Who will win the 2013 Cox Plate? It’s the question everyone will be asking tomorrow afternoon. Let’s breakdown each horse in detail to try and find a winner for Australasia’s championship race.

1. Green Moon
Seeing Green Moon line up here will cause some people to pull their hair out because he put in an absolutely awful run in this race 12 months ago. Plenty of people jumped off him after that and ten days later, he won the Melbourne Cup at juicy odds.

Things are different this time around though because he will be entering the Melbourne Cup with a bigger weight and his chances are slimmer.

It means there are three million reasons for Lloyd Williams to try and actually win this race with Green Moon rather than use it as a Melbourne Cup warm up.

His runs in the Memsie Stakes and Underwood Stakes were reasonable for a stayer looking for further distance.

It’s easy to assume the Melbourne Cup is his finale but from a financial perspective, there is much more to be gained by Lloyd Williams from winning the Cox Plate with Green Moon.

Don’t be surprised if Williams has given instructions to ride Green Moon out here because as a stallion prospect, a Cox Plate is incomparably worth much more than another Melbourne Cup.

2. Happy Trails
No one saw him winning the Turnbull Stakes and it doesn’t seem like anyone sees him winning this because he will start at longer odds than he did three weeks ago.

His run in the Turnbull came from nowhere because Dwayne Dunn found a gap where there was no gap.

Probability would suggest he will not get so lucky again here but he’s had an interesting formline where he had raced every horse in this field before.

He ran a fast-finishing fourth in the Underwood Stakes behind It’s A Dundeel and he too was finished better than Atlantic Jewel.

It gave him the perfect springboard into the Turnbull Stakes.

He came to the Cox Plate last season and distance was his biggest problem. A year on though, it seems that this trainer Paul Beshara has trained some stamina into his superstar six-year-old gelding.

Last season he won the Emirates Stakes, a race where Fawkner finished second. A year on, Fawkner has won a Caulfield Cup so the form looks quite strong.

Happy Trails was purchased for just $13,000 and has now won over $1.5million so he is already a fairytale horse regardless of how he goes here.

3. Fiorente
Blake Shinn picks up the ride after Nash Rawiller lost it to Damien Oliver, who then got suspended. The import that ran second in last year’s Melbourne Cup has been in scintillating form of late.

He won the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes here at Moonee Valley under weight-for-age conditions with an encouraging last to first performance. The best thing about that win was it showed how quick he can go when asked.

Rawiller tried the same tactic in the Turnbull Stakes and was the fastest horse over the final 400m but ran a luckless fourth. In the past 12 months, this horse has shown there is nothing he can’t do.

He was wet weather form out of Europe and ticks all the boxes but has surprisingly drifted in betting since drawing barrier 15, the widest on the track.

It means he’ll have to be taken to the back again which is a big concern. He did it successfully in the Dato Tan Chin Nam but that was against lesser opposition. He also had his regular rider and country’s strongest on him that day.

Shinn is a fine rider but punters would be much more confident with Nash if Fiorente has to come from the back.

4. Foreteller
Foreteller was a surprise acceptor for the race and Chris Waller waited until five minutes before acceptances closed to enter Foreteller.

The Mackinnon Stakes had been Foreteller’s target all along but exceptional form over the past month has warranted a crack here.

He proved he was more than lucky in autumn when he won the Ranvet Stakes under similar conditions as the Cox Plate when he won the Makybe Diva Stakes, pipping Puissance De Lune.

The Dansili gelding then went to the Underwood where the tempo didn’t suit before lining up in the Caulfield Stakes.

He ran an admirable second, ahead of Super Cool and it was enough to confirm that him as a genuine weight-for-age middle distance galloper.

He’s one that takes awhile to get motoring so the Valley track is not ideal but he could be a rough place chance.

5. Side Glance
It’s always quite difficult to line-up international form against local form and Side Glance does not make it any easier with his obscure campaign.

Andrew Balding has taken him from Dubai to England and then to America for the Arlington Million (2000m, WFA) where he ran third.

It was a good run without showing anything special. Side Glance is now an eight-year-old. He met Red Cadeaux in the Dubai World Cup but finished five lengths shy of him.

In the past two years he has run with some global racing superstars, but has never threatened any of them.

He finished 11 lengths behind Frankel in the Queen Anne Stakes and seven lengths behind Excelebration in the Champions Mile. He would have been a chance in this two years ago but his form doesn’t compare too well with others in this field.

His only chance of winning will be to set a blistering pace early and hope others cannot adapt to the European style of racing.

6. Seville
The second of Lloyd Williams’ horses in this field, Seville fits the traditional profile of a Williams horse running in the Cox Plate.

The bookmakers don’t give him much of a chance and probably rightly so. He went to Sydney for a hit-and-run crack at the Metropolitan Handicap and came away the victor. It was a strong run but he didn’t really get motoring until late.

By Galileo, he looks a genuine stayer looking for the two miles on offer in the Melbourne Cup.

He’s probably the least suited horse in the field to be running at Moonee Valley because he needs the wide open space of a big track to kick into gear.

It would be very surprising to see him fill any of the places and will just be looking for a clean run to maintain his fitness as he heads towards Flemington.

7. Rekindled Interest
Two years ago he ran unlucky third in this race before falling drastically out of form. During the week I spoke with someone close to the Conlan yard who allayed my concerns about Rekindled Interest’s overall racing form.

Last year, he simply should not have run. His temperature was not right and he developed boils on his back which took considerable time to recover from. He is however, now healthy and not far from rekindling his form.

He opened his campaign here at the Valley for a phenomenal second behind Le Bonsir who went on to run third in the Group 1 Moir Stakes. He then went up to Sydney for the Epsom Handicap and found the ground too firm.

This horse is a completely different specimen here at Moonee Valley compared to anywhere else in the country. As a track specialist and former placegetter in this race, has to be considered a rough chance.

8. Puissance De Lune
The grey hasn’t quite had the campaign that most expected him to have. He may no longer be the Melbourne Cup favourite but he has not disgraced himself in any of his runs this season.

He was narrowly beaten in the Makybe Diva Stakes by Foreteller who is a legitimate weight-for-age horse and then went to the Underwood where race was run at a scolding tempo to Puissance De Lune’s displeasure.

He ran second int he Turnbull but he steps up in class he because he was given a weight allowance for having never won a Group 1 race.

The distance is no problem for him but he has never run at the Valley before and Cox Plates do not get won from the back of the field.

With a quick tempo expected, he’ll need to make his move much earlier than normal to be in this and that is much harder than it sounds at the Valley, a track better suited to front

9. Masked Marvel
The third of Lloyd Williams’ horses comes in off a luckless second in the Group 3 Craven Plate in Sydney.

In that race he ran behind Honorius who was given one of the rides of the year by James McDonald to win a race Masked Marvel had already walked out the door with before arriving.

The Honorius form is quite bad after he came down to Melbourne in an easier race on Saturday and ran fourth.

Masked Marvel is a weight-for-age horse with excellent breeding. If Williams were to target this race with him, he would be right in the mix for this.

The stable have figured him out and he’s very fit and responded nicely on Australian turf.

The biggest query is how much do they want to win the Cox Plate with him? Earlier in the month, Williams was probed about his best chance in the Melbourne Cup and he named Masked Marvel.

He’s over the odds here but the record of Macedon Lodge horses on track for the Melbourne Cup is terrible in the Cox Plate. He’s a place chance at best.

10. Mull Of Killough
The second of the imports comes to Australia via Singapore, England and America. He too ran in the Arlington Million but finished three lengths behind Side Glance.

His form is best relatable to via the SIA Cup where another former-Australian horse Mawingo race also. On that occasion, Mawingo finished fourth and Mull Of Killough finished fifth.

Off that, it’s hard to give Mull Of Killough any chance here because there is no chance Mawingo would have made this Cox Plate field.

Trainer Jane Chapple-Hyam has vehemently defended Mull Of Killough throughout the week and taken aim at bookmakers for opening him at such long odds.

It’s hard to make a case for him because even his European form is very average.

11. It’s A Dundeel
As the only horse that has ever beaten Atlantic Jewel, it’s no surprise that the two share the top line of betting.

When It’s A Dundeel won the Underwood Stakes, the final margin flattered Atlantic Jewel because she was flat to the line while It’s A Dundeel finished we on top.

They face off over an extra 240m and based on breeding alone, It’s A Dundeel should be better suited over the trip.

He faced a minor setback when he developed a foot abscess and was unable to work for a week which saw him scratched from the Caulfield Stakes.

As a result, this will be just the High Chaparral colts third run of his campaign while others in the field are fitter,

For most it would be a concern but It’s A Dundeel is two from two running third-up and is the most versatile horse in this field across track condition and racing pattern.

It will be a shock if he is not one of the first three across the line.

12. Super Cool
Things have not gone to plan this season for Super Cool. After winning the Australian Cup as a three-year-old, he was projected to become an outright superstar of Australian racing.

At first he was aimed at this year’s Cox Plate but Kavanagh did not want him to clash with Atlantic Jewel.

At that point he was set on a path for the Caulfield Cup but was undone in the Turnbull Stakes where he didn’t show enough acceleration to confirm he could run a strong mile and half.

Throughout this preparation, the Fastnet Rock gelding has struck firm ground three times and not liked any of it.

On good ground, he has not shown the turn of foot we know he is capable of but gets a nice reprieve here with the sting certain to be taken out of the track.

He then went to the Caulfield Stakes and finished third, a length behind Foreteller.

He’s drawn an awkward barrier to jump from 14 which will most likely take him to the back early.

Still, he goes quite well here at the Valley where he beat It’s A Dundeel in last year’s Moonee Valley Vase and ran an unlucky fourth behind Fiorente in the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes.

Winning this is not beyond him but he’ll need a fair bit of luck if he gets shuffled to the rear of the field and is one to consider in exotics.

13. Atlantic Jewel – SCRATCHED

14. Long John
Fantastic decision to bring Long John to the Cox Plate after taking out the Caulfield Guineas. Three-year-olds bring so much mystery and intrigue to a race which is much better for having them.

Carrying just 49.5kg, the Street Cry gelding will have no idea who or what he is. Often the biggest problem for three-year-olds in the race is running out a strong 2040m.

That should be no problem for the gelding that sits just off the pace and has plenty of stamina in his breeding.

The wet conditions should be no problem but the worst run of his career (which wasn’t even that bad!) was here at the Valley.

He’s matured a lot since that run and with nothing on his back, is a big chance of stealing this.

15. Shamus Award
It seems almost absurd that a maiden could win the Cox Plate but once Atlantic Jewel was scratched, it became possible with Shamus Award pushing into the final field.

Despite being a maiden, he probably does deserve his spot in the final field due to Danny O’Brien having the confidence to be among final acceptors.

Any three-year-old must be given a chance in this race because like Long John, he will carry just 49.5kg.

His form has been very good despite not winning. He boxed on well in the Stutt Stakes where he was piped on the line by Devine Calling.

That form help up better than any race in the Caulfield Guineas where Devine Calling ran second and Shamus Award got out late to run third, two lengths behind Long John.

His final 400m in the Caulfield Guineas was strong enough to show he can match it with others in this field but there have to be queries about him over the distance.

By Snitzel and out of Sunset Express who never won beyond 1350m, everything about his breeding suggests 1600m is his limit.

Alfred Chan’s Tips
1. It’s A Dundeel
2. Long John
3. Green Moon
4. Fiorente