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Australian rugby: snakes and ladders

Ewen McKenzie made his name at the Reds but he needs to ditch the Queensland game plan. (AAP Image/Dave Hunt)
Expert
5th January, 2014
116
3714 Reads

Who went up the rugby ladder last year in Australian rugby and where to in 2014 for those who slid down a little? In this article I’ve compared some of those that went up and those that correspondingly slipped down.

Up: Ewen McKenzie – Down: Robbie Deans
Clearly McKenzie’s appointment as coach of the Wallabies was a step up the ladder but poor early results had many people claiming the ARU had chosen the wrong man to take over until the ‘I’m taking my bat and ball home’ attitude of Jake White quietened many of the people who had been calling for his appointment.

The improved performances from the Wallabies over the last seven matches have most of us feeling good about the direction McKenzie is taking the team in.

I was a fan of Deans being appointed as Wallaby coach and believe he was the best coach to take the team to the 2011 Rugby World Cup. However, the selections, tactics and lack of team structure in that tournament suggested his time should have been up at the conclusion of 2011.

John O’Neill made a serious blunder in reappointing Deans early and that showed throughout 2012 and 2013.

Having said that, Deans hasn’t stopped being a very good coach and I’m sure there’ll be demand for his services in Europe for next season.

Up: Bill Pulver – Down: John O’Neill
When the ARU went looking for a new CEO it would certainly have been good to find an experienced sports administrator but given the perilous state of the ARU’s finances prior to the windfall of the Lions tour, the priority was clearly a CEO who could first and foremost get costs under control.

Pulver appears to have made a solid start in this area but more work is required given the alarmingly low revenue numbers projected for 2014 and 2015.

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After he floated his thought bubble of a Super B competition complete with new rules, Pulver has turned his attention to a national third tier competition, something we desperately need, so it’s a positive step.

However, sorting out who participates and getting the competition launched in 2014 will be a massive task so he’ll have his work cut out for him this year.

While O’Neill left his ARU post in 2012 the release of the ARU’s annual report in early 2013 showed what a poor job O’Neill did when he came back for his second stint.

Up: Quade Cooper – Down: James O’Connor
Will anybody seriously claim this time last year they thought Cooper would end 2013 where he did?

Sure, there were plenty of us who expected Cooper to be a central part of McKenzie’s plans for the Wallabies if he was eventually appointed Wallabies coach but who predicted Cooper would end 2013 as vice-captain?

His form in Super Rugby was good but not outstanding and certainly didn’t give an indication his form would go into overdrive as it did for the Wallabies in the second half of last year.

Let’s hope he can maintain a consistently high level of performance this year.

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Given there have been some disciplinary issues in the past and plenty of rumours, it didn’t come as a surprise when O’Connor got into trouble again last year but to fall from the top of the ladder to off the board was a major step backwards.

He’s a talented player and if he demonstrates he can show some maturity (like his great mate Cooper has) and commitment by returning to a Super Rugby side for 2015, as now appears likely, there’ll be a spot for him in the Wallabies.

Up: Israel Folau – Down: Kurtley Beale
In February last year after watching Folau play in the Waratahs trial match against the Rebels I made the declaration on a podcast he would be a star for the Wallabies in 2013.

With the benefit of hindsight it seems an easy call to make but at the time there were plenty of people doubting whether he could make the transition quickly enough to even play for the Wallabies in 2013.

The ARU made a great decision to offer him a top up to entice him to our game. Who knows where the limit is for such a talented player?

In 2010 and 2011 Beale was challenging for the title of the world’s best fullback. Injuries and off-field issues have had a negative impact on his performances over the last two years.

Hopefully, with his move back to Sydney where he has more family support, the off-field issues will be under control and he can concentrate on playing rugby.

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However, it’s hard to see where he fits into the Wallabies starting team going forward – I can’t see him being selected ahead of Folau at fullback and I don’t think he’s a viable candidate for flyhalf.

It may be the best he can do is to secure a bench spot but even to get there he’s going to have to improve his defence.

Up: Matt Toomua – Down: Christian Lealiiafano
Toomua had a fantastic Super Rugby season and was the form flyhalf when the Wallaby squad to play the Lions was chosen.

He was very unlucky not to be selected for that series but when Ewen McKenzie chose his first team to face the All Blacks, Toomua was the preferred choice at flyhalf.

I don’t agree with the claim Toomua only got those starts to shield Quade Cooper – he deserved the first crack under McKenzie based on form.

He played reasonably well in those two matches but didn’t really offer the spark McKenzie was looking for and was relegated to a bench role with Cooper given another opportunity.

He made the most of his subsequent move to number 12 after the unfortunate injury to Lealiifano and his combination with Cooper was outstanding, something I expect will continue this year.

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It may seem strange I’ve selected Lelaiifano as moving down this year – after all he made his Wallabies debut and performed quite well throughout the year in both Super Rugby and internationals. However, he started the Wallabies season as Robbie Dean’s first choice at number 12 and McKenzie maintained that selection until an injury gave Toomua a chance.

Now it’s hard to see Lealiifano dislodging Toomua unless there is an injury.

His goal kicking is certainly a real asset and if there are no injuries he’ll be one of the first reserves named for the Wallabies this year.

He’ll be a regular Wallaby for years to come so rather than down, I’ll say he moved a little sideways in the second half of last year.

Up: Scott Fardy – Down: Scott Higginbotham
Fardy was the ‘find’ of the season for the Wallabies, although you only had to watch him playing for the Brumbies to know he’d probably cope very well with Test rugby.

He added some real starch to the Wallabies backrow and showed some great attacking skills.

All selections should be based on form but I can’t see anyone taking the number six position from Fardy this year.

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I also think it’s ludicrous to move him from the position he played so well in 2013 to accommodate another player – the Wallabies don’t have any other player in that position who is so good they could force Fardy to be moved.

Higginbotham had probably his best Super Rugby season last year and was a certainty to fill the number six position for the Lions series until he was injured playing for the Rebels.

His fall down the ladder was therefore based purely on an injury but with Fardy playing so well, Higginbotham will need to play very well in Super Rugby to jump ahead of Fardy.

Instead, I expect he’ll be one of the leading candidates to play number eight for the Wallabies this year and will jump back up the ladder quickly.

Up: Stephen Moore – Down: Tatafu Polota-Nau
Moore seems to be getting better and better with age. He’s been the best hooker in Australia for many years and it would be a real toss of the coin between he and Bismarck du Plessis as to who’s the best in the world.

The gap between Moore and other contenders for the Wallabies starting position has widened considerably this year.

Unfortunately, Polota-Nau was plagued with injuries last year, which is becoming an all-too regular issue. The inability to stay on the park means we don’t know whether he’s still an impact player, although it’s been some time since we really saw any impact from him on-field anyway.

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He’d still be my choice as backup to Moore but that is dependent on him staying fit for an extended period to re-build his confidence.

The question is whether we’ve seen the best of him and he may be on the decline? I hope not.

Up: Michael Hooper – Down: David Pocock
What a fantastic season last year from Hooper. He played very well in 2012 and then grabbed the opportunity presented in 2013 when Pocock suffered his season ending injury.

His attack and support play are both exceptional but he could improve his tackling.

When he uses his speed to get into rucks early he is a significant threat to the opposition, however his lack of size is a negative up against physical, mobile packs like the All Blacks and Springboks.

He deserved all the accolades and awards he received last year and will be a long term Wallaby.

Pocock has been such a key player for the Wallabies over the last few years and his absence last year could really have hurt the Brumbies but for the return of an even better player, George Smith.

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His absence for the Wallabies gave Hooper a chance and it will be up to Pocock to grab the number seven spot back, which will be no easy task as I expect Hooper will improve again this year.

However, I believe it won’t take Pocock long to get back to his previous form and if he does that, he offers the Wallabies the added physicality they’ll need to compete with the All Blacks and Springboks, so I expect Pocock will climb back up the ladder pretty quickly.

Up: Ben Mowen – Down: James Horwill
Mowen has been a consistent performer since he moved to the Brumbies and was unlucky not to play for the Wallabies in 2012.

His debut this year was well deserved, although I doubt he would have started in the Lions series ahead of Scott Higginbotham or Wycliff Palu. He grabbed the opportunity presented to him and ran with it very well.

He performed well in the first two Tests against the Lions and with Higginbotham and Palu unavailable, he was the best option for the Wallabies at number eight throughout 2013.

His rise to the captaincy of the Wallabies was a great reward for his efforts and I don’t think anyone could complain about his captaincy, despite the rumours that emerged regarding player complaints after the match against England.

The question is whether he’ll be able to win a starting spot for the Wallabies this year against Scott Fardy, Higginbotham or Palu. He will really have to step up during Super Rugby this year and, given his work ethic, you wouldn’t say he can’t do just that.

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Over the last couple of years Horwill has appeared to be lacking some of the physicality we’d come to expect from him. Whether that was due to the injuries that have plagued him or whether he felt the need to be more restrained as captain, I’m not sure.

Ewen McKenzie knew he needed Horwill to regain some of that physicality and decided to relieve him of the captaincy to allow Horwill to focus on his own game.

If you watch the matches on the end of year tour closely you’ll see that Horwill led the way for the Wallabies forwards with improved physicality – only Fardy came close to matching him, so McKenzie’s move appears to have worked.

Horwill is clearly the number one lock in Australia and will be one of the first players picked again this year. The question is whether McKenzie will make him captain again.

The only other candidate who is one of the guaranteed starters is Will Genia and I think McKenzie will be even more reluctant to distract him from his playmaker role.

David Pocock would be another strong candidate if he can win the starting spot from Michael Hooper.

I’ve already said I don’t think Ben Mowen will be a starter so Horwill could climb straight back up the ladder and resume the captaincy.

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