Sunday night in Foxborough saw not only the continuing rivalry of the ages in Tom Brady versus Peyton Manning, but also confirmation of the fact that cold weather and #18 don’t mix.
In New England’s 34-31 overtime win over the Denver Broncos, Manning threw for a season low of 150 yards and an interception.
What was billed as a shootout between both the future first ballot Hall of Famers changed when Broncos running back Knowshon Moreno demolished the Patriots’ defence for 224 yards rushing and a touchdown.
The statistics of this game will simply come down to a win/loss scenario, with Brady once again triumphing over Manning to take the pair’s record to 10-4 in favour of Brady.
The most compelling statistic about Sunday night’s game was understanding the thought process of Bill Belicheck after winning the overtime coin toss.
The long-time Patriots head coach bucked conventional wisdom and decided to give Manning and the Broncos the ball to start the overtime period – even the Pats players were confused after hearing the decision in the middle of the field.
Belicheck’s mentality was that he had enough confidence in his defense to stop Manning from driving down the field against a 20mph wind chill.
This is where coaches and analysts take a look at Manning’s numbers in the cold freezing temperatures and begin to understand Belicheck’s decision.
When the temperature is 40 degrees (Fahrenheit) or 4.5 degrees (Celsius) and below, Manning’s record is 8 wins for 13 losses.
When the temperature drops below 0 degrees Celsius, Manning’s record is an astonishing 2-8.
In his 14 seasons under the air conditioned luxury of the super dome in downtown Indianapolis, the weather never really affected Manning.
Unless he went on the road in the regular season and the playoffs. Manning has played 19 of 255 games in cold temperatures and three for the Broncos for a 1-2 record.
Those two losses were against (you guessed it) New England during the regular season last year, and against last season’s Super Bowl champions Baltimore in the playoffs.
The problem for Manning is the harsh elements can no longer be circumvented. Vicious nights like Sunday’s matchup in New England are going to be standard from this point forward.
If Manning and his Broncos are to be the best in the league and lift the Lombardi trophy this season, then he must be able to counter Mother Nature and win in the wintery conditions.
After being released by the Colts and signing in Denver, Manning has switched from a comfortable, temperature controlled dome to an outdoor stadium at Mile High.
One aspect of Manning’s game that hasn’t been fully ironed out since his return from neck surgery with the Broncos is his ability to throw spiral passes.
It’s no secret that on some plays when Manning thrusts the ball into the air that the ball tends to wobble and sometimes fall short of the desired target.
Not to mention trying to throw a perfect spiral pass with a gusty freezing wind blowing directly in his face.
This is in stark contrast to Brady, who can throw bullet-like darts consistently with a perfect spiral. This allowed him to strike three times in the third quarter on Sunday night – two on passes.
As Manning stated after the game against the Patriots, practice will make perfect in the cold weather.
“It’s always a possibility these last months of the season, and then you’re potentially in the postseason so, I think the more you can be in it, the better off you can be,” Manning said.
It seems as though the more Manning is in the cold weather, however, the more he seems to struggle.
When you compare Manning’s stats to Brady’s in freezing temperatures it is quite the contrast. Brady is 23-5 compared to Manning’s 1-6 record.
Heading into the postseason it is a stark reality that Manning will be playing outdoors – whether that be at Arrowhead Stadium, Gillette Stadium or at the big dance in New Jersey.
The one question everyone will be asking after Denver’s loss to the Patriots is that as magnificent and elegant as Manning can be, can he exert this same brilliance during the sub-zero temperatures of the NFL postseason when it really counts?
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