Week after week, we are getting more impressive fields in Melbourne as the Cups inch closer. Join us from 3.45pm AEST for a preview, live blog and post-race analysis of the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes.
Demand for spots in this field was high with nine Group 1 winners amongst the field of 20 which has to be cut down to 16.
Melbourne Cup favourite Puissance De Lune gets another look at Flemington and is likely to jumps as the favourite. He finished off strongly in the Group 1 Underwood Stakes a fortnight ago.
The further he steps up in distance, the better his chances are.
2000m here is still short of ideal for him but he comes in very well at the weight since he is yet to win a Group 1 and avoids the weight penalties others face here.
Despite finishing seventh in the Underwood Stakes, the pace of the race simply didn’t suit him and the distance of the race was still on the skinny side. He finished strongly and did nothing to suggest he won’t improve here.
Fiorente has been the big early market mover and he too return to the Flemington and gets in well at the weights as a horse yet to win a Group 1.
He was surprisingly dominant in the Group 2 Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes and we already know he will lap up this distance and runs well at Flemington.
Nash Rawiller has not stopped telling us how good this horse it and it is telling that he has opted to stay in Melbourne for the ride despite being offered several winning chances in Sydney across the day’s three Group 1s.
There has been plenty of attention given to Fawkner who opened at $67 on Wednesday.
Lloyd Williams decision to scratch Green Moon and Sea Moon from the race to ensure Fawkner gets a run has indicated that Fawkner is believed to be the stables best Caulfield Cup hope.
His last two starts have been up in Sydney where he took on WFA class but wasn’t quite up to the task. He gets weight relief here but has never raced against a field of this quality.
Royal Descent and Hawkspur bring the Sydney formlines here and both finally get out to longer distances where they proved top strong against their three year old age group last season.
Hawkspur has been given no favours after drawing the car park barrier. When he went around last start in the Group 1 George Main, he was taken to the back and left too much work to do from a long way back.
Chris Waller had indicated he will be ridden the same way here but so too will Puissance De Lune so if he can keep up with the grey, he should be given a nice trail into the race.
Super Cool won the Group 1 Australian Cup here in autumn against older horses under similar conditions as this but as a result of that win, gets a weight penalty here.
He was very flat in the Dato Tan Chin Nam when he missed out on a place but that can be put down to failing to handle Moonee Valley.
Jet Away is one of the most intriguing runners in the field and opened above his rated price. The import has had two runs in Australia for two wins.
He is being set for the Caulfield Cup but due to unexpected events, is starting his campaign much later than anticipated by trainer David Hayes.
Running first up, Jet Away won three of his four attempts and like most of the Europeans, running 2000m first up should be no problem.
Despite there being four or five chances in single figure odds; it shouldn’t surprise anyone if any outsider gets up because the quality of staying horses here is outrageously high.
Alfred Chan’s Tips
1. Fiorente
2. Puissance De Lune
3. Jet Away
4. Royal Descent
Justin Cinque’s Tips
1. Super Cool
2. Fiorente
3. Happy Trails
4. Puissance De Lune
Andrew Hawkins’ Tips
1. Royal Descent
2. Fiorente
3. Sangster
4. Mr O’Ceirin
Cameron Rose’s Tips
1. Puissance De Lune
2. Super Cool
3. Royal Descent
4. Fawkner
Roar writers 2013 Spring Carnival tipping tally (five points if winning horse is tipped for first; three points if tipped for second; two for third and one for fourth):
After week seven
Cameron Rose: 24
Alfred Chan: 24
Justin Cinque: 20
Andrew Hawkins: 20
Peter Swanell
Guest
Yeah but you didn't think he could win the Turnbull either! Obviously it is a big task but with the right run he will not be far away. And it is not always about winning. As owners it is the thrill of running in the Cox Plate and there is 100 grand prize money for running 8th. Bring it on
Alfred Chan
Expert
I believe you now but I don't think Happy Trails can win the Cox Plate.
Peter Swanell
Guest
I told you 2 weeks ago Happy Trails could run a strong 2000 metres. I think you believe me now. And by the way, if you watch the replay, you'll see Super Cool ran a pretty good race
Alfred Chan
Expert
This brings and end to our coverage of the 2013 Turnbull Stakes. It was a fantastic performance from Happy Trails. Looking back on it, his run in the Underwood was excellent and I certainly should have given him a chance here. He'll push on to the Cox Plate. We're now heading back to Sydney for the final Group 1 of the day, the Metropolitan Handicap. http://www.theroar.com.au/2013/10/05/2013-metropolitan-handicap-preview-live-blog-and-tips/
Alfred Chan
Expert
18,256 people gave turned up at Flemington. That's an excellent turn out! Up from 13,000 last year.
Alfred Chan
Expert
Super Cool failed to fire a shot. I'd expect him to drift in Caulfield Cup markets now.
Alfred Chan
Expert
I also like Jet Away's run. He was running first up and finished midfield. He was far from disgraced and he too will be fancied in the Caulfield Cup on the back of that run.
Alfred Chan
Expert
Not too much to make out of the Melbourne Cup bound horses. Dear Demi and Royal Descent will push on to the Caulfield Cup. Their runs were good. Glencadam Gold just faded in the straight. They need to teach him to race off the pace because you can't win a Melbourne Cup from the front.
Alfred Chan
Expert
There is a protest. 7th vs 3rd. If it's upheld, Fiorente will get third.
Alfred Chan
Expert
Fiorente was also massive. Nash Rawiller had him just ahead of Hawkspur at the back. When they entered the straight, Hawkspur went to the inside while Fiorente went to the outside. Fiorente just picked them off and I think he was still winding up when they hit the post. Good run by Fiorente to finish fourth.
Alfred Chan
Expert
I thought the best run of the race was Hawkspur. Michael Walker had him dead last from the wide gate but over the final 400m, he flew home weaving in an out of traffic to finish fifth.
Alfred Chan
Expert
Puissance De Lune was a bit disappointing for me. He ran second but he really should have won that. He wasn't able to push clear. We saw him ridden differently than normal and it didn't quite pay off.
Alfred Chan
Expert
Most of these horses are going to the Melbourne Cup but Happy Trails will head towards the Cox Plate.
Alfred Chan
Expert
Paul Beshara purchased Happy Trails for $11,000. With this win, Happy Trails has now won $1.6million.
Alfred Chan
Expert
With Dwayne Dunn. "He just plugged to the line the other day." "As you saw, a little bit finer in the first half and better today." "He's a horse that's flown under the radar." "He's got to take the next step again." "He's just do genuine. He can put himself in the race or you can take him out of it."
Alfred Chan
Expert
Fantastic ride by Dwayne Dunn. Outstanding. It wasn't attractive, but it was damn good.
Alfred Chan
Expert
At the 200m mark, Happy Trails was 4L off Puissance De Lune. Fawkner was on Happy Trails' outside and looking the much better horse but Happy Trails just went BOOM!
Alfred Chan
Expert
With trainer Paul Beshara. "He's a magnificent horse." "He's always underrated and never runs a bad race." "I always thought with a propper run, he'd go well in last year's Cox Plate." "He's by Good Journey and he's put us on a Good Journey."
Alfred Chan
Expert
Huge runs from Fiorente and Hawkspur who were the last two when they came into the straight. They finished fifth and fourth.
Alfred Chan
Expert
Happy Trails paying $31.