The Roar
The Roar

Advertisement

2013 Melbourne Cup: The guide to finding a winner, and beating the myths

31st October, 2013
Advertisement
The winning horse Dunaden (right, behind) races ahead of Red Cadeaux across the finish line during race seven for Melbourne Cup at Flemington Racecourse in Melbourne, Tuesday, Nov. 1, 2011. (AAP Image/Julian Smith)
Expert
31st October, 2013
47
30449 Reads

Don’t know much about horse racing but still want to pick the Melbourne Cup winner? What time does the 2013 Melbourne Cup start? Here are a few basic guidelines for the race that stops a nation, which begins at 3.00pm AEDT.

Looking for 2014 Melbourne Cup:
» Preview and top tips
» Alfred Chan’s individual horse analysis and tips
» Andrew Hawkins ultimate Melbourne Cup preview
» PREDICTION: Signoff to win the Melbourne Cup
» Full field and odds
» Historical form analysis for 2014 Melbourne Cup
» Latest news, field and odds updates

1. 24 horses and weights – what do they mean?
The Melbourne Cup is a handicap race. This means every horse has been allocated a certain weight based on their perceived ability.

Handicapping is done so – all things being equal – every horse in the field will supposedly cross the line at the same time.

The first horse, number 1, carries the top weight. It has either won the Melbourne Cup before, or has gone close, or has won similar races.

The bottom horse carries the least weight.

The best horse does not necessarily win the Melbourne Cup. The horse that best beats the handicapper does.

It very difficult for the top weight to win a Melbourne Cup. Only one horse, that being Makybe Diva in 2005, has carried the top weight to victory since Rising Fast did so in 1954.

Advertisement

It is worth noting both Makybe Diva and Rising Fast are considered champions of Australian racing.

One kilogram is said to be worth about two lengths per mile travelled, but that is also quoted as a myth.

Regardless, Dunaden will carry top weight of 58.5kg in 2013, after winning with 54.5kg in 2011.

2. Owners, trainers, and quirks
Some owners and trainers target the Melbourne Cup. It’s one of the most prestigious races in the world, and comes with a $3.6m cheque for the winner.

Bart Cummings has won the Melbourne Cup 12 times and will be relying on Precedence to make the final field as his only runner.

Lloyd Williams (and trainer Robert Hickmott) is likely to have six runners – Green Moon, Sea Moon, Masked Marvel, Seville, Fawkner and Mourayan – in this year’s Cup.

He won it last year with Green Moon and conditions his horses to win the Cup.

Advertisement

He bypasses millions of dollars in prize money from autumn racing to exclusively target the Melbourne Cup in spring.

Gai Waterhouse has never won the Melbourne Cup – but it’s only in the last couple of years she has really put her efforts, and money, into it.

She’ll likely have the favourite with Fiorente, and a light-weight French horse, Tres Blue.

The quirks – Bart Cummings and Lloyd Williams can peak their horses, regardless of form.

Everyone else needs to show at least some good form to be given any hope.

3. Look for a last-start winner
11 of the past 19 Cup winners won at their previous start.

Of the likely runners, Fawkner, Sea Moon, Tres Blue, Voleuse Des Couers and Verema are all last start winners.

Advertisement

Others on the edge of making the field are Precedence and Ibicenco, but they will need others above them in the order of entry to pull out for them to make the final field.

The winners of the Lexus Stakes and Mackinnon Stakes on Saturday, Nov 1, must also be considered.

4. Overseas horses? You prefer them to have a loosener in Australia
Only five horses not trained in Australia or NZ have won the Cup.

Only one of those has done it without a lead-in run and that was Vintage Crop all the way back in 1993. The rest all had a race.

Of the international raiders, Simenon ran very well to finish second in the Herbert Power Stakes and Dandino ran second in the Caulfield Cup.

5. Don’t worry about local vs foreign jockeys
Some say local jockeys have a slight edge, but three of the past seven winners haven’t been from Australasia.

With its long straight, Flemington would have to be one of the easiest tracks for overseas jockeys to adapt to.

Advertisement

In Europe, most major tracks have straights much longer than Flemington’s so if you can ride in Europe, you can ride at Flemington.

6. Had a run and didn’t win? Trying again to win doesn’t happen often
Most horses that have tried this have failed.

Only one in the past 23 years has tried again and won – Brew in 2000. There are a number of those this year.

Fiorente, the favourite, is one. Red Cadeaux, which lost by a nose hair to Dunaden in 2011, is another.

And those that increase in weight don’t do so well, historically.

Fiorente, Red Cadeaux and Green Moon are all stepping up in weight from 2012. Dunaden drops in weight a tiny bit from last year but he still has to carry the top weight for the second year running.

7. The barrier
Barrier 1 is the closest to the running rail. Barrier 24 is as far out as you can get.

Advertisement

With the shortest distance from barrier to post being along the rail, in general, you’d prefer to be drawn closer to Barrier 1, rather than Barrier 23.

No horse has won from Barrier 18 before, while Barrier 7 has had 1 win only – in 152 runnings of the race.

On Saturday night, the barrier draw will be held for the 2013 Melbourne Cup.

8. Favourites and roughies
Only two favourites in the last 15 years have won – and that was Makybe Diva (in 2004 and 2005).

In fact since 1990, when the favourite has won the Melbourne Cup, the following year’s favourite has also come first.

But, in the history of the Melbourne Cup, the favourite has not won three Cups in a row.

Favourites have a relatively poor record when it comes to finishing in the top three.

Advertisement

13 favourites have run a place in the last 35 years – so with Sportsbet giving money back if your horse comes 2nd, 3rd or 4th, it could be an offer worth taking up.

Melbourne Cup betting favourites have won 32 times in 151 years.

Roughies paying more than $100 (100-1) have only ever won three times.

9. The winning age of a horse
The general rule is to stay away from horses which are seven years old or older.

In the past 30 years, only four seven-year-olds have won. No horse older than seven has won in the last 30 years and only two eight-year-olds have ever won, Toryboy in 1865 and Catalogue in 1938.

So, which horses might be too old?

2013 Melbourne Cup eight-year-olds – Dunaden, Red Cadeaux, Precedence, Mourayan.

Advertisement

2013 Melbourne Cup seven-year-olds – Dandino, Jet Away, Green Moon, Simenon, Foreteller.

In the history of the Cup however, the most successful age group has been five-year-olds.

Five-year-olds have won the Cup 46 times, four-year-olds have won 43 times, six-year-olds have won 28 times, three-year-olds have won 23 times and seven-year-olds have won 10 times.

10. The horse’s name (a myth?)
History suggests a horse with a one word name will win the Melbourne Cup.

In its 152 runnings, 86 winners have had a one-word name. 61 winners have had a two-word name and only five winners have had a three-word name.

But, of course, those statistics fail to indicate how many horses in each Melbourne Cup had a one-word, two-word or three-word name.

11. Silk colours
Black is best when it comes to winning colours – with 17 jockeys wearing silks that were predominantly wearing black.

Advertisement

Navy blue and royal blue are the next best, with 15 and 14 wins apiece.

2012’s winner wore the navy blue of Lloyd Williams.

12. The weather
The weather will have an impact – some horses love a mud track, some horses much prefer to run on a good track.

The forecast so far is for cool, dry weather for the lead-up and for the day of the big race. This will likely mean a hard track, known as a ‘Dead’ or even a ‘Good’ track – which is a racing term for how hard the track is.

The Roar will have a full preview ahead of the race, which will cover the chances of the horses, taking into account weather.

Melbourne Cup 2013 Weather Forecast, prediction and precipitation

Melbourne Cup, VIC 3031 Weather
Advertisement

Best of luck for the Cup!

OFFICIAL 2013 Melbourne Cup FINAL FIELD (in order of entry)

No

Horse

Trainer

Jockey

Barrier

Weight

1

DUNADEN (FR)

Mikel Delzangles

Jamie Spencer

1

58.5kg

2

GREEN MOON (IRE)

Robert Hickmott

Brett Prebble

10

57.5kg

3

RED CADEAUX (GB)

Ed Dunlop

Gerald Mosse

23

56.5kg

4

SEA MOON (GB)

Robert Hickmott

Steven Arnold

7

56.5kg

5

BROWN PANTHER (GB)

Tom Dascombe

Richard Kingscote

6

55kg

6

FIORENTE (IRE)

Gai Waterhouse

Damien Oliver

5

55kg

7

FORETELLER (GB)

Chris Waller

Craig Newitt

15

55kg

8

DANDINO (GB)

Marco Botti

Ryan Moore

4

54.5kg

9

ETHIOPIA

Pat Carey

Rhys McLeod

14

54.5kg

10

FAWKNER

Robert Hickmott

Nicholas Hall

8

54.5kg

11

MOURAYAN (IRE)

Robert Hickmott

Brenton Avdulla

19

54.5kg

12

SEVILLE (GER)

Robert Hickmott

Hugh Bowman

9

54.5kg

13

SUPER COOL

Mark Kavanagh

Corey Brown

13

54.5kg

14

MASKED MARVEL (GB)

Robert Hickmott

Michael Rodd

2

54kg

15

MOUNT ATHOS (IRE)

Luca Cumani

Craig Williams

22

54kg

16

ROYAL EMPIRE (IRE)

Saeed Bin Suroor

Kerrin McEvoy

11

54kg

17

VOLEUSE DE COEURS (IRE)

Michael Moroney

James McDonald

21

54kg

18

HAWKSPUR

Chris Waller

Jim Cassidy

18

53.5kg

19

SIMENON (IRE)

William Mullins

Richard Hughes

12

53.5kg

20

IBICENCO (GER)

Peter G Moody

Luke Nolen

17

53kg

21

VEREMA (FR)

Alain de Royer Dupre

Christophe Lemaire

3

53kg

22

DEAR DEMI

Clarry Conners

Chris Munce

16

51kg

23

TRES BLUE (IRE)

Gai Waterhouse

Tommy Berry

20

51kg

24

RUSCELLO (IRE)

Ed Walker

Chad Schofield (a)

24

50kg

close