind having international runners if they are of a calibre to measure up.
Andrew Hawkins
Expert
I tend to agree with you Cam that So You Think shouldn't have been allowed a run. But that's in hindsight, and if you'd suggested as such in October 2009, I would have been brimming with rage - I backed him at 150s in early August! And it was a sizeable bet for me at the time, as well as with a number of doubles! But you are right - the Cox Plate was the first time he was ridden forward so they were essentially able to keep his true talent, so to speak, under wraps.