Can you feel that tingle down your spine? Can you feel the hairs on the back of your neck rising? Can you feel the butterflies churning in your stomach?
Nervous tension has overtaken our bodies. Our wedding day has nothing on this. The birth of a child doesn’t quite compare.
That’s right, Derby Day is upon us again. It’s Christmas come early, and Santa has delivered the highest quality fields in nine Group races, four of them at the highest level. The depth is astounding, the value mouth-watering.
Let’s get into the main race, the AAMI Victoria Derby (2500m) for the three-year-olds, and have a look at each horse individually.
1. Criterion
It’s always nice when a quality two year old becomes a quality three year old, and Criterion is such an example, a Group 2 winner last season and Group 1 placed last start in the Spring Champion, coming home hungrily, giving the impression that the 2500m will be right up his alley.
Like several of the favourites, he has a tricky draw to contend with as his negative.
2. Complacent
This horse just keeps getting better, and has deservedly been battling for Derby favouritism all spring.
He’s looking for his fourth win on the trot after accounting for the likes of Savvy Nature and Criterion in the Gloaming and Spring Champion. He won’t get the cosy run he’s been used to from his wide barrier though, but if you like him, you’re getting great odds.
3. Savvy Nature
The owner of five impressive runs this campaign, and getting better with each one.
Made a mess of them in the Vase last week, and can have only benefited from a run the Melbourne way of going in a way the above two colts haven’t.
Also drawn wide, so won’t get any favours early, but if he gets the breaks passing the winning post the first time, he’s the one to beat.
4. Polanski
There’s no better form than winning form, and Polanski has taken out two of the key lead-up races to the Derby, the Super Impose at Flemington and the Norman Robinson at Caulfield.
His best asset is the ability to sit handy and grind his opponents out of the race, and from barrier one he’ll get the cosiest run of any horse. He’ll hit the front at some stage in the straight, and not many, if any, will get past him.
5. Drago
He caught the eye first-up in the Up and Coming to such an extent that our own Justin Cinque declared him his Derby horse, and it was hard to disagree at the time.
Since then, he’s been disappointing despite his Gloaming placing, and we haven’t seen anything from him that suggests he can turn the tables on Savvy Nature and Complacent.
6. San Diego
Has been running well behind good horses this campaign, without necessarily threatening the winners, but we saw his best last start when he took up the running rather than settling back.
Set up the race for Polanski in the Norman Robinson, but boxed on superbly in an effort that suggested he would make a tough stayer. One of the leading chances.
7. Honey Steel’s Gold
Not the worst horse in the race but, unfortunately for connections, not the best in it either.
Polanski came from behind him in the Norman Robinson, and he couldn’t catch San Diego who was in front, ultimately going down by the best part of five lengths.
8. Tips and Beers
Had won three in a row in the weaker grades before finding himself five lengths in arrears of Savvy Nature in the Vase last week.
It’s hard to see him turning the tables on that horse, which in turn makes him look inferior to a few others as well.
9. Epic Saga
Racing as honestly as any three year old in the country, and giving every indication that he’ll relish the 2500m, but he’s another from the Norman Robinson that will find it hard to turn the tables on the first two home.
Still, you’ll find plenty of worse horses to back at the $10 the place.
10. Tupac Amaru
Couldn’t get within five lengths of Polanski in the Super Impose, despite taking ground off most runners, and followed it up with a second in the Geelong Classic, which hasn’t been the worst form reference for this race in recent years. Needs to find a bit though.
11. Pinstripe Lane
Ran a nice race behind Polanski two starts back, and then was probably a better run than all but Savvy Nature in the Vase, but was soundly beaten. Get the feeling he’ll beat home more than beat him at a good price.
12. Throw The King
Failed to make a dent in the Geelong Classic, but that was on heavy ground, so he can be forgiven. I’m never one to read anything into runs on bottomless ground. Form before that was building to something though.
Obviously needs to find a bit, and won’t be appearing in many trifectas or first fours.
13. Thunder Fantasy
Has a five length win to his credit this campaign, and hasn’t had a lot go right since in good races.
All those that were furious at Fiveandahalfstar for kicking them out in the first leg of the quaddie at 40-1 last year should take note – this horse has the same trainer and same odds. He’ll sit handy from a good draw, and is a value chance.
14. Surging Wave
One of many whose form will be assessed against Polanski, and thus far he hasn’t been up to that horse.
Barrier 15 doesn’t do him any favours either, as he’s almost certain to get snagged back to the tail. From there, he’d have to pass too many horses that are better than him to win.
15. Famechon
No Mike Moroney-trained stayer can ever be completely discounted once they get over a trip, and he was probably already looking for further than the 2000m of the Norman Robinson last start. Might be a chance if they decide to go around for another lap.
16.Bring Something
One of the more interesting runners of the day, and arguably the best ‘odds’ chance of the race. Was able to get within three lengths of Divine Calling and a certain Shamus Award in the Stutt Stakes two starts back, coming from last to do so.
Again got too far out of his ground in the Norman Robinson but hit the line nicely. Bossy won’t die wondering on him, and Cox Plate form has to be good form doesn’t it?
17. Cadillac Mountain (emerg)
A tricky runner to assess if he gets a start, winning a country maiden in the classic Peter Moody style before coming to town and failing with excuses in the Norman Robinson. I don’t see many people backing him.
18. Empire Rock (emerg)
Could very well be the worst horse to ever race on Derby day if he gets a start.
Selections
1.Savvy Nature
2.Polanski
3.Bring Something
4.Complacent
Mackinnon Stakes, 2000m
With the non-acceptances of Happy Trails, Foreteller, Fawkner and Silent achiever, this edition of the Mackinnon, sadly, wouldn’t be out of place as a Group 3.
Still, one set of connections will be getting their hands on the $600,000 first place, and I doubt they’ll be complaining about the strength of the race.
Jet Away is the obvious favourite after his massive Caulfield Cup run that was missed by nobody. Dear Demi, Mr Moet and Moriarty all pleased behind him, without suggesting they could turn the tables if Jet Away settles and brings his best.
Solzhenitsyn is flying, and ready to test himself over the distance. Pakal will win better races than the Cranbourne Cup, and Mourayan did run second in a stronger Mackinnon than this, albeit was probably going a bit better at the time.
Side Glance brings the Cox Plate form, and is a strong blow-out chance.
A tricky little race to assess, and there might be more to it than meets the eye.
Selections
1.Side Glance
2.Solzhenitsyn
3.Jet Away
4.Pakal
Myer Classic
Red Tracer is one of the best horses in the country and entitled to be a short favourite here, but with eight career starts beyond 1400m and not a win among them, you can leave me out of taking $2.30 or so about her over 1600m against the best mares in the land.
Her stablemate, Catkins, is the obvious danger after proving herself at the mile last week, recording a comfortable win giving almost the entire field 5kg’s. She’s as tough, game and honest as Red Tracer, and will do fans of the cerise proud.
Fire Up Fifi is in hot form and will be the strongest at the end of the mile, while Sharnee Rose is blitzing in Sydney, finding the winning form that eluded her when housed in Melbourne. There are plenty of other chances at odds in a race that may well be wider than it first appears – Bonaria, Floria, Molto Bene and Zonza must all be taken seriously.
Selections
1.Catkins
2.Red Tracer
3.Fire Up Fifi
4.Molto Bene
Coolmore Stud Stakes, 1600m
How do you go past Zoustar? As ten rivals are sure to find out tomorrow, not easily.
He’s been set for this since his Golden Rose win, and demolished some smart rivals last time in a pit-stop before Flemington. He’s the one to beat, and the market firmly suggests it.
For second place, I’m going with a horse at precisely the other end of betting, the despised outsider Fast N Rocking.
This horse was so impressive over 1200m earlier this campaign, he started favourite in Zoustar’s Golden Rose in his very next start.
He gave the likes of Divine Calling and Thermal Current windburn that day, and yet is now double and triple their odds over the same distance? Madness. The main danger to the favourite for mine.
Selections
1.Zoustar
2.Fast N Rocking
3.Not Listenin’tome
4.Missy Longstocking
Lexus Stakes, 2500m
Along with the Group 1s, I know we will be live blogging the Lexus Stakes from Flemington as we all keep an eye on who will be securing those final positions in the Cup field.
What a tough, even race it looks to be.
Selections
1.Let’s Make Adeal
2.Bass Straight
3.Araldo
4.Motivado
Might as well give my other selections as well, with only four other races left!
I reckon Equator might just steal a break on Hucklebuck in the Carbine Club (1600m), so I’m happy to take the better odds on him. May’s Dream is the best short-price horse of the day in the Wakeful.
Albrecht has the perfect lead-up form and weight to win the Yellowglen (1200m) as my each-way best of the day.
British General, as the only obvious speed in the race, will take a power of beating in the last over his favourite track and distance.
Settle back, enjoy the greatest day of racing Australia has to offer, and let it all wash over you. Then it’s only 365 sleeps until we do it all again!
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