The Wallabies loss to England at Twickenham, even though there were extenuating circumstances, has put pressure on Ewen McKenzie to win at least three out of the next four Tests on the European tour.
Anything worse than this will mean his position as the Wallabies coach will be under pressure from advocates within Australia rugby for Jake White or, if being an Australian is now the imperative for the coaching job, Michael Cheika.
This is despite the fact Cheika has made a promising start, only, as the coach of the Waratahs.
One of the strengths, if this is the correct word, of McKenzie’s situation is the ARU can hardly afford to pay out another Wallaby coach before his contract has expired.
But continued failures by the Wallabies may create the wave of media and supporter antagonism towards McKenzie the ARU cannot resist.
But this scenario depends a great deal on the performance of the Wallabies.
Right now it is safe to say the Wallabies have gone back somewhat under McKenzie, rather than forward. And this is despite the fact that after the losing series against the British and Irish Lions, it was hard to see how the Wallabies could get much worse.
I go now to an interesting column written by Mark Ella before the Test against England.
Ella started off with the opinion the Wallabies Grand Slam “will tell us whether ARU boss Bill Pulver made the right decision to replace Robbie Deans with Ewen McKenzie as coach.”
This is the first time, as far as I can remember, an influential Australian rugby figure has raised the possibility the promotion of McKenzie to the Wallabies coaching job, a promotion he pushed hard for himself, supported by a group of former Wallabies on the ARU board, might turn out to be a mistake.
Ella justified his scepticism about McKenzie’s performance as coach by suggesting “on the evidence so far the Wallabies have gone backwards since McKenzie took over.”
He made the point McKenzie, with the 3-0 blackwash to the All Blacks, had done no better than Deans, “who struggled to beat the All Blacks”.
But Deans did have an “outstanding record” record against the Springboks, winning nine of 14 Tests, while McKenzie lost both Tests against the Springboks and “did not look competitive against them at all”.
Remember this was written before the England Test. The point can be made now that Deans’ Wallabies defeated England at Twickenham last year, while McKenzie’s team was defeated a week ago.
On Monday, Brett Harris, writing for The Australian (like Mark Ella), began his column on the loss to England with these startling opening sentences: ‘The dream is over. Australia wake up!‘
The article was given the self-explanatory headline: Time for Wallabies’ delusions to end.
Harris went through the delusions. He attacked the emphasis on refereeing mistakes. I believe Harris is wrong in this. But his main point, “the Wallabies were simply not good enough to take advantage” of an England side missing five of its Lions, is hard to argue against.
The point about the Ella and Harris articles, and their direction, is The Australian was the most strident of all the media outlets for the removal of Deans and the enthronement of McKenzie.
And the leader of this charge for a change was Wayne Smith, the voice of the Queensland rugby interests in the national sphere.
This article was written on the Wednesday before the Test against Italy at Turin. We are yet to hear what Smith thinks of the England Test and the coming Test against Italy, and the other coming Tests of what Harris is calling a “very treacherous tour”.
While it is too early, in my opinion, to start calling for McKenzie’s head, there are aspects of his coaching he must be called on to change and improve.
The nonsense of leaving the Wallabies on the field at half-time, for instance, has turned into a bad joke that is working against his team.
McKenzie’s defence of the ‘tactic’ is it helps keep the Wallabies in the moment. They have become used to losing focus during the half-time break. By leaving them on the field, so the argument runs, they remain switched on and ready to go straight into action from the second half kick-off.
Well, here is a statistic that puts the tactic into its ridiculous perspective. The Wallabies led England 13-6 at halftime and lost 20-13.
This is the first time since the third Test in New Zealand in 2010 the Wallabies have lost a Test after leading at halftime.
And here is another statistic that reveals the true reason for the second half collapses by the Wallabies.
The Test against England was the seventh time since the beginning of the 2011 season the Wallabies have been held scoreless in the second half of a Test.
What this suggests, in my view, is that being on or off the field at half-time has nothing to do with a second half performance (although I can’t see how it can improve play with the players being denied access to the toilets, showers and to some privacy for some needed ear-bashing).
The weak Wallabies play in the second half of Tests in recent years has more to do with the current lack of real match fitness by the majority of Australian players.
The Super Rugby franchises, even though they have months to prepare their teams before the season starts, just do not present really match-fit, match-hard players for the Wallaby coaches.
As Scott Allen has demonstrated very brilliantly The Roar on Tuesday (why isn’t he in the Wallaby coaching set up?), there has been little improvement in the technical aspects of the Wallabies scrumming since McKenzie, a former very good prop, has become coach.
I can’t see how McKenzie and Andrew Blades (the scrum guru) have allowed Ben Mowen at number 8 and the flankers to stop pushing virtually as soon as the scrums engage.
Some of the scrums shown by Scott Allen reveal Mowen virtually detaching to look at the opposition’s attacking set-up or to divert the Wallaby ball into a more convenient channel. Meanwhile, the Wallaby scrum is disintegrating around him.
If Scott Allen can see this, why can’t the Wallaby coaches?
The experiment of dropping James Horwill as the skipper and Will Genia as the vice-captain needs to stopped and Horwill and Genia must be reinstated.
Mowen is a more marginal player, in my view, than Horwill. And when David Pocock, Wycliff Palu and Scott Higginbotham come back there is no room in the backrow for Mowen.
And it may well be the Brumbies 2012 five-eighths combination of Christian Lealiifano and Matt Toomua (but the other way around) is a better combination than having Quade Cooper at number 10 and whoever at inside centre.
The worst aspect about McKenzie’s Wallabies is they don’t seem to be a very happy bunch. There is no joy in their game and certainly they are not providing much joy for their supporters.
Winners are grinners, as they say. So it is imperative for McKenzie and for the Wallabies to defeat Italy.
If they can do so in style, then this could lift a team that very much seems stuck in the doldrums, unfortunately.
wirimu
Guest
It will be interesting to see what the next 12 months bring for EM. Basically he has the same field of players to draw from as Dingo Deans. Without the depth of quality players in Aussie's rugby, the coach has to make do with what he's got in front of him EM perhaps opened his 'gob' a bit to soon on how his Wallabies were going to deal with some pretty good opposition. Its all well to talk running rugby & scoring tries but you have to have your share of the action up front. For an ex Wallaby prop EM hasn't managed much improvement in this area. We have heard how EM was going to make the Wallabies a winning team, here is hoping that we don't have to hear EM being the complete International Rugby Coach of the year whinger at the end of next season
Mike
Guest
You still apparently have great difficulty in reading posts, expathack, and now you are trying to defend a bizarre decision of the ARU - you think it was better to give McKenzie a few weeks with his new team before playing the ABs, instead of giving him 6 months and an S15 season to prepare?! I will give you this - you do deserve to be on the ARU board.
Mike
Guest
No not even close. When we regularly beat South Africa, France, England, Wales etc, then we will be back to the standard set under Deans. If McKenzie can then eliminate the occasional loss to weaker teams (which he will get the chance to do shortly against Scotland), and win more than 17% of games against the ABs, we will be ahead of where we were under Deans. At the moment. McKenzie is struggling to win much more than that against anyone. I hope that will change tonight.
Tim C12
Guest
Deans error was a success. The wallabies still invoked fear in the ABs as they were bloody competitive and beat the boks a couple of times. When a new coach comes on board, he is expected to start on a winning note. This instills confidence in both the team and coach ala Dingo's first game in charge. I have a feeling this is a bridge too far for Link and he will be soon found out. I dont see the wallabies beating Wales and will struggle to beat Ireland. Spiro you are right, the knives are definitely being sharpened.
expathack
Guest
Absolutely, he wisely stuck with tried and true options. Like JOC at fly-half.
expathack
Guest
"Why not remove Deans after the EOYT" You serious? Why would you have a lame duck coach finish on the one part of the year that's traditionally most about development? What possible value would you get from it??? I couldn't believe that Deans was originally supposed to finish after the end of year tour. It defied common sense.
expathack
Guest
Sorry Mike, you're right I wasn't looking at the full picture. When lose to both Scotland AND Samoa we'll ve back to where we were under Robbie.
Jerry
Guest
That first sentence should read "actually only slightly worse in 2012".
ronaldo
Guest
The coach, the team & some journos seem to find an excuse for the worsening performances in that the team has a new coach & so have to learn to play another tune & that this will take time. Well, the way I see it the W are fast running out of time as the supporter base they had is fast dwindling away. Maybe someone can analyse the crowds at Super 15 matches in Australia & compare them with the other codes especially what is happening in the A League. What happens is you first lose the crows, then the dollars, then the player base who want to pay the game …. then you 'die'.
Rhino
Guest
This short term rugby media cycle is so frustrating. After a good win against Argentina it was "we're on the way back". After an improved showing against ABs in dead rubber, it was "an improved performance". Now after losing to England (thanks in part to dreadful refereeing) its "the new coach is on his last chance". This isn't a great team and there are very few world class players in this squad. Once we get injured players back I would hope we would be more competitive. And hopefully McKenzie can shape them into a decent force by the next World Cup. But can we start judging him at end of next year rather than 3 months into the gig. At the moment it's all pig ears and silk purses.
RichiesToenail
Guest
McKenzie is doing the best he can and that is set in concrete. It’s just whether his best is acceptable to the Wallaby supporters. He will always be an average international rugby coach and his appointment has been widely heralded through-out the world as a grand one for obvious reasons. His noise prior to obtaining the coaching role gave some insight to his character. This has been further demonstrated with the half-time ‘stay-on-the-field’ fiasco, and sitting with the remaining squad players during a test. While it may be intended as a ‘father-like’ coaching move – it clearly will have a negative impact in developing leadership qualities from the bench and on the field. Often the Wallabies play like headless chickens as his mico-management becomes apparent. From afar it’s difficult to see what the Australian game plan is during a match. It’s as though McKenzie concentrates on the game plan of his opposition rather than coaching/developing the team with sound basic tactics. Long may he stay. Anyway, a win over Italy this weekend will eventuate and again, paper over the cracks and satisfy his hungry supporters.
Mike
Guest
Red Kev, you are aware that Wallabies in 2011 3N, scored an average of 2.75 tries per match? With McCabe at No 12 in every match. In 2010 they scored an average of 2.66 tries per match, without McCabe. I am not demanding that McCabe should be brought back, or even saying that he was necessarily the best choice for 12 then. But there is a lot of mythology floating around about that time, and a lot of "black-and-white" statements that just don't stand up on closer scrutiny. Things are more complex than they at first appear.
Mike
Guest
Well put. I just find the idea that Link has settled on a backline now laughable. He will continue to experiment (as he should). By end of 2014 he will start to get settled, and the squad he takes into TRC 2015 will be pretty much his RWC squad.
Mike
Guest
How were they "rubbish"?
Mike
Guest
Who are you to denigrate the team as "rubbish"? Yes, they have had some bad results since RWC 2011 (and before it, for that matter). They have also had some good ones.
Jerry
Guest
They've scored 78 points, so the points difference is actually slightly worse. They have scored more tries (6 to 1) true but they've also conceded far more (12 to 3). In fact they conceded twice as many tries in the first Bledisloe test as they did all year in 2012.
soapit
Guest
mate robbies job was decided on the result of that series so its fairly understandable he went with players that he had more knowledge of their test abilities. dont think you get too many debtants in lions series generally.
soapit
Guest
tane 1. i was never a mckenzie backer. i had no idea how he would go at the job. 2. your analysis is poor and simplistic and no side issues impact that
Mike
Guest
expathack, do you even read posts? This is what I wrote: "He’s had a forgettable TRC and a loss to England. Bitterly amusing for those of us who kept pointing out that Deans wasn’t that bad, but hardly sacking material." Now this time, try to come back with something that actually responds. "A lot of you blokes on here are making out like he got cruelly shafted before he ever got a proper chance." I haven't suggested that, and I am not sure that anyone else has either. But in any case, if someone has, then kindly respond to them and don't waste my time with your fantasies. Sorry but life is too short. ... ;) "Both of those criteria were true in Australia’s case." Actually, neither were remotely true. (a) "going backwards" is what has happened since McKenzie took over; and (b) Far from being as far out from a major tournament as possible, the ARU picked the worst possible time for the change over. Why not move Deans on at the end of 2012 EOYT? That would have been simple and logical. I am not yet convinced that McKenzie will be one of the great coaches (although he may prove me wrong) - but whatever chances he had were not helped in the least by dumping him in the position a few weeks before the TRC. Why you would advocate that is beyond me.
Mike
Guest
No expathack, we won't be. When we start to win consistently against Boks, England, France and Wales, then we will be back to the standard it was under Deans. Simple truth. And by this time next year, McKenzie may well have done just that. Let's wait and see, shall we, instead of trying to make out that McKenzie's current record is acceptable. I am sure he doesn't think it is.