Mark Kavanagh’s Cox Plate fears for Atlantic Jewel are becoming reality, with the Melbourne weather forecast predicating wet conditions for Saturday’s Cox Plate where others would be better suited.
Last month, I detailed a few things which might go wrong for Atlantic Jewel in the Cox Plate but completely ignored the track condition because anyone that thinks they can predict Melbourne’s weather hasn’t lived here long enough.
On Sunday, Kavanagh declared that he would not run Atlantic Jewel in the Cox Plate if he felt the ground was too wet or chopped up.
According to the Bureau of Meteorology, ‘rain at times’ is predicted on Tuesday, ‘rain at times, easing’ is expected on Wednesday, a
‘shower or two’ is predicted on Thursday and ‘possible showers’ are expected on Friday.
In her 11 career starts, Atlantic Jewel has run on wet ground just once and it led to her only defeat in the Group 1 Underwood Stakes behind It’s A Dundeel.
The track was rated ‘Slow 6’ on that occasion and the champion mare hardly produced a convincing effort to suggest she can handle the wet ground.
Contrastingly, It’s A Dundeel lapped up the ground and was much stronger in the finish and is a proven wet tracker.
Unfortunately for Atlantic Jewel, the Cox Plate field is littered with runners with great wet track records and bred by mudders who are all fancied in the market.
Look no further than the Murray Baker yard where staff will be heavily entrenched in the act of rain dancing for the remainder of the week.
It’s A Dundeel has already claimed Atlantic Jewel once on wet ground and Baker will be very confident his star colt by High Chaparral can do it again.
It’s A Dundeel has raced twice on wet tracks for his win in the Underwood Stakes and fourth place in the Group 2 Hobartville Stakes.
In the Hobartville, he ran behind Pierro and Rebel Dane but the 1400m distance was too short for him yet he was still the fastest finishing horse.
His biggest upside is his sire High Chaparral whose biggest successes in Australia have been So You Think and Descarado.
So You Think’s two runs on wet ground delivered a win in the Memsie Stakes which was a Group 2 at the time and third in the Melbourne Cup.
From seven starts on wet ground, Descarado had three wins and three second placings. One of those wins was the 2010 Caulfield Cup which was run on a ‘Heavy 9’ track.
It’s A Dundeel occupies the second line of Cox Plate betting and next on the table is Melbourne Cup runner-up Fiorente.
Imported from England, Fiorente is by German sire Monsun who has limited progeny in Australia at the highest level. In Europe however, Monsun is a very successful sire where the racetracks tend to be softer than Australia.
There is one certainty in spring and it is that guys like Dermot Weld and Aiden O’Brien will demand the tracks be watered more to better suit European horses if they come.
Fiorente has had one run on wet ground and it was in the Group 2 Prince Of Wales Stakes where he beat Joshua Tree and Red Cadeaux.
Also fancied in the Cox Plate is Puissance De Lune who has met a wet track five times for two wins and a second. We’ve heard from trainer Darren Weir about Puissance De Lune’s concerns on firm ground so he too is another that will appreciate some rain.
A Cox Plate isn’t quite complete without three-year-olds and we have one this year with Caulfield Guineas winner Long John representing his age group in Australia’s weight-for-age championship.
Carrying a miniscule 49.5kg, Long John has to be given a big chance and if rain comes, connections shouldn’t be concerned because he is by another proven sire of wet trackers, Street Cry.
Street Cry’s two biggest successes in Australia have been Shocking and Whobegotyou and they have had above-average success on wet ground.
Shocking ran a fast-finishing fourth in behind Descarado in the 2010 Caulfield Cup on ‘Heavy 9’ ground and also won at weight-for-age in the Makybe Diva Stakes.
Whobegotyou had five runs on wet tracks for a win and two seconds with the win coming in the Group 2 Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes at weight-for-age level.
It’s not all doom and gloom for Atlantic Jewel though. She may never have won on a wet track but her lightly-raced dam, Regard, had some success on wet ground. She only had three career starts in low grades but had a perfect one from one in the wet.
Fastnet Rock’s biggest money earner so far has been Mosheen, who ran twice on wet ground for wins in the Group 1 Australian Guineas and Group 1 Randwick Guineas.
The Cox Plate will be the final race of the two day Moonee Valley carnival and will be the 18th race run at the Valley in 24 hours so the track will be chopped up by the time the Cox Plate is run.
With just one run on the wet track, we cannot conclusively say Atlantic Jewel will not handle it but we can say others are more proven.
If the rain in Melbourne persists over the coming days, Atlantic Jewel will drift in betting and It’s A Dundeel’s chances will look better and better.
But this is Melbourne and when we have four seasons in a day; locals have learnt not to trust the weather reports.
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