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The weight-for-age championship is upon us and the 2013 Cox Plate has been thrown wide open after the scratching of Atlantic Jewel. Join us from 4.00pm AEDT for a detailed preview, live blog and post-race analysis.
Yesterday we detailed an individual analysis of each horse in the field.
The betting markets have produced plenty of intrigue throughout the week with some unexpected moves.
The barrier draw has been like none other with two of the early favourites, It’s A Dundeel and Fiorente, drawing wide gates.
When Atlantic Jewel was scratched, it should have been a mere formality for It’s A Dundeel be installed as the firm favourite. This was not the case, however.
Two concerns have kept punters away from It’s A Dundeel despite being the only horse that has ever beaten Atlantic Jewel. The first of those is his lack of fitness.
He was scratched from the Caulfield Stakes die to a foot abscess and has been restricted in training ever since.
The second is his wide barrier. James McDonald cannot allow It’s A Dundeel to go too far back from barrier 13 because last time he at the here and ridden cold, he was beaten by Super Cool.
Big money has been coming for Puissance De Lune who was installed as favourite after Atlantic Jewel’s scratching.
On Thursday, trainer Darren Weir admitted that the Cox Plate was indeed the grey’s target and the Melbourne Cup would be an afterthought.
With saddlecloth eight and drawing barrier eight, he will be heavily supported in Asian markets where the number eight is deemed lucky.
Fiorente’s chances were hit hard when he drew the widest gate. He’ll need to make his move very early in the race and with Blake Shinn on him for the first time, the punters are not confident.
During the week, Gai Waterhouse confirmed that Fiorente would be better suited in the Melbourne Cup than here today.
The money for Long John has flowed all week. He was $21 immediately after his Caulfield Guineas win and then $15 a few days later when Peter Snowden confirmed Long John would come to the Cox Plate.
He then firmed into $11 when Atlantic Jewel was scratched and has now come in further to $8. The markets are loving the three-year-old who will run out this distance and he can expect to firm even further.
Snowden has confirmed that this will be Long John’s final run of the campaign so expect Kerrin McEvoy to ride him out all the way to the line.
Shamus Award too will enjoy the mammoth weight allowance given to three year olds and has done nothing wrong this preparation. He may still be a maiden but his runs have been excellent and he finished third behind Long John last start.
His biggest problem is he is not bred to run the trip here.
Happy Trails has a habit of winning when no one expect him too. He stole the Turnbull Stakes ahead of Puissance De Lune while carrying more weight and they meet at level weights here.
On that fact alone, if you give Puissance De Lune a chance here, you have to give Happy Trails one too.
Overall, there is too much going for It’s A Dundeel if he has fully recovered from his foot abscess. He has the best form in the race and he is the most versatile runner in the field.
View a runner by runner analysis of the entire 2013 Cox Plate field here
The Cox Plate will be run as the final race on the Moonee Valley card at 5.40pm AEST.
Alfred Chan’s tips
1. It’s A Dundeel
2. Long John
3. Green Moon
4. Fiorente
Justin Cinque’s tips
1. Long John
2. Shamus Award
3. Fiorente
4. It’s A Dundeel
Andrew Hawkins’ tips
1. It’s A Dundeel
2. Green Moon
3. Shamus Award
4. Foreteller
Cameron Rose’s tips
1. Fiorente
2. Puissance De Lune
3. It’s A Dundeel
4. Happy Trails
Roar writers 2013 Spring Carnival tipping tally (five points if winning horse is tipped for first; three points if tipped for second; two for third and one for fourth):
After the Manikato Stakes last night
Cameron Rose: 55
Justin Cinque: 52
Alfred Chan: 50
Andrew Hawkins: 40
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