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Australia’s team, especially its pace attack, for the first Test in Brisbane looks good, and gives an Australian fan hope we could pull off an upset this summer.
Fans are encouraged by Ryan Harris staying fit for four Tests in a row in England, as well as Mitchell Johnson’s apparent newfound confidence; predicting (or praying) there’s no way he’ll reach the lows of previous Ashes series.
Among the starting pace attack, however, there lies a number of big uncertainties.
One is whether Harris can stay fit for five Tests (especially if Shane Watson is unable to bowl early on in the series).
Secondly, the biggest if, is whether Johnson can put his talents to good use and deliver an at least servicable performance.
Only if these two scenarios play out can Australia win the Ashes, and even then, it will be extremely tight.
Even the most enthusiastic Johnson backer should not expect him to have average under 25 with the ball this summer. It won’t happen.
The fact is, Johnson will go for runs, but the key is whether he’ll be able to, in between the inevitable wides and loose balls, roughen up the English batsmen (and tailenders), and take crucial wickets to break partneships.
If he has 20 wickets at an average of 30 after five Tests, he’s more than done his job.
This writer doesn’t expect Nathan Lyon to run through the English at any stage in the series, so Johnson’s firepower becomes crucial in us taking 20 wickets.
The doomsday scenario would be, say, if Harris breaks down by the third Test and is ruled out for the rest of the series, and Mitch, perhaps used wrongly by Michael Clarke, gets it completely wrong early on in the series; leaving the selectors with no choice but to drop him before any more damage is done.
If this occurs, and halfway through the series we see an attack with the likes of Ben Hilfenhaus and Ben Cutting partnering Peter Siddle, we stand little hope of winning another Test.
Fans may scoff at the possibility of this eventuating, but given Harris’ fitness record and Johnson’s career record, it’s an all-too-real possibility.
This danger gives even more merit to the idea of playing James Faulkner instead of Nathan Lyon at the Gabba if the wicket looks quick, bouncy and grassy, as has been reported.
With Shane Watson unlikely to bowl in Brisbane, Australia must be wary of putting too big a workload too early on Harris and Johnson.
With the wicket seaming, the combatative Tasmanian, as part of a four-pronged pace attack, may be Australia’s best chance of not only going one-nil up after a Test, but also setting the other quicks up for a consistent Ashes series.
Since being introduced to international cricket early in the year, Faulkner has not let Australia down yet.
If the Johnson and Harris stories don’t go to script and the doomsday scenario is played out, Australia could be two Tests down by Sydney.
Even if Faulkner plays only a couple of Tests this summer, the variety and tenacity he offers could be vital for Australia’s hopes.
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