After suffering their worst season on the field since the turn of the millennium, St Kilda could be headed for a return to a place it has historically dominated – the bottom of the ladder.
Twelve months after just missing out on the finals, the Saints crashed to 16th on the AFL ladder and won only five matches.
Coach Scott Watters was deemed safe as the season immediately concluded, then surprisingly sacked three months ago as the board finally decided they’d had enough of him.
Now, the Saints will have to start rebuilding again under a second coach in three years, after Watters had succeeded Ross Lyon who announced a shock departure to Fremantle at the end of 2011.
The man to take the Saints into the next phase is Alan Richardson, and there is no doubt that he will have it tough trying to turn around the fortunes of the AFL’s least successful Victorian club in the next few years.
Let’s now take a look at the Saints’ chances for season 2014.
St Kilda
Last season: 16th
Most recent premiership: 1966
Notable arrivals: Shane Savage (Hawthorn), Josh Bruce (GWS Giants), Billy Longer (Brisbane Lions), Luke Delaney (North Melbourne)
Notable departures: Nick dal Santo (North Melbourne), Ben McEvoy (Hawthorn), Ahmed Saad (delisted), Justin Koschitzke, Jason Blake, Stephen Milne (retired)
Leading goalkicker: Nick Riewoldt (50)
All-Australians: None
Best-and-fairest: Jack Steven
After coming agonisingly close of what would have been their second flag in their long existence, the reality facing the Saints this season is that they are facing a long rebuilding period and it could take years before they return to premiership contention.
Influential captain Nick Riewoldt will turn 32 at the end of this season and rather than attempt to lead his beloved Saints to that elusive second flag, he may have to ponder the thought of retirement within the next few years.
Gone from the club are Nick dal Santo, who made a high-profile move to North Melbourne during the off-season, and Ben McEvoy, who has headed slightly north to 2013 premiers Hawthorn.
Club stalwarts Jason Blake, Justin Koschitzke and Stephen Milne have all retired, while Ahmed Saad was delisted.
The Saints’ arrivals are headed by Shane Savage – who played in Hawthorn’s losing grand final team of 2012 but didn’t feature in their victorious squad last year – Josh Bruce, Billy Longer and Luke Delaney.
Savage arrives at the Saints in search of more opportunities, having only managed 56 games at the Hawks since his debut in 2009. He will hope to fill the void that has been left by the departure of dal Santo in the midfield.
Longer returns home to Victoria after only nine games at the Brisbane Lions, and should prove to be the perfect replacement for Blake at the ruck.
But after the loss of so much experience – namely Justin Koschitzke and Stephen Milne, two men who were instrumental in helping the Saints climb the ladder at the start of the millennium – things are looking bleak for the side this year.
Matches to watch in 2014
1. St Kilda versus Melbourne, Round 1
Given the recent state of these two clubs, it’s fair to say that this first round showdown could be an early season battle for the 2014 wooden spoon.
The Saints are coming off their worst season in over a decade, indirectly resulting in the sacking of Scott Watters, but this is nothing compared to what their opponents, Melbourne, have endured over the past seven years.
The Dees have endured seven years in AFL hell during which they sacked two untried coaches, lost a club legend and were investigated for tanking during the 2009 season.
Both teams will enter the new season armed with new coaches – the Dees with Paul Roos – as they try to put a difficult 2013 behind them.
The Saints have not lost against Melbourne since 2006 and will look to preserve that record in what will be their only meeting this year.
2. St Kilda versus Brisbane Lions, ANZAC Day
The AFL launched its foray into New Zealand when St Kilda and the Sydney Swans contested the first match to be played for premiership points outside of Australia on ANZAC Day last year.
On the back of that success, the Wellington experiment has been developed into a permanent fixture, to immediately follow the traditional match between Collingwood and Essendon.
The Saints will retain the hosting rights to that fixture, though this year their opponents will be the Brisbane Lions, another side equipped with a new coach in Justin Leppitsch.
The pair have fought out numerous battles in the past, and if that is anything to go by this year’s New Zealand ANZAC Day fixture will not disappoint, despite the predicted struggles of both teams this coming season.
3. St Kilda versus Carlton, Round 8
Another fixture that the Saints will retain this season is the Monday after Mother’s Day match against Carlton.
Unlike in the past when this match has received free-to-air exposure by Channel Seven, those who cannot afford Foxtel will have to settle for radio coverage.
The Saints won last year’s fixture by nine points to equal the ledger at two wins apiece since the fixture was established in 2010, though in 2009 the Saints thrashed Collingwood by 88 points before the opponents were changed to Carlton the following year.
With the Saints having won the last two matches and Carlton the two before that, you’d think that the Saints would be due for a loss this year. The fans will certainly hope that this is not the case.
4. St Kilda versus North Melbourne, Round 17
It’ll be smack bang in the middle of winter when the Saints and Roos go head-to-head in the middle of the season, but this will be a great opportunity for Saints fans to release their feelings and anger towards Nick dal Santo, a club favourite who made the high-profile move to Arden Street during the off-season.
That won’t be the only challenge of their supporters as this match will be held down at Blundstone Arena in Hobart as part of the Roos’ foray into the Tasmanian capital – not in Melbourne, where the presence of Saints fans would be larger.
Additionally, the Saints will be out for redemption after losing their only meeting last season by 68 points. It was that loss that saw the end of them as a serious premiership threat.
But the question here will be whether the Saints can move on without dal Santo, or whether he will come back to haunt his old club and further expose the Saints’ expected struggles this season.
Verdict
A lot of experience has left the club and it’s hard to see the team doing well in year one under Alan Richardson.
The new coach has said that top draft picks will take priority over a finals berth this year, as the Saints set about rebuilding the damage that has been left behind by Scott Watters.
It’s therefore set to be a long season for Saints supporters, most of whom may not remember the euphoria that was 1966, the year of their solitary flag.
Taking the loss of experience and their poor 2013 into account, it’s hard to see the Saints winning more than five games this year, but I do expect them to remain competitive in several matches.
Prediction
18th
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