As the 2013/14 NBA season tips off, the only question that matters is: can anyone can beat the Miami Heat, or will they continue to put the squeeze on every team in the NBA?
The Heat, led by superstar LeBron James, have made three consecutive NBA Finals, and won the last two NBA championships.
Needless to say, they remain the yardstick by which every other franchise in the league is measured.
Though on the surface it appears as though the Heat have been dominant – and at times they have – Miami certainly didn’t waltz their way to the title last season, with both the Indiana Pacers and the San Antonio Spurs pushing them all the way to seven games in the Eastern Conference Finals and the NBA Finals, respectively.
In fact, the Spurs did everything but beat the Heat, blowing a championship-deciding game six, despite being up five points in the last 20 seconds of the game.
Just how close were the Spurs to winning the title? Security had already surrounded courtside, and the post-match podium was ready to be wheeled onto the centre circle.
So by no means are Miami certainties to win the title, though they will deservingly start the season as favourites.
Much of the Heat’s success can be accredited to LeBron. He’s the best player on the planet, and arguably only just hitting his prime.
Surround him with quality players, as Miami have done, and it’s a recipe for success.
The off-season saw the Heat sign injury-prone Greg Oden and the troubled Michael Beasley. Both additions are low risk/high reward, and if they come off towards the latter, the Heat will be near unstoppable.
Yet, even if both players flame out, a nucleus of LeBron James, (a healthy) Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, Mario Chambers, Chris Anderson, Ray Allen, Shane Battier, Udonis Haslem, etc., should be expected to win the title.
So can anyone beat the Heat?
Starting with the Eastern Conference, the obvious candidate is the aforementioned Pacers, one of the two teams that pushed Miami to seven games in the playoffs last year.
Indiana had a wonderful off-season, upgrading their bench significantly, plus they’ll get All-Star Danny Granger back from injury.
If Paul George can continue his ascendancy towards stardom, they’ll give Miami all they can handle, and they probably have the best chance of any team in the league of beating the Heat.
Elsewhere in the Eastern Conference, the Heat are simply better than Chicago, even if Derrick Rose returns 100% healthy.
The Bulls will once again compete hard and play exceptional defense, but they’re one high quality player short of being a true contender.
The Brooklyn Nets will be intriguing, but I fear the age of their core players may be an issue come playoff time.
If Jason Kidd can mange the team’s minutes, they could be dangerous, but after age caught up with the Knicks and Lakers last year, I’m extremely wary of veteran teams at the end of a long season.
Meanwhile, the New York Knicks and their fans will remain exactly what they were last season: lippy pretenders who talk a mean game, but provide little real threat to Miami.
I can’t realistically see anyone else from the East seriously challenging Miami.
Out west, there are a number of high calibre teams with championship ambitions.
You can never count out the Spurs, even though everyone usually does. San Antonio are the perennial horror movie villain, who simply won’t die.
They’ll once again be near the top of the Western Conference, but unless Kawhi Leonard can make the leap to All Star level, the Spurs won’t have improved enough to topple Miami, who have the potential to be better than last season.
The Oklahoma City Thunder, for the second consecutive season after making the NBA Finals, have actually regressed from a roster talent point-of-view.
Salary cap constraints aside, losing James Harden/Kevin Martin for essentially nothing can never be described as a positive.
Combined with Russell Westbrook’s injury and Scotty Brooks’ questionable coaching, and it’s a little difficult to see the Thunder winning the title – despite Kevin Durant’s brilliance – but certainly not impossible.
The Los Angeles Clippers are built for regular season fun, but playoff pain. They’ll score a bunch of points, be wildly entertaining, and be much improved on the sidelines with Doc Rivers now coaching the team.
However, he can’t improve the frontcourt’s free throw shooting, low post play or its lack of depth, which all stand out as major issues for the Clips.
The Memphis Grizzlies still lack outside shooting and dynamism on offense. Come playoff time, opponents will simply double team their post players, Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph, and dare the Grizzlers to beat them from outside.
They couldn’t last year and unless Mike Miller can stay healthy, it’s hard to see that changing.
The Golden State Warriors will be fun to watch, but are not a realistic championship contender. There are simply too many questions about their defence, their reliance on perimetre shooting, and their health.
I could easily see them getting hot and once again doing some damage in the playoffs, but hot enough to win four series in a row? That’s some hot streak, even for someone of Steph Curry’s shooting prowess.
The Houston Rockets may actually have the best chance to challenge the Heat as they have the right weapons to hurt Miami.
However, the issue is that they’d have to actually make the Finals in the first place, and I’m not sure they’re ready to advance past two or three of the above teams just yet.
Everyone else in the Western Conference would just be happy making the playoffs.
All in all, Miami certainly aren’t unbeatable, and there are a number of talented teams ready to take up the challenge of knocking them off.
Yet when push comes to shove – as it does in the playoffs – I’d still prefer to have my money on LeBron and the Heat than anyone else.
Red Kev
Guest
I looked up Oscar Robertson's record the other day - guy's a freak, 20 assists off averaging a triple double in his rookie season.
Ryan O'Connell
Expert
Ian, I tweeted something similar straight after the game: "Philly, so bad, they don't even know how to tank properly."
IanW
Guest
It's regular season, but we need to put the 76ers into this conversation. They clearly dont know the finer details of playing for draft picks, and rather - after giving up 80 points in a half of basketball - insisted on beating Miami. Rookie point guard of the future Michael Carter-Williams showed the future is now by being an incredible one steal and three blocks off a quadruple-double, delivering an unbelievable 22 points, 12 assists, nine steals and seven rebounds. There is one bloke who has had a triple-double in his first game, and his name was Oscar Robinson. The Philadelphia 76ers. Too incompetant to tank right.
Ryan O'Connell
Expert
And . . . It's been less than a half of basketball, but still, it seems Griffin has been working very hard in the off-season on his low post stuff. Already had a number of impressive stuff on the block.
Ryan O'Connell
Expert
As I said, if you don't have good low post players, you can make do in the current NBA. And a lot of teams do. Your Thunder for one. But if you don't have those types of players, you generally need you bigs to be efficient from other areas on the court, something Jordan isn't, and Griffin is inconsistent at. The teams that all finished in the top 4 last season did have some form of low post presence. I think that's pretty good evidence that low post play can be a key to success, and I'm stunned that someone of your basketball nous could possibly disagree with that?
Ryan O'Connell
Expert
I'm not changing the definition of low post play at all. If you catch the ball in the low post, then face up to the basket and make your move, that's still low post play. It may not be traditional back-to-the-basket post play, but low post play has never been just back-to-the basket moves, even though that's what a lot of people think. When did I ever say low post play is an offensive possession by a player 6'9" or taller? When did I say any offense by a tall guy is deemed to be low post play?? You're right, Jordan is the main issue for the Clips, but when you play him with Griffin, your offense is limited as they both shoot less than 35% outside the key. Personally, I do think the Clippers have some offensive issues in the front court, especially when the playoffs start. It's also worth pointing out that when I first mentioned 'low post play', I meant on both ends of the floor, and the Clips need to improve their defense as well.
mushi
Guest
As for pointing to the top four teams as some sort of evidence this is pretty poor analysis the pacers and Memphis weren’t good offensive teams in the regular season or playoffs. It is a race to the bottom if we start emulating their offensive strategy. Then you’ve got the spurs who didn’t run that much in the way of post ups as Pop gets it that post ups are to be used to keep people honest not as the staple. He does run some high post initiated action that uses Duncans passing and ball handling but Griffin can run this well Then you’ve got bron which is a mismatch – the best kind of post up because you typically get a cleaner look at the entry pass as you are posting up a passing lane defender not a rim protector
mushi
Guest
First is the information we use has changed, second the types of defences and third the players The people in power used to just look fg% now they look at points per possession. Post ups have high turnover rates because you are passing to someone the defense knows you are passing to and they have more intricate ball handling and footwork required of a big man. The other issue is time and commitment to developing them as a play means that if it doesn’t work you typically are left with a low value contested shot (one that before was blamed on taking a jump shot not on attempting the post play which is what really led to the poor shot) The second is that defences have changed from straight up man to man. Before you could easily account for defenders and try the entry pass with less risk – now the new NBA zone defence rules have led to defences that make it very hard to just dump the ball into a quality low post position. Add a third factor to that in the wingspan of players is now more values so you’ve got longer faster guys that effectively make the court smaller meaning less passing lanes to static players.
mushi
Guest
Well sure if you change the definition of low post play to mean any offensive possession by a player taller than 6’9” of course that is important... but then I have no idea what the words low post play mean anymore then given it used to refer to specific set of moves employed in whilst creating contact with your defender in specific spots on the court. Does this mean the high post is when a tall player brings the ball up court? Though I think you’ve got the dunking rookie preconception of griffin in your head because he should fit the new ROC definition of “low post” player in that he can create offensively both for him and team mates, in the half court. The bigger issue is Jordan. I’ve got no problem with you being down on the clips chances (me I blame Jordan not Griffin) I just don’t believe that low post play under the current rules, defensive strategies and player abilities is that valuable – but to be fair I didn’t realise it had changed to mean all offence by a tall guy.
Red Kev
Guest
Maybe I'm just naive when it comes to basketball (that's true by the way, I enjoy the game but I don't understand it the same way I do cricket or rugby) but I think it isn't putting the ball in the basket because people don't know how to play it that well anymore - surely Hakeem would be just as effective now in the post as he was back in the 90s.
mushi
Guest
1. If people really cared then they'd spend more than 4 or 5 days with the Dream. 2. the actual expected points per possession show it isn't a weapon, people can train all they like with the dream but if the league sin't putting the ball in the basket as a result it is irrelevant Is it nice to have in your pocket sure, so is a reliable 18 foot jumper. But neither are the stumlbing blocks to having an effective modern NBA offence.
mushi
Guest
Paul George was pretty gosh darn good against him also. Basically if you are strong, long, have really fast feet and get some mention for DPOY then you can do an adequate job one on one against him.
Red Kev
Guest
If it wasn't still a weapon guys wouldn't be seeking out Olajuwon to learn how to improve that facet of the game. It probably isn't a go to move, but it is a nice move to have in your pocket if nothing else is on or if you need a slow offensive possession. At least that's how I'd view it.
Ryman White
Editor
The Pacers and Spurs did so much to bust down the fear and lack of belief many teams seemed to carry into matches against the heat last season by how they went about taking games off them in the finals. But then so much of what was pulled down got put right back up when Allen and LeBron nailed those shots in game 6. So ridding the competition of the illusion of their indestructibility is what this season needs to be about/what I hope to see.
Ryan O'Connell
Expert
I think the definition of low post play has changed slightly over the years. There are less traditional back-to-the-basket post players now, but I think you still need an offensive presence down low, and/or on the baseline. Especially when the game slows down (and becomes more half-court) in the playoffs. If you look at the last 4 teams standing last year, they all had a low post presence of some type (West/Hibbert, Duncan, Gasol/Randolph and Lebron). But if you don't have one, you can make do with players that can at least make shots from the high post, baseline, mid-range or even deep. And that's the Clippers problem: their bigs are neither low post players, OR shooters. Chris Paul (and Doc Rivers) are good enough to overcome this, but it could still be a major issue against smart defensive teams. Which, once you get deeper into the playoffs, you generally face.
Doug Graves
Guest
Here's my tips for the East: 1) Heat 59-23 (2) Pacers 57-25 (3) Nets 52-30 (4) Bulls 56-26 (5) Knicks 50-32 (6) Cavs 43-39 (7) Hawks 41-41 (8) Wizards 40-42 1st round: Heat over Wizards 4-0, Pacers over Hawks 4-1, Nets over Cavs 4-1, Bulls over Knicks 4-2 2nd round: Bulls over Heat 4-3, Nets over Pacers 4-3 East Finals: Bulls over Nets 4-3 And West: 1) LAC 62-20 (2) OKC 58-24 (3) SAS 55-27 (4) GSW 53-29 (5) Rockets 52-30 (6) Grizz 49-33 (7) Minny 45-37 (8) Mavs 43-39 1st Round: LAC over Mavs 4-1, OKC over Minny 4-0, SAS over Grizz 4-3, Rockets over GSW 4-3 2nd Round: LAC over Rockets 4-3, SAS over OKC 4-2 West Finals: SAS over LAC 4-2 NBA Finals: SAS over Bulls 4-2 MVP: Chris Paul DPOY: LeBron James Finals MVP: Tim Duncan Stat leaders: PPG: Kevin Durant RPG: D12 APG: Chris Paul SPG: Chris Paul
mushi
Guest
Is low post play that important anymore? Isn't it just behind mid range shooting in the efficiency stakes outside of a handful of players in the league (randolph, Al Jefferson)? Most of the scoring bigs now do it with a face up game combined with the ability to finish off the pnr or their own handle
Ryan O'Connell
Expert
I think the Clippers are either wildly overrated, or I wildly underrate the influence coach Doc Rivers will have upon the team. As much as I respect Rivers, is he really going to help the frontcourt’s free throw shooting, especially in the fourth quarter? Is he really going to improve the team’s low post play? Can he improve the perception around the league that this team can be bullied around? I’m not so sure. The Clips added Jared Dudley, Antawn Jamison, Byron Mullens and JJ Reddick to their roster for the season. Absolutely fantastic recruiting, especially if the team’s biggest concern was outside shooting. Yet I’m not convinced it was. If the Clippers had pulled the trigger on the trade to bring in Kevin Garnett, I would legitimately consider them a championship threat, because he would have addressed their biggest weaknesses. But at present, I see this roster crushing teams all regular season, before getting crushed themselves once the real basketball starts in the playoffs.
Ryan O'Connell
Expert
Yes, the rugby league point was made with tongue-in-cheek, rather than making a direct comparison, mate! Having said that, the real point I was making is that greatness, ability, skill and talent don't really run 'out of steam'. The Heat are deep, and the only thing that made their stars log extra minutes last year was their run at the consecutive games won streak - which they admitted helped keep them 'up' and motivated during the regular season. I think coach Spo will be more judicious with his starters minutes this season, and keep them slightly fresher for the playoffs. I therefore think complacency will be a much bigger concern than running 'out of steam', especially as LeBron didn't have Olympic commitments this off-season.
Elisha Pearce
Guest
The Maroons haven't played more games than the Blues. They're all playing the same length of comp in NRL and then 3 SOO games. When you make the finals three times in a row you're literally playing more games than everyone else and shortening your off season. Not saying the Heat will just fall apart but that on top of any little bit of complacency could help see them loose. Indiana or Chicago in the east or San Antonio most likely teams to beat them.