Come January, two things are certain. You will have a large credit card bill to pay for Christmas gifts and Lionel Messi will be crowned the world’s best player.
While the credit card bill will almost certainly drop through the door, there is a real chance that Messi could be usurped as the best player on the planet this coming year.
That is not of course to suggest that anyone is actually better than him given that Maradona, Pele, Johan Cruyff, Franz Beckenbauer and Zinedine Zidane have all retired but the vote takes many things in to account, most importantly your achievements in that year.
Messi of course has still been wonderfully productive with 35 goals in 31 games this year meaning there should be little doubt as to the supremacy of his reign.
There is however a feeling that the crown may have slipped slightly this season and certainly while Barcelona are still the champions of Spain, they were rendered obsolete in the Champions League by Bayern Munchen.
While Messi’s play still astounds, he looks a more tired and altogether human player than the one that has destroyed teams at will for the past five seasons.
Injuries have started to niggle and many are now looking at this World Cup as his defining moment if he wishes to replace Maradona and Pele as the greatest player of all time.
It is of course all relative and his numbers still astound. This year however it does look a more open contest with other candidates coming in to the frame.
To be awarded the prize, a couple of criteria usually need to be met, you should be an attacking player – since 1996 only one defender has won, Fabio Cannavaro – therefore ruling Thiago Silva and the imperious Philip Lahm out of the running.
You should also generally play for a team that has won something, since Ronaldinho in 2004, no player has won the award when his team has failed to win silverware.
This presumably should then should rule out Ronaldo and Gareth Bale.
However, Ronaldo has scored 46 goals in 42 games so far this calendar year meaning his own absurd statistics carry on unchecked.
While less aesthetically pleasing – Sepp Blatter does prefer his hair however – than Messi he is no less effective and will surely be remembered as one of the greats of the game.
While Bale was tremendous for Spurs last season, the fact that his performances were not for an elite team and that the beginning to his Madrid career has been iffy will preclude his being genuinely in the running this time.
While there are superb players such as Iniesta and Pirlo who could have been worthy winners previously in a ‘non Messi era’, the competition would appear to be coming from two other fine attacking midfielders from Bayern, Franck Ribery and Arjen Robben.
Of the two, Ribery appears to have the most momentum and support.
Bayern’s all conquering season was the defining moment of these two players whose individual brilliance has often been intertwined with both personal and footballing disappointment.
Both have been sublime this year for Bayern and either is good enough to receive the award even if they remain a step down from Messi or Ronaldo in terms of pure ability.
There are of course other worthy mentions such as Ibrahimovic and Robin Van Persie although both would find it hard to argue a case of matching these other names for sheer excellence and achievements this year.
Personally I would like to see either Philip Lahm or Ronaldo receive the award as both would be worthy recipients and it would at least break from the Sebastien Vettel-like monotony of Messi winning.
It may however be that it is Franck Ribery who could break the Messi stranglehold, either that or the diminutive Argentine could coast to an unprecedented fifth consecutive award.
Steven McBain
Roar Guru
He's definitely worth a shout Alex. I was talking with some other Chelsea fans over the summer about who we'd like for the holding midfield roles and whilst it isn't a full use of his talent he was my main pick, just has so much presence and skill. Maybe too much of what he does goes unnoticed which is probably symptomatic of why attackers keeping gettting the award.
ohis
Guest
Personally,I think someone other than messi should get the ballon dor?he does it for barca,but Ronaldo,Ribery,Robben even the german players do it for both club and country,not taking anything from Messi,he is simply a delite to watch
AlexThanopoulos
Roar Rookie
Interesting debate going. Personally it should go to one of the Bayern lot. Personally would love to see Schweinsteiger get the nod. Has been very much ignored with all the mentions and was exceptional for Bayern this season.
ohis
Guest
Brian I don't get u?u said there would b no one coach that wouldt give it to either ronaldo or messi given a choice?I tot it was on merit and performance and success during the last year?ribery I tink should get it,cause he has started just were he left off last season,personally I think it shouldt be by [choice]
Francis Curro
Roar Pro
Well if he is the best, then keep giving it to him until someone else beats him. Maybe its an incentive for the other players to step up their games.
Steven McBain
Roar Guru
Nick, it's an interesting debate on Ibra. The BBC did a radio article on him (you can get the podcast through the 5 live specials) and it was very very interesting. There was quite a bit made of rather than his contributing to the team, it actually goes the other way where the team has to adapt to make everything about him. Now clearly he's a phenomenal talent who scores silly amounts of goals (great ones often too) and on balance it might be worth it but the article was saying that teams he plays in play dreadful football all for the purpose of serving him. I haven't watched enough of his club football week in week out to really comment on that however. I guess you could argue the same with many great players. There's been comments that Barca suffer when Messi isn't in the team (although which team wouldn't!) as their whole game is set up to suit him and likewise, Ronaldo receives a huge amount of the service at Real. Ribery more of an out and out creator serving the other players and the article that Cameron posted the link to above is worth a read, the stats in there are quite remarkable about how hard Ribery works and how he contributes. I remember reading a piece on Ibra whilst he was at Barca and one of the CL games when Guardiola got very exasperated with him. On the stats at the end of the game, apparently Victor Valdes had covered more ground than he had! If you listen to the BBC piece on him though, he has a very different take on Guardiola from most however, interesting stuff.
nickoldschool
Roar Guru
Messi, Ronaldo and Ribery seems to be the obvious trio then its all about assessing who had the biggest impact on his team's performance. IMO Ronaldo and Messi have skills Ribery doesn't have but he played such a big role in Bayern's fantastic season that he gets a couple of points for that. Regarding Ibra its true he has had a fantastic season at PSG plus he is still capable of scoring goals out of nowhere like against England or even a couple of weeks ago in the UCL. Having said that I don't think he has as much influence on his team's game as the 3 others.
Steven McBain
Roar Guru
He was Steve you right and I say that will go against him. Nevertheless I think he'd be a worthy winner if not my own personal pick.
Steven McBain
Roar Guru
Not sure about that Ohis. Bayern were very good last year but they can be beaten. Chelsea ground out a result against them in the CL final somehow or other and I think Barca of maybe two or three seasons ago, whilst a less complete team than Bayern possibly were pretty irresistible when the mood took them. Tough to compare.
Steven McBain
Roar Guru
Seb, I don't think there's any argument that Messi is the best player in the world - although there's a lot of debate that Alonso is better than you mate. I think however there's more to the vote than just that hence the debate above and the lack of certainty over the eventual winner. Not sure whether Messi in the Arsenal team is the best comparison though as most people see Arsenal as a poorer version of Barcelona in any event. I'd be more more interested to see him in a far more balanced and complete team - Bayern are the perfect example - with a good backline and just see what he could do with that kind of platform. I think they'd destroy everyone. Good luck on winning your 5th title though mate.
Steven McBain
Roar Guru
That's a really good article.
Steve
Guest
Ronaldo was also trophyless in 2013.
Seb Vettel
Guest
If I had any player in that list it would be messi. Because he is the best and will win you games. Imagine if a team like Arsenal had Messi. All that creativity with a lethal weapon - they would win the league without a doubt. They could even win the CL.
ohis
Guest
I hope frank gets the nod,his being really superb this year,can I ask what exactly they give the pionts to the winner?@steve u said macherano messi didt play against beyern,that's why they lost?I don't tink there was any other team that would have matched bayern last term or even now
Cameron
Roar Guru
I think this article reflects my sentiments quite well. http://m.bleacherreport.com/articles/1830655-why-franck-ribery-deserves-the-ballon-dor-over-ronaldo-and-messi
Stratty
Guest
Good call Stu, Mueller is a great player and I believe has greater pull than Ribery! -- Comment from The Roar's iPhone app.
Stratty
Guest
Fully understand Steven that the winner usually comes from a winning team etc... however like the Brownlow is AFL, the best player in the world should be judged by the impact on their team and how they influence games. They have got it right over recent years, but if Ribery wins, how he fits in with the likes of previous winners will be baffling! -- Comment from The Roar's iPhone app.
Steven McBain
Roar Guru
Stratty, I think there's plenty of room for debate in terms of who should win but as mentioned, there are certain criteria that appear to have a huge weighting towards the eventual winner, namely it helps to be an attacking player and it helps to have won things that year. In that respect Ribery fits the bill whereas guys like Falcao, Bale and Cavanni would be excluded on the basis of being trophyless. I think RVP had a superb first half to last season but over this calendar year he's faded badly, Ibra is a wonderful player but doing it in Ligue Une won't cut it for the voters either. I think Ronaldo, Messi and Robben would be worthy winners also and personally I'd like to see Philip Lahm get it. It just seems this time that Ribery's got an awful lot of momentum out there and there does seem an ability to 'influence' the outcome of this vote...........
Stratty
Guest
I was surprised Ribery won the Euro player of the year. There's a handful of players I'd have for the worlds best before him. I've seen so many games where Ribery gets caught trying to dribble past opponents for France and Bayern. Messi, Ronaldo, Bale, Robben, Falcao, Ibrahimovic, Cavanni, van Persie ahead of him. Bayern were the best side in Europe but how much influence did Ribery have on that team compared to the others I have mentioned? I'd even have Reus ahead of him! -- Comment from The Roar's iPhone app.
Nicholas Cusack
Roar Rookie
Ribery is good, however, Messi has proved his worth once again as the best player in the World. Would be surprised if anyone besides Messi recieved the honours.