Australia’s chronically frustrating all-rounder has now reached a juncture that will undoubtedly shape the future of his Test career.
Of course, it has been injuries that have threatened Watson’s career previously, but it’s now his performance – or lack thereof – that is set to put a premature stop to his presence in the Test arena.
Just momentarily, set aside the 32-year-old’s immense talent and the irresistible flexibility he can offer at his fleeting best, and instead focus on the raw facts. Cricket is a numbers game after all.
Since the final days of November 2011, which draw a line on the most recent two years of his career, Watson has played 15 Tests for his country.
In that time, the bulky right-hander has scored 891 runs from 29 trips to the crease, at an average of 30.72.
The lone hundred in that period – his 176 against England at The Oval – came in a dead rubber against a side fielding two Test debutants in its five-man attack.
It also must be remembered that an average of 31.28 from 30 innings during the very same period wasn’t enough to prevent the recent disposal of Ed Cowan. Even fast bowler Mitchell Starc has averaged more in his 20 efforts with the bat in the same span.
However, Watson is afforded considerably more leniency than most Test batsmen; in part due to his often-cited potential, but particularly because of his capabilities with the ball in hand.
Yet, during that rather barren 15-game stretch with the bat, Watson has taken just eight wickets across 21 innings at 59.25 runs apiece, with a strike rate of 158.38.
To put those numbers into perspective, Michael Clarke owns a vastly superior bowling record from his 86 completed overs in the same two years.
At times, statistical references can be dismissed; their true relevance often skewed by factors out of one’s control.
For Watson, however, these numbers paint a clear picture of his struggles, with an inability to impact matches with both bat and ball reflected in a damning set of figures.
Which brings us to the upcoming Ashes Test to be played in Adelaide; a fitting venue for the crossroads at which Watson finds himself.
The ongoing, modern transformation of the famous old ground represents a shift in thinking towards a more sustainable future.
A similar shift in thinking towards Watson’s value in the side could realised there too.
Indeed, the Adelaide Oval is the very type of venue where a man of Watson’s skill-set is most required.
On a flat wicket, the former vice captain’s ability to plunder the ball to all corners will be critical at the top of the order, while his bowling capacity will be needed to alleviate the burden on his team’s frontline seamers.
Although the pitches found in Brisbane and Perth can, at times, render all-rounders somewhat insignificant, the often desolate surfaces found in South Australia’s capital place a premium on the multi-talented performers.
Thus, Watson is set to enter the stage that he’s most suited to, the stage that may determine the future of his career.
At 32 years of age, the unfulfilled talent is rapidly reaching the point where potential is ignored; selectors instead, examining his case match by match, performance by performance, as the weight of an underwhelming set numbers becomes more burdensome.
Missed amid the hoopla surrounding Australia’s 381-run victory at the Gabba was the incredibly disappointing performance completed by Watson.
Had the home side not hammered England by a colossal margin, it’s unquestionable that the right-hander’s soft dismissals in either innings would have been heavily scrutinised, given his importance at No. 3 in the order.
Of course, it would be hard to drop a batsman just a handful of innings after a thumping hundred. Yet, the continual rise of James Faulkner places Watson in a precarious situation.
If Australia’s selectors do opt to go with the left-arm all-rounder in Adelaide, Watson’s lenient ride may find itself coming to an abrupt halt.
Faulkner would undoubtedly wrestle much of the bowling duties away from his teammate, leaving the indifference of Watson’s batting exposed from the shade usually provided by his stints with the ball.
As an all-rounder, his batting average is tolerable. As a batsman, it’s not even close to being so.
Those facts leave the enigmatic veteran in a state of perplexity; Australia’s rather sudden capture of a strong position in this Ashes series oddly placing Watson at a greater threat.
Instead of his versatility elevating him above others in times of despair, his side’s recapture of form and handsome 1-0 lead only serve to highlight his frustrating mediocrity.
Now, with the Adelaide Test looming, it’s clear that Watson’s time is running out.
suprarc
Guest
it would b unfair to drop bailey after just one game. and i the 2nd innings he didn't bat too badly either..so he deserves a chance to bat on a batting beauty like adelaide pitch which might give him immense confidence for future.....my suggestion would be to replace smith with faulkner.. smith might have been successful with the bat recently, but i dont see him as a great prospect in the long run...and i dont think faulkner would bat any worse than smith...
Hammy Steambag
Guest
Yes that will happen and I will devour a sack full of figgy pudding I beleive that Bailey will make 80ish Smith to make a double tonne (laugh at me at your peril) Warner = FAIL Rogers= FAIL Watto= FAIL smith, pup and bailey to save our bacon (and figgy pudding) Then we will dance and pounce in the sweet Adelaide breeze! GO AUSSIES!!!
Clavers
Guest
Shane Watson will make history in this test match.
Clavers
Guest
Mathew Hayden was the only Australian opening batsman in the history of the game with a career average in excess of fifty.
atgm
Guest
Can doolan bowl 20 tight overs of medium fast
A punter
Guest
There have been lots of big bulky bowlers that have played for years without problems. The current rate of injuries to bowlers in the Australian side I believe is unprecedented and is a phenomenon unique to the Australian side. I suspect that the bowlers are either being misdiagnosed or mismanaged.
Paul Giles
Guest
Just about spot on with your team there Chris. The next keeper should either be Sam Whiteman or Peter Neville. The player I am least sure about on that list is surprisingly Pat Cummins. I am really worried about his career, I know he is only young and men don't fully mature until about 25 years of age but I think he has a poor bowling action which leads to his injuries, he just cannot get onto the park. With Pattinson, I just wonder if he is a little bit too big. If you look at the most durable quicks over the years, they were mainly about 6ft 2 to 6ft 5, strong but lean with nice bowling actions like Richard Hadlee, Glenn McGrath and Courtney Walsh.
Paul Giles
Guest
Excellent point. I remember the first test in England, people were bagging Watson for reviewing his L.B.W decision which just grazed the stumps but applauded Ian Bell for reviewing his which missed by a whisker. 1 cm either way and it may have been Watson with the match winning ton and not Bell. I think Watson has a major technique problem though. He now comes so heavily forward at the ball and often the ball sneaks through and hits his pad and is plumb in front or he can't take that step backwards and gets caught fending at a ball like last test.
Nudge
Guest
You missed about 30 others Simon
Simon
Roar Guru
Are you talking to me, Polly? You don't read much do you.. Just off the top of my head: Mike Hussey, Ricky Ponting, Glenn McGrath, Shane Warne, Simon Katich, Mark Taylor, Ian Healy, Ian Chappell, Michael Vaughan, Andrew Flintoff
Jack Mendel
Guest
Hi Tim, A good read, and I largely agree. Guys like Adam Voges, George Bailey and Chris Rogers must find this infuriating. Here's a guy that was a makeshift opener, has largely failed at Test level, whilst they try their hardest to churn out runs to have one last chance in their career. Clearly Bailey and Rogers have got that, at ages of 36 and 31, but let's remember that Watson really broke into this side in 2008/9, and hasn't had much success in the past three years. That's an awful lot of waste. I think the experiment is finally drawing to a close, although as an England fan, seeing Watson on the card is not something I am too upset over. If Watson cannot perform in this Test, on an Adelaide track which is supposedly a bit more spinner friendly, I think it's seriously time to consign him to the ODI and T20 side, in which he is clearly still extremely valuable. 'Potentially' he is a very good all rounder, but when he isn't scoring runs, and not bowling either, he offers next to nothing, other than 'experience'. I'd much prefer Faulkner's runs lower in the order, and having a player with a clearly defined role, as opposed to one that has batted in every position in his career, and who has been ravaged by injury, to such an extent, that he is not always a guaranteed option with the ball. Get some new blood in.
Train Without A Station
Guest
Despite all the knifers and haters out there, I imagine Watson's extended run is due to them having no decent long term first class batting options to pick. Bailey would and should be dropped before Watson. Before him Cowan went. Watson is able to go back to Shield and do well, so how much can you read into the others doing so? Anyway I digress. The bloke scored a century the test match before last... I'd say he deserves another match to score some runs.
Tony Loedi
Roar Guru
What is the big obsession with Doolan? He averages 37 in Shield cricket. He had one decent innings for Australia A and everyone reckons he's the next Ricky Ponting. Also its not like he is young, I think he's 28 year old. We have to keep batting Watson at number 3 because we don't have any other options. Hughes should come into the side but only as an opener. So who do we bat at 3, any ideas????
Luke Smyke
Roar Pro
Have faith, Watson will have a big game.
Richard
Guest
He is still only 23, He has got a fair bit of improvement in him yet with both bat and ball. Watson however is on the decline from a pretty low plateau. I reckon Faulkner is almost in front given his age and potential and the fact he performed pretty well in England. However I hope Watson fires in this game because we need his runs.
atgm
Guest
What if watson fails again.are selectors gonna give him more chances?coz i dont think he'll score much at perth.adelaide is his best oppourtunity to shine
polly
Guest
Who is number 1 ?
polly
Guest
Not being smart here mate, but I don't get to speak with past players & experts ( I assume you mean Test or at least first class players) so would you care to either drop some names or at least qualify who these people are in some fashion ?
Larney
Guest
Yes it was the last test he played before this series. Shame you didn't read between the lines.
Matt
Roar Rookie
Actually, his last test, he scored 22 and 6. It was a good game, shame you missed it.