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2013 Caulfield Cup: individual analysis of every horse (part I)

17th October, 2013
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2012 Caulfield Cup runner-up Alcopop heads to Hong Kong (Image: AAP)
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17th October, 2013
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The first of the spring majors has arrived and the Caulfield Cup never fails to disappoint. In preparation for tomorrow’s $2.5million race, here is part one of your guide to each individual runner in the field.

1. Manighar
Now getting on in years, he isn’t the same horse he was two years ago. He tailed out of the race in the Turnbull Stakes which was a bit disappointing after running well in the Underwood Stakes behind Atlantic Jewel.

Top weights have a horrible overall record in this race despite Dunaden carrying top weight to victory last year. Manighar should have no problem covering the distance but there are just too many others that are well weighted in this field. He’ll need wet ground to even be considered a rough place chance.

2. Dandino
The globetrotting import will be having his first Australian run as he sets his path towards the Melbourne Cup. His last two starts have been fantastic, running second in the Group 2 Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot before jettisoning to the U.S to win their St Leger.

It is the same path which his stablemate Jakkalberry took last year. Jakkalberry put in a shocking run in the Caulfield Cup before running third in the Melbourne Cup.

By Dansili, this distance is ideal but he’s drawn a horror barrier and is likely to go to the back early. He’s got Craig Williams on board who won from the back last year and is on a big hope again here.

3. Ethiopia
Flying a flag for local breeders, Ethiopia is just having his third start this preparation as he progresses towards the Melbourne Cup. He drops back to handicap conditions after struggling in the Underwood Stakes and finding the Makybe Diva Stakes distance too short.

He’s now out to a suitable trip but doesn’t really hit his straps until the fourth or fifth run of his campaign.

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If you’re going extremely wide, he can be considered for exotics but he’s just looking for a clean run here with the Melbourne Cup his sole focus.

4. Waldpark
Cox Plate plans were shelved after he failed to run up to the potential he showed in Germany. From what we’ve seen from his three runs in Australia, he still races a bit immaturely after pulling in the Benalla Cup where he had to carry 62kg and finished eight lengths shy of the winner.

The quality of that race was not great but as we’ve seen with a few of the Germans that Anthony Freedman brings over, they need a season to find their footing under Freedman’s regime.

He is by Dubawi who is an absolute superstar sire in Europe but he has not shown enough over the past month to be taken seriously.

5. Glencadam Gold
He’ll have the pleasure of not running as the favourite this year and has drawn a much better gate than twelve months ago. Glencadam Gold looks the likely leader and should have no problem getting there.

Two starts back, he looked in top condition when he ran second in the Group 3 Hill Stakes but regressed poorly when he came down to Melbourne for the Turnbull Stakes.

Depending on how messy this race becomes when they come into the turn, he could get a clean kick and require chasing down but he has no right to win this.

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6. Mr Moet
It’s a bit surprising that they’ve pressed on with his Cups campaign because he looked a tad flat in the JRA Cup which was a race he really needed to win to prove his quality among spring contenders

He may be West Australia’s best horse but since he’s come to Melbourne this season, he hasn’t been suited to the damp ground and probably should have gone back to Perth in preparation for a summer campaign.

7. Fawkner
Lloyd Williams says Fawkner is his best chance of winning the Caulfield Cup and he is spot on. He drops back to handicap conditions after a few unsuccessful runs at weight-for-age class and is very well suited here.

Against genuine A-graders, he ran a good third in the Turnbull Stakes and doesn’t run a bad race. He’s come in well at the weights but this will be his first run over the 2400m distance.

By Reset, this will be right on his limit but being trained by Robert Hickmott should nullify the distance concerns.

If rain comes, the money will flow like crazy for Fawkner who is the best wet-tracker in the field.

8. Jet Away
The European import put in a fantastic first-up run in the Turnbull Stakes after a several setbacks threatened to derail his entire preparation.

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This lightly raced seven year old has been targeting this race since the moment he was purchased by Australian interests and should have no problem over the distance. He gets in with a reasonable weights and should be thereabouts at the end.

9. Kelinni
Comes down to Melbourne after a few lacklustre performances in Sydney. His best form in Australia has been down here where he won the Lexus Stakes before running fourth in last year’s Melbourne Cup.

He ran dead last in the Group 3 Craven Plate but return to handicap conditions after labouring on the Group 1 weight-for-age scene.

He hasn’t shown enough to be considered a winning chance and even a place seems a stretch. If he runs the same race he ran in the Craven Plate, this could be his final race, on the flat at least.

10. Moriarty
He entered the Metropolitan with big expectations after winning the Hill Stakes under weight-for-age-conditions but took too long to run himself into the race.

It was still a good run and he probably did himself a favour by not winning because it would have led to a weight penalty here.

He is already a winner over this distance after winning the Brisbane Cup in winter and he did so carrying top weight however that was against much weaker competition than he faces here.

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As a less credentialed stayer than others in this field, he is weight well enough to win this but barrier 18 could be a concern.

He won’t have the acceleration be swoop from the rear of the field so he’ll need to use some petrol early to settle midfield but even then, he’ll be racing wide the entire trip. Rough chance.

Including emergencies, there are 12 more runners in the mix for tomorrow’s race.

On race day, The Roar will publish analysis of the final 12 runners, plus my tips for who will take out the 2013 Caulfield Cup.

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