Is Tour Down Under history about to repeat itself?

Eight years ago, Simon Gerrans won his first Tour Down Under title. And he won it in emphatic fashion, claiming the Ochre Leader’s jersey on the first stage and holding onto it for the entire race.

The stage he won to open the 2006 edition was in Angaston.

The second stage in 2006 took the riders from Stirling to Hahndorf through a number of Adelaide Hills towns including Woodside, Mylor, Oakbank and Balhannah.

Today the stage ends in Stirling and goes through Woodside, Mylor, Oakbank and Balhannah.

Gerrans didn’t win the second stage in 2006, but he obviously held on to the race lead.

There are some eerie similarities between yesterday’s stage and the events of 2006, but the big question is, what will Gerrans and Orica-GreenEDGE do?

Will he let someone else assume the race lead or insist that, as in 2006, his team aim to defend the jersey for the whole race?

I’m told OGE want to keep the jersey because realistically you’re only talking about four more stages. Historically, the last day isn’t one where there’s a change in the race lead.

But the problem I see is how do you control a list of General Classification contenders that currently number 70?

If some of the other teams work together then it will mean a very busy day for Orica-GreenEDGE. And that will use a lot of energy.

Regardless it could take a while before the composition of the day’s escape is finalised.

Of course, you’d be taking a chance betting against Simon Gerrans not being in Ochre later today. His ride yesterday was just amazing.

To beat Andre Greipel at any time is a feat. To beat him when he’s had the full lead-out, train dropping him at the finish, is jaw dropping.

Gerrans played it perfectly, sitting on Greipel’s wheel before using the slipstream to roll past him with enough time to celebrate as he crossed the line.

It seems that when “Gerro” decides he can win a race, he just does.

Greipel, meanwhile, put his defeat down to timing and gearing.

But that’s twice in two races that Greipel hasn’t been able to finish off his train’s good work, and that’s unusual. Right now, the absence of Greg Henderson looks telling.

In terms of GC contenders there weren’t many casualties from stage one, though two that spring to mind are Caleb Ewan and Jack Bobridge.

Ewan struggled on Menglers Hill while Bobridge, aside from working for team leader Robert Gesink, may still be finding his feet after a horrible 2013 season.

So Ewan is now 2:32 behind Gerrans on GC while Bobridge is more than four minutes down.

This may work well for them today though.

Last year Tom Jelte-Slagter won the small bunch drag into Stirling on a course that, like tomorrow’s, will suit the punchy all-rounder, who has enough legs to sprint.

As a South Australian boy, Bobridge knows the roads really well but may be restricted by team orders.

Ewan, on the other hand, is in a team (UniSA) that champions aggression and panache, qualities he has in spades. It’s also won here before with Will Clarke in 2012.

If it was just a case of bad legs yesterday, Caleb Ewan could find himself in a very good place come the middle of this afternoon.