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Can the Irish pull off a shock win against the All Blacks?

Roar Rookie
22nd November, 2013
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Ireland's lock Paul O'Connell (2nd R) and other players react next to Australian players including fly-half Quade Cooper (R) and Australia's scrum-half Will Genia (L) during the 2011 Rugby World Cup pool C match Australia vs Ireland AFP PHOTO / GABRIEL BOUYS
Roar Rookie
22nd November, 2013
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3947 Reads

Last week I wrote of my expectation that the All Blacks would manage to see off the English, but also of a feeling in my waters that they might still be heading for another end-of-year ambush, though this time in Dublin.

Not because the Irish are a great team, but because they are a good-enough team to take advantage of the All Blacks if they take their eyes off the ball.

One week on, and the pasting Ireland were given by the Wallabies throws a big, ornery cat among the delicate pigeons of my “good-enough” theory.

Irish prospects have not been improved by both Sexton and O’Driscoll being in doubt through injury.

Last week I was suggesting that Brian O’Driscoll could have a crucial role to play in exposing Ben Smith’s inexperience in the centre, inexperience still manifest after the England match.

However, after Brian O’Driscoll’s performance against the Aussies – an unhappy cross between the anonymous and the invisible – I’m no longer sure he can make that much of a difference.

Be all that as it may, I still feel there is still reason for the All Blacks and all who sail in her to be cautious.

For a start, the Irish can’t play that poorly two weeks in a row. They are a proud bunch, they’ll want to redeem themselves for the Wallaby game, and they so often seem to play best when playing for pride. Meanwhile, the Irish performance last week will have made it even harder for the All Blacks to maintain proper focus.

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If the England game was any guide, the areas the Irish might like to concentrate on include the All Blacks’ kicking game and their scrum.

It is certainly fair to say that England won the scrum battle, but perhaps not by as much as expected or as subsequently reported.

By my patented, highly-scientific but secret scrum-scoring system, England came out on top of this facet by eight points to five, however for three scrums in succession in the middle of the match the All Blacks’ scrum was looking like it was made in Australia, which perhaps gave a misleading overall impression.

The All Blacks’ scrum did improve later in the game, which may have been linked to some of the personnel changes to the New Zealanders in the front row (in both teams) and/or to the fact that by the end of the game the English seemed to have run out of puff, or to a combination of both.

All of which suggests that, sadly, Woodcock’s days are distinctly numbered, while it is far from clear that Crockett is short enough for the job.

On the tighthead side, Franks is struggling to convince, to the point where it might be time to move Faumuina to the front of the queue.

Of course the fact that Ireland’s scrum was a shambles against Australia suggests they are not necessarily best-placed to take advantage of any weaknesses here.

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The short box-kicks by the All Blacks last week were also hard to fathom.

Things didn’t start well, with England getting to Aaron Smith on his first couple of kicks, so that it seemed that when combined with the memories of the 2012 match, this early pressure was enough to put Smith just slightly off his kicking game.

And even if the kicks were good, they were frequently (though not on every occasion) let down by the chase.

Thus we saw, with the All Blacks struggling to get enough possession or field position to control the game, Aaron Smith (six times) and Aaron Cruden (twice) kicking the pill straight back to England in or only just out of their own territory.

The ball was crying out to be kicked deep but it was only relatively late in the day that Dagg started carving off big slices of territory with long raking kicks.

Perhaps if Carter had stayed on things would have been different, but with him gone there was a lack of variation and a lack of tactical acumen to the All Blacks kicking game.

Other areas where there were problems included the kick-offs.

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The All Blacks have revolutionised the kick-off over the last few years, but on Saturday it was like watching a match from the bad old days.

The first five All Black kick-offs went to just beyond the 22 and straight into the hands of No. 8 Billy Vunipola, the man keenest and best-equipped to charge it straight back at them. Only late in the game was any variation attempted.

Despite these problems and despite the sterling way the English sought to bully them into submission for good portions of the game, the ability of the All Blacks to strike when they needed to, the lack of an English cutting edge, and the fact that England was running on empty some time before they crossed the finish line was enough to get them home.

Which brings us back to this weekend, and the potential banana-skin that is Ireland.

The odds are obviously in favour of the All Blacks putting the out-of-sorts Irish to the sword, but there is still the very real chance that complacency reigns on the day and the All Blacks get all wet.

Rest assured, Dublin will be a fun place to be on Sunday night if it is the latter comes to pass.

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