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The $2.5m 2013 Caulfield Cup has arrived and as we prepare for the first of three spring majors, we’re here to find the winner. Join us from 4.00pm AEDT for a preview, live blog and post race analysis of the Caulfield Cup which is scheduled to run at 5.45pm AEDT.
This year’s edition is very unique because the main Melbourne Cup hopefuls have bypassed the Caulfield Cup in favour of the Cox Plate.
With the absence of Puissance De Lune, Fiorente and It’s A Dundeel, the Caulfield Cup has been blown wide open with many chance.
After analysing each of the runners yesterday, let’s try figure out how this race will play out and hopefully find the winner.
The favourite for the past two weeks has been Hawkspur who was unlucky in the Turnbull Stakes, yet still ran an excellent race.
He’s drawn a shocking gate and will have to either push forward early or tail out to the back.
Based on what we’ve seen from him this season, tailing out the back makes more sense because he has shown he still has a devastating turn of foot and more importantly, she showed in the Turnbull that he can sustain it for 400m.
Gai Waterhouse holds a strong hand here with two or her chances expected to press forward and dictate the race.
Glencadam Gold runs his best races from the front and he looks likely to be joined by stablemate Julienas.
Both run strong sectionals and will be able to turn this race into a genuine staying affair rather than some of the farcically run staying races we have been seeing lately.
Throwing a spanner into the pace of this race is Dear Demi who has pushed forward in her past two runs but raced at the back all of last season.
From the widest gate, it would make more sense for her to go back but if she pushes up with the Waterhouse horses, this will be one of the fastest run Caulfield Cups we’ll see.
So what happens if the Waterhouse horses are not taken forward? If that happens, it will be a race to see which jockey pulls the trigger first to take up the lead.
In that case, Mr O’Cierin or Manighar will go forward and it will become a sprint to the finish and suit the swoopers.
There will be two brigades of swoopers based on how the barriers have been drawn. The backmarkers will be Hawkspur, Ethiopia and possibly Dandino and Dear Demi.
Fawkner, Jet Away, Silent Achiever and Moriarty will have their options in running and all are expected to settle midfield.
All also have the turn of foot to swoop but Fawkner and Jet Away will not want to get shuffled too far back because they will not be able to sustain testing runs like other more proven stayers in this field.
Silent Achiever has had no luck at all in her campaign so far and she has been the big mover in early markets.
She should get a beautiful trail into the race behind Fawkner and Jet Away depending on when Glen Boss makes his move.
From barrier 5, she is certain to have both Dandino (barrier 19) and Hawkspur (barrier 16) on his outside when the field starts to bunch.
Both horses have the capability to match it with Silent Achiever who cannot afford to get baulked for a run.
Fortunately for her, he has the right man on board to hopefully avoid the situation.
Royal Descent has been the other horse the punters have been coming big for over the past 24 hours. She has drawn barrier 3 which threatens to ruin her race because she does not like being cramped for room.
If this race is run even remotely too slow, it will be incredibly difficult for Nash Rawiller to draw her off the fence and into the race.
She runs best on wide courses where has free running room so she’ll need to find a way off the fence.
Ideally she’ll have her chance if the field strings out but if she runs into traffic, she’ll pull and be unable to match it with the backmakers.
Dandino is the wildcard here. He is the only horse not to run in Australia and trainer Marco Botti brought Jakkalberry out here last year and ran a shocker in the Caulfield Cup before a flashy third in the Melbourne Cup.
The wide gate hurts his chances but is a must in all exotics.
Detailed prediction: Tuscan Fire will be the surprise leader from his inside gate and be joined by Mr O’Cierin with Glencadam Gold right behind them.
There will be no cheap sectionals today and the field will be drawn out over 15 length. Hawkspur, Moriarty and Dear Demi will all be out the back.
Jet Away, Mr Moet and Fawkner will settle forward of midfield with Royal Descent, Silent Achiever and Dandino in behind them.
The race will be run quickly and Mr Moet will be the first to make a move 800m out because he takes awhile to get going. Glencadam Gold will take the lead and draw clear by a few lengths and be a bunny to chase down.
Hawkspur will also commence his run at that point but be giving up about 12 lengths to the leader. He will have Dear Demi on his outside who will let him go and tack on to his tail.
Dandino will need to start the motor there. If he does, he goes with Hawkspur all the way. If he doesn’t his race is over because they’re too far back.
With the field swinging into the straight, Glencadam Gold will retain the lead and Fawkner will emerge from the pack and loom as a big hope, drawing level at the 300m mark.
Hawkspur and Dear Demi will be the widest runners in the field and Nash Rawiller will cut the corner on Royal Descent to emerge on the fence.
Silent Achiever and Jet Away will come into the race and kick away from the field and keep Hawkspur wide on the track.
With everyone converging towards the centre, Royal Descent will be given a clean run on the rails to sneak past Fawkner.
Hawkspur, Silent Achiever, Dear Demi and Jet Away will all look winning chances. Hawkspur and Dear Femi will be the first to tire having commenced long runs which will see Silent Achiever kick through.
Meanwhile, Royal Descent will continue her run on the rail clear of any pressure.
The Caulfield Cup will be run at 5.45pm AEDT.
Alfred Chan’s best roughie: Moriarty
Alfred Chan’s tips
1. Royal Descent
2. Silent Achiever
3. Dear Demi
4. Hawkspur
Justin CInque’s tips
1. Hawkspur
2. Silent Achiever
3. Jet Away
4. Dandino
Andrew Hawkins’ tips
1. Silent Achiever
2. Jet Away
3. Mr Moet
4. Hawkspur
Cameron Rose’s tips
1. Hawkspur
2. Dandino
3. Jet Away
4. Fawkner
Roar writers 2013 Spring Carnival tipping tally (five points if winning horse is tipped for first; three points if tipped for second; two for third and one for fourth):
After Wednesday’s Thousand Guineas meeting
Justin Cinque: 50
Alfred Chan: 48
Cameron Rose: 46
Andrew Hawkins: 39
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