“I didn’t doubt that I could get back into the Test team,” said Mitchell Johnson at the close of the third day at Adelaide.
For a long while, that must have been a lonely outpost of certainty in which to reside. But cricket is a great vehicle for proving the uselessness of predictions, and if Johnson has consistently been called anything, it’s unpredictable.
He did have some recent support from a prestigious quarter, with Sachin Tendulkar perhaps eyeing a career as an oracle now that his cricketing days are done.
At Tendulkar’s farewell press conference he ignored some sniggers from the press when singling out Johnson – a bowler who had never unduly troubled the Little Master – as the man to watch during the Ashes.
“The way I saw Mitchell Johnson bowl here in India, if he is part of the squad, it should be interesting,” he said.
Even a couple of weeks earlier, though, few would have predicted Johnson would be anywhere near an Ashes side.
Fewer still would have predicted he’d be its dominant player.
And we’d be down to single figures if we gathered the people predicting he’d play the central role in the first three bowling innings, all but deciding a five-Test series in the space of one and a half.
Today, with the second-best bowling figures of his career after one of the great bursts of sheer pace, the unpredictability matrix had produced exactly that.
At this point in the series, Johnson has over half the English wickets to fall – 16 out of 30.
He’s taken 4 for 61, 5 for 42, then 7 for 40. That’s at an average of 8.9 runs per wicket, and a strike rate of a wicket every 20.8 balls. He’s won one Test match and set up another.
For a long time the cliché applied to Johnson was ‘X factor’.
A phrase that was supposed to hint at inexplicable power instead became an algebraic gesture at uncertainty. He could be devastating on the field but also devastated.
I was among many who expressed my ongoing distrust. As selectorial fervour cooled he began to find himself left out of sides, a toe injury in November 2011 providing a sympathetic alibi for his initial exit.
Passed over for the mid-year tour to England, the return series wasn’t a consideration. At 32 years old he was headed to the shiny pasture of T20 tournaments and charity games.
But like a curse had been levelled by a very thorough voodoo priest, identical injuries struck down James Pattinson, Mitchell Starc, Jackson Bird and Patrick Cummins, clearing the decks of every potential rival.
Meanwhile, in a surreally bat-centric ODI series in India, Johnson was demonstrating a remodelled run-up and extreme pace on unhelpful wickets.
He was the only bowler to hold his ground in a series where all others were slaughtered. That voodoo theory isn’t entirely implausible.
Other broader predictions have been just as ruthlessly exterminated. England were pre-series favourites, featuring batsmen who ticked the side past 500 whenever they pleased last tour.
This year they’ve been demolished each time without reaching 180. All of us spoke of a dead Adelaide pitch on which bowlers would toil: Johnson had a run of 6 for 12 in 5.2 overs, including a triple-wicket maiden.
“I was really excited about coming here and bowling at Adelaide Oval,” he said after play. “We’ve come from India on very flat wickets, we knew we could get some reverse out there.” But it wasn’t really swing that was Johnson’s ally, just highly accurate pace.
The pitch couldn’t stop that tearing through batsmen, with four of his victims bowled and one lbw, nor did it stop his short balls reaching uncomfortable elevation.
His demolition of Alistair Cook on the evening of the second day was masterful.
His off-stump line had Cook poking and missing, clearly spooked by being unable to lay bat on ball, equally clearly exhausted after a long day’s mauling in the field.
One delivery bounced off the thigh pad, one bobbled up toward midwicket. Then the clean-up ball: one that straightened a little but had Cook missing by a full bat’s width, completely done for pace.
Matt Prior’s dismissal the next afternoon was just as clinical. One fast and full on leg stump, making him balance that way to knock it clear.
One short that struck Prior in the chest. One shorter that flew over his front shoulder and past his head. Then with the target rattled, one just outside off that drew a desperate attempt to make contact and an edge behind.
Graeme Swann went similarly, panic inducing the edge to slip.
The performance was all down to things we wouldn’t have predicted from Johnson: accuracy, confidence and consistency. It’s doing this two matches in a row that is most pleasing for Johnson, and most important for his side.
“To be able to back up a performance like Brisbane and do it here, it’s a really nice feeling for me,” he said with a broad smile.
“There’s been talk in the past I can have those performances where I blow a team away and then the next one not turn up. So I think that’s why today it was a bit more emotional for me, and special.”
Brad Haddin’s comments indicate that consistency might not be the worry it once was. “You could tell by his run up that they were going to come out with some serious pace,” said Haddin after that spell to Cook late on the second day.
“He just looked smooth. He was coming in to the crease and he looked like he was just guided in. I noticed up on the board he had the six fastest balls of the day after his first seven or so balls. That ball that got Cook was a cracker.”
There shouldn’t be any surprise that Johnson has surprised us. It’s what he does, one way or another.
But if that remodelled run-up means his problems with accuracy have been be ameliorated, then the next few weeks will be as thrilling as the last two.
Put simply, if Johnson can remain predictable for the rest of this series, we’re set to witness one of the all-time great Ashes performances.
Geoff Lemon is a writer and radio broadcaster. He joined The Roar as an expert columnist in 2010, writes the satirical blog Heathen Scripture, and tweets from @GeoffLemonSport. This article was first published by Wisden India, in a new-founded Ashes partnership.
Spooky
Guest
Thommo is at the Swan Valley sporting club on Wednesday night.
Praveen
Guest
He is now the second best fast bowler in the world after steyn
jameswm
Roar Guru
You cannot seriously blame Johnson for the bump. Johnson stood still and even moved his shoulder OUT of the way. I actually don't think Stokes meant it either and it's the sort of thing that happens on a busy street all the time.
jameswm
Roar Guru
I think that's right (In fairness I think MJ sledges to wind himself up and keep himself pumped, rather than any attempt to get at the batsmen). And whilst Australia are winning, sledging Johnson will have zero benefit.
jameswm
Roar Guru
And as I type that we take a wicket in the first over.
jameswm
Roar Guru
Melbourne and Sydney might be tougher, but there's a decent chance the series will be over by then.
Gr8rWeStr
Guest
Johnson already has the most wickets he has ever taken in consecutive Tests with 17, and still 4 on offer. His economy, which has been the big question, wasn't great in the 1st innings in Brisbane at 3.58 but was superb in the 2nd at 1.98 and has remained good throughout this Test. So the signs are good that the new, improved Mitch may be a reality. There were a few balls that reminded me of the old Mitch, where it didn't quite go where he seemed to be intending, including at least one wide outside off stump but he quickly returned to his fast controlled aggression. May the new, improved, consistent Mitch keep up the excellent work throughout this Ashes series and beyond. Kudos to the selectors for picking Mitch, I was one of those who thought it too big a risk, especially picking him to back up in Adelaide after a match winning performance in Brisbane. There is still a lingering distrust but its fading fast.
MervUK
Guest
Broad has one of the highest IQs in the England set up,he is sharp as a knife. I would imagine England have decided they are going to start giving Johnson some stick and try unravelling his notoriously supposed fragile mind. I suppose it's better than getting routed, and broad will be at the forefront. In fairness I think MJ sledges to wind himself up and keep himself pumped, rather than any attempt to get at the batsmen
Razza
Guest
Johnson should stick to what he is good at, BOWLING and BATTING and leave the tough guy sledging at home, it is not a good look for him, his team and cricket in general, I think it is pathetic the way it is going and that confrontational bump with the young English batsman yesterday, (not picking sides there) and the carryon with Broad walking off the paddock was childish and I think Broad was right in pointing to his own head indicating that Johnson had no brains, get over it and get on with it and I really think Johnson has been reading too much about himself and his ego has grown out of proportion. No need to sledge the Poms, just point to the score board and say nothing, his bowling speaks for him and the opposition quicks know it. "GO THE AUSSIE'S"
Bearfax
Guest
I for one didnt say anything about Johnson being dropped. But I did think that England would win this series or at beat we would draw it. The result of these two tests (and I expect Australia will wrap the second one up by lunch) quite frankly amazes me given are previous struggles, But I dont think it has anything to to with dropping Hughes or Khawaja etc. They have won these tests because a) Warner has come of age as a top class opener. b) Clarke is continung his masterful performances from earlier this year and last. c) Haddin is performing better than I've ever seen him perform before especially with the bat. d) Johnson is virtually unplayable and is routing the English side giving Australia small totals to chase e) The remainder of the bowlers are performing brilliantly in containing and intimidating the English batsmen I think these points are self evident. But Australia continues to experience a vulnerable batting line up and the selectors could have left at least Hughes there, and the result would have been the same if not even slightly better. The batting averages for these first two tests speak for themselves; Clarke: 284 runs at 71 Warner: 285 runs at 95 Haddin: 265 runs at 88.3 Watson: 79 runs at 19.8 Rogers: 91 runs at 22.8 Bailey: 90 runs at 30 Smith: 60 runs at 20 Smith we can overlooked to a degree given his age and the fact that he looked like he was heading for a big one in the second innings of the second test before they declared. Watson had one all but too short but excellent burst of bowling in the second test for a wicket against no runs. Rogers in particular and Watson and Bailey did score half centuries in Australia's first innings in the second test to help set up the formidable first innings score thanks to Clarke and Haddin. But the weakness in the batting still remains and I would be at least looking for two changes by the end of the Ashes campaign to ensure solidity in the batting, which was my main reason for pessimism for this series. That weakness still exists.
Broken-heartedToy
Guest
Well, he can't win every match for the Aussies, someone else needs to do some heavy lifting. I fancy Harris for a five for in Perth if he stays fit. I really hope he does. He and Siddle are keeping it tight and making the batsmen take risks against the others.
brian
Guest
To think if Starc or Pattinson were fit he wouldnt have got a game
SB
Guest
Fabulous stuff. The Great spinner vs. Great batsman contests are somewhat like Chess. Skillful in their own nuanced manner. But a genuine fast bowler ripping it( Not the medium pacers - Mcgrath and co. were enormously effective in their own metronomic ways. But they hardly ever thrilled.) - Just the greatest, most awesome, Ultimate sight in the game
Ian Whitchurch
Guest
Has he achieved consistency ? Not even close. Did Good Mitch turn up and destroy the English on schedule ? Yes, yes he did.
Train Without A Station
Guest
Good to see plenty of the punters on here happy to say they were wrong with their never to play again comments. I always said not to write him off, even if you don't play him due to bad form at times. Whilst it was always my view that you cannot write off a player of the ability he has shown at times, and that no other bowler of ours scares the batsmen like he does, I can't say I could have ever predicted he would perform as well as he has so far.
JGK
Roar Guru
That's a joke question right?
Bearfax
Guest
Ho Ho Guys. Figuratively speaking implying that it was long ago and no longer a 'live' cricketing experience. But enjoy your little jokes guys. One to you guys.
Clavers
Guest
If you had to pick a best Australian XI from players of the last 40 years would you pick McGrath as part of the pace attack or just go for unrelenting hostility with Lillee, Thomson and Johnson?
Clavers
Guest
I assure you Thommo is alive and well and looking in very good nick, especially for a bloke his age. If you can get him as a guest speaker for your cricket club you're in for a very good night. :)
Clavers
Guest
Six good games in a row.