Don't forget about Phillip Hughes just yet

By Tony Loedi / Roar Guru

Phil Hughes has The Roar community divided; some have written him off, while others (like myself) think he will be a dominant Test match opener.

The biggest argument against Hughes is he’s been tried, tested and failed at Test level.

Certainly the tried part is true as he’s accumulated over 20 Test caps, but let’s not forget the kid just turned 25 and is still refining his game.

He has improved his play against pace and now he must do that against the spinners.

Hughes had a horrible tour of India and England because of his weakness against spin but this was exaggerated as he was batting out of position.

Hughes is an opener and that’s where he should bat. Until he improves his game against spin he needs to start his innings against the pace men.

Let’s also remember Hughes’ Sheffield Shield batting average is in the top 25 of all time for Australian batsman, bettering the average of some of the all-time greats in the likes of Allan Border, Justin Langer and the Waugh brothers.

In the modern era only one player ahead of him on this list didn’t go on to a become a great Test match batsman – Michael Bevan.

Unfortunately for Bevan he got stuck behind some of the best batsmen we have ever produced and only managed to play 18 Tests early on in his career.

Fortunately for Hughes he won’t suffer from the same dilemma because there is a shortage of quality batsmen going around and it’s only a matter of time before he gets another crack.

So obviously he will improve, but by how much?

Let’s have a look at his Test stats so far.

In 26 matches he has a batting average of 32.65.

To get an answer to the above question I wanted to check and compare Hughes to players who had also played 20 Tests before the age of 25.

Two players stood out – below is their Test match stats before they turned 25.

Steve Waugh, in 44 matches had a batting average of 37.44.

Michael Clarke in 27 matches had an average of 42.00.

Clearly both records are better than Hughes’, although Steve Waugh was only five runs better at the same age plus he had played 18 more Tests.

Clarke has averaged 55.76 since turning 25, an improvement of over 13 runs, and Steve Waugh averaged 54.51, which is an improvement of more than 17 runs per innings.

So again, how much can Hughes improve?

Well considering his unbelievable Shield average and the fact Steve Waugh and Michael Clarke overcame a very similar start to their careers, I would say the odds are in his favour of becoming a pretty good Test match batsman.

At the very least he should be able to add 10 runs to his current average, pushing it above 42, but If he can bump it up as much as Waugh did he would be averaging something close to 50.

My guess is he will end up with an average somewhere in-between those two figures.

Clearly Hughes’ skill level hasn’t even peaked yet and as far as I’m concerned it’s only a matter of time.

Let’s not forget about Phillip Hughes just yet.

The Crowd Says:

2013-12-25T07:45:31+00:00

jammel

Guest


A few interesting observations in this article about Bevan. It's a shame Bevan didn't get more of a go - and was perceived to be worked out against the shorter stuff. I think he was a quality batsmen and would have made it at Test level. He's a better batsman than Lehmann/Blewett/Law for example I think. So he's an unlucky one in the test arena and will be remembered as such. On top of that his bowling contributions were fantastic. Just imagine having Michael Bevan at six now to stabilise an innings, and then also be a second front line spinner bowling with Lyon…! He had a fantastic strike rate!

2013-12-25T07:41:37+00:00

jammel

Guest


Hughes definitely has a test future. I wish they'd pick him at #3 instead of Watson (down the order for him). Hughes needs to be either opening or at #3. I think talk of his average being close to 50 is unrealistic. But something around 41-43 is likely in the long run - similar to Tubby, Slats, Langer, etc. So he can be a long term proposition at the top of the order. The thing about Hughes is he can make big scores - and the only players we have that can really do that are Clarke and Warner right now.

2013-12-24T22:50:14+00:00

Clavers

Guest


His 81 not out in the First Test in England showed all the toughness in the world.

AUTHOR

2013-12-24T01:18:59+00:00

Tony Loedi

Roar Guru


Still missing the point, his test average is going to improve dramatically because of this age.

2013-12-23T08:00:10+00:00

JGK

Roar Guru


Neither do his Test figures.

AUTHOR

2013-12-23T07:49:49+00:00

Tony Loedi

Roar Guru


He has the 25th best all time average in shield, the numbers don't lie.

2013-12-22T04:14:33+00:00

Gr8rWeStr

Guest


The depth of bowling attack is always diminished at Shield level, even when all have previously played Tests, usually ability to consistently bowl to plans is lacking in at least one of the bowlers, and that can be all it takes. The overall intensity of play is also, generally, diminished, only partly due to the diminished bowling attacks at Shield level. Hughes supporters continue to argue that he is the stand out performer, but this season he is 3rd in total runs scored, with two of his SA team mates 4th (Cooper) and 5th (Head), and 8th in averages, with his team mate Ferguson in 3rd place, hardly a standout.

AUTHOR

2013-12-22T02:52:13+00:00

Tony Loedi

Roar Guru


Griffo, I don't think his mental toughness is in question, he converts 50's into 100's at a great rate plus you had to be tough to score 2 centuries against the South Africans as a 21 year old

AUTHOR

2013-12-22T02:50:18+00:00

Tony Loedi

Roar Guru


Also if he opens then he can get set facing the pace bowlers so when the spinner comes on they should be easier to play.

AUTHOR

2013-12-22T02:45:00+00:00

Tony Loedi

Roar Guru


The problem with that argument is that we have some of the best fast bowlers in the world playing in Shield. Remember before this series Mitchell Johnson was our 6th best fast bowler. And Hughes destroys them. I couldn't believe that his average is in the top 25 of all time.

2013-12-21T11:22:03+00:00

Gr8rWeStr

Guest


Everything suggests to me that Hughes is closer to Bevan in technical deficiencies and mental application than Waugh or Clarke. Bevan didn't only miss out because of the competition he was shown to be susceptible to good fast short pitched bowling, not unlike Hughes. Unlike Bevan Hughes has also had a weakness against quality off spin bowling exposed. He should be required to show he has addressed those issue for Australia A against quality opposition before he should be considered again. 17% of all the Test runs Hughes has scored came in his second Test, before oppositions had figured out how to exploit his technical deficiencies. Hughes was given 10 straight Tests opening to make the spot his own, from Dec 2010 to Dec 2011, he averaged 24.05 across 4 series: against England (last 3 Tests averaging 16.16), Sri Lanka (3 Tests avg 40.40), South Africa (2 Tests avg 29.25) and New Zealand (2 Tests avg 10.25). Can he overcome his technical deficiencies? Maybe, but he shouldn't be rushed back. He was rushed into the Australian Test side after only 1.5 seasons of Shield cricket and 3 matches for Australia A/Australians where he scored 124 runs in 5 innings. Rushing him back into the Australian side for the fourth time based purely on Shield form isn't the solution. Simon Katich started Test cricket later than Hughes, spent 2.5 years out of the team remodeling his game and came back to be a vital contributor, Hughes could do worse than look to him for guidance and inspiration.

2013-12-21T10:14:42+00:00

Worlds Biggest

Guest


I would pick Hughes for the Tour of South Africa and stick with him. I'd give him 2 seasons to cement his place in the team and fix his batting against spin. He has been in and out of the team, can't be great for his confidence, pick him and persevere.

2013-12-21T03:56:53+00:00

Griffo

Guest


I've always considered Phil Hughes to be a very talented batsman but one that had some severe technical downfalls. He has definitely improved regarding his flashing at balls way outside off but he does need to improve his batting to spin. I think he probably has some issues with his mental strength and application. This is probably in part to do with the way he's been in and out and in and out etc. from the test team. I've always thought he needs to spend consecutive first class seasons developing his batting but also his mental toughness before being brought back into the test team. Also I like the current contrast in styles between Rogers and Warner and I think it works well for the team. Until Hughes is rock solid as an opener they should stick with the status quo

2013-12-21T03:48:02+00:00

Andrew

Guest


Yeah Nudge the point I'm making with regards to Hughes is that he will have to front up to those tough spinners eventually if he wants to stay in the team. With South Africa 1st, he may find form at test level before he gets to those spinners. That way he could use that form to get through or even fight hard for runs on those tours. No point bypassing them just to put him in after and revisit those problems later. If he is good enough, he will make it. If not, we know where he stands. I personally think he can do it, and on current form deserves the go.

2013-12-21T03:13:41+00:00

Nudge

Guest


I think Andrew, Ronan also made the point that how will Hughes go against Ajmal. So if Hughes came in for the Saffas and had some success then he would be facing Ajmal and a couple of other good spinners on dust bowls. He would have no chance, and then he would be dropped again. Where to for Phil Hughes if that happened? In my view he shouldn't be playing against the Saffas because of what lies ahead. If he is still scoring big runs in the shield at the start of the next Aus summer, and there's a spot, I can see that as a good time

AUTHOR

2013-12-21T01:53:44+00:00

Tony Loedi

Roar Guru


No doubt peaches, I'm sure when he gets the chance to open again we'll see him shine

2013-12-21T01:01:43+00:00

Cameron

Roar Guru


Exactly my point, why are you making excuses for a professional athlete who hasn't performed on the international stage?

AUTHOR

2013-12-21T00:45:29+00:00

Tony Loedi

Roar Guru


Umm, he isn't using that as an excuse, I am.

2013-12-21T00:43:59+00:00

Cameron

Roar Guru


Batting out position, poor guy, jeez I wish I could bat out of position for Australia let alone bat. I feel for Watson as well, what's his best position going by statistics? Mate, when you're a professional athlete and wanting to play for your country, you'll play wherever you can. If he's using the excuse of I wasn't playing in position then its no wonder he's not in the team, but I don't recall that being the reason for his downfall.

2013-12-21T00:38:22+00:00

Peaches

Guest


Hughes is a test opening batsman. That's his job. You can see it in his game. He loves to score runs and plenty of them. He hammers the first class attacks and has often been the victim for getting Watson into the side or making Watson feel comfortable in his batting position. For mine, he'll replace Rogers at some point. It's just how long Rogers survives for. He does have to work on his game but name me one player who doesn't. When in form and confident, I think only Warner is a more destructive batsman.

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