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Are these three-year-olds better than last year’s?

All Too Hard, another horse retired early. (AAP: Julian Smith)
Expert
16th February, 2014
19

Could this current batch of Australian three-year-olds be as good as the season before – a crop that was highlighted by All Too Hard, Pierro and It’s A Dundeel?

It may seem a crazy question to pose because the batch of 2012/2013 three-year-olds were rated the best in at least a decade. But I think it’s possible.

If the best five three-year-olds last season were All Too Hard, Pierro, It’s A Dundeel, Epaulette and Fiveandahalfstar how much better can they possibly rate than this year’s three-year-old batch that is led by Zoustar, Guelph, Polanski, Long John and Shamus Award?

Last season, a layer of depth was added by Sacred Falls, Super Cool, Your Song, and Snitzerland. This season it is added by Bull Point, Eurozone, Hucklebuck, and El Roca.

Last season, the three-year-olds All Too Hard and Pierro were second and third in the Cox Plate (2040m, Group 1, weight-for-age). This season the Cox Plate was won by the three-year-old Shamus Award.

Last season’s Caulfield Guineas (1600m, Group 1, three-year-olds) winner All Too Hard won the Orr (1400m, Group 1, weight-for-age), Futurity (1400m, Group 1, weight-for-age) and All Aged (1400m, Group 1, weight-for-age) in the Australian autumn.

This season’s Caulfield Guineas winner Long John ran ninth in the Cox Plate but won the UAE 2000 Guineas (1600m, Group 3, three-year-olds) by five lengths in Dubai last week.

Last season’s Victoria Derby winner Fiveandahalfstar won the BMW (2400m, Group 1, weight-for-age) in the autumn and the Derby runner-up Super Cool won the Australian Cup (2000m, Group 1, weight-for-age).

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This season’s Victoria Derby winner Polanski hasn’t been seen at the races since but the Derby form looks as good as the previous season’s. Already, the third place-getter Thunder Fantasy has won the Autumn Stakes (1400m, Group 2, three-year-olds) convincingly and fourth place-getter Criterion was a fantastic fourth upon resumption in Saturday’s CS Hayes (1400m, Group 3, three-year-olds).

There may not be a Triple Crown winning three-year-old among this year’s three-year-olds like there was with It’s A Dundeel last year but that may be because there is more depth in the staying three-year-olds this season.

After all when It’s A Dundeel romped in the Triple Crown (and romped is definitely the right word) he didn’t have to beat Fiveandahalfstar or Super Cool once.

Instead he was met by Proisir in the Randwick Guineas (1600m, Group 1, three-year-olds), eventual Doncaster winner Sacred Falls (2000m, Group 1, three-year-olds) in the Rosehill Guineas and Hong Kong-export Philippi in the Australian Derby (2400m, Group 1, three-year-olds).

In actual fact, despite being one of the best horses (in my opinion the best horse) in Australia, It’s A Dundeel has never beaten Super Cool or Fiveandahalfstar. Super Cool has a 5-0 winning record against It’s A Dundeel and remarkably It’s A Dundeel has been favoured to beat Super Cool each time.

Undoubtedly the best of last season’s three-year-old fillies – Dear Demi, Zydeco, Royal Descent, Norzita, Snitzerland, Samaready (who missed almost all of her three-year-old year) and Commanding Jewel – are, by comparison, no match for this year’s best filly Guelph.

Four-year-olds Snitzerland, Shamexpress, and Samaready are very good sprinters. In fact, Snitzerland was incredibly quick and strong when winning Saturday’s Black Caviar Lightning (1000, Group 1, weight-for-age) from the fast-finishing Shamexpress and Samaready but I think they will meet their match when take on star three-year-old Zoustar this autumn.

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Last season, three-year-old Pierro won the Canterbury (1300m, Group 1, weight-for-age) and Ryder (1500m, Group 1, weight-for-age). But it could well be three-year-olds winning those races this season as well.

Zoustar is the horse to beat in the Canterbury and could El Roca be the George Ryder winner?

El Roca is one of the reasons I’ve engaged in this debate about the respective three-year-old crops today. He’s the X-Factor in this current group of three-year-olds. A New Zealander like It’s A Dundeel, El Roca is on the verge of ripping the autumn carnival apart just like It’s A Dundeel did last season.

Here’s a big call, but I believe it, I think El Roca looks better than the three-year-old version of Pierro. Pierro was a good three-year-old. He was second in the Caulfield Guineas and third in the Cox Plate.

In the autumn, he fought hard to win the Hobartville (1400m, Group 2, three-year-olds) by a nose against eventual Group 1 handicap winner Rebel Dane, beat More Joyous comfortably in the Canterbury and again had to fight hard to narrowly win the Ryder. In the Doncaster (1600m, Group 1, handicap), with 56 kilograms, he was second to Sacred Falls.

It’s a good CV but it isn’t great. You have to remember when Pierro entered his three-year-old campaign, he had already won the two-year-old Triple Crown. Although sometimes close to, he would never actually surpass the heights he reached as a juvenile at three.

El Roca, on the other hand, enters this autumn as a shooting star. His performance, when a luckless fifth in the Caulfield Guineas last spring, was outstanding. Having used petrol to race on the speed, he was pocketed on the home turn and dragged back through the field.

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When he finally got out at the 200m he was in tenth position with no momentum up. He was entitled to plod home. Instead, in that final furlong, he picked himself up and careered through the finish line to take fifth.

This was a Caulfield Guineas that produced a Cox Plate winner and UAE Guineas winner, and yet it is easy to argue that the best run was in fact the run of El Roca.

After all, he made Prince Harada (the runner-up in Saturday’s CS Hayes) in sixth and Charlie Boy in seventh look slow.

Resuming on Saturday in the Eskimo Prince (1200m, Group 3, three-year-olds), El Roca met Dissident, the horse that finished fourth in the Caulfield Guineas, and he killed him.

Now, it’s very possible that Dissident is no longer the same horse he once was. After producing a herculean effort to finish second in the Golden Rose (1400m, Group 1, three-year-olds) behind Zoustar, Dissident has not returned to the same level since. In fact, he hasn’t even got close.

I’m pretty confident that as good as El Roca was on Saturday, Dissident was equally as disappointing. So if I think El Roca has arrived as a superstar in Australian racing, what does that mean for Dissident?

On Saturday at Rosehill, El Roca showed good speed to race just behind the leaders. Before the home turn, he used a good change of gear to move up towards the lead. At that moment, on slow ground, he had Dissident, who raced in El Roca’s slipstream, off the bit.

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In the straight when El Roca accelerated to the lead, Dissident was no match. In the last 100m, when the race was over, El Roca held Dissident. Actually in the last 50m, Dissident began to concede more ground to a hard-held El Roca. That’s almost damning.

El Roca was explosive and dominant. And Dissident was sluggish and tired. I hope Peter Moody has plenty left to draw upon with Dissident because he wasn’t in El Roca’s class on Saturday. The track was wet and the conditions testing, so perhaps Dissident has an excuse. He needs one though.

Who knows how good El Roca is. I think he’ll make weight-for-age grade without any issue but it’s safe to say that Dissident isn’t there at the moment.

There is some uncertainty in the path El Roca should take this autumn. In my opinion, he looks like a miler from the absolute highest echelon. The mile is a great distance because it asks great questions of a horse’s speed and stamina.

El Roca has loads of both. He has a turn of foot, he can sustain his top speed over at least two furlongs and he has the stamina to a run a hard mile. I’d like to see him in a George Ryder and I wouldn’t mind having a few dollars on him to win the Doncaster.

I think El Roca was the best three-year-old to step out on Saturday. But the next best were all found in Melbourne.

The CS Hayes was won by Hucklebuck impressively after he enjoyed the dream run in transit. He was produced at the top of the straight and unwound powerfully to arrest the lead from a strong Prince Harada, who franked what I thought was a very good first-up showing at Caulfield and was good racing on top of the speed for the first time. In third was The Quarterback.

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Going into Saturday, one of the most interesting facets of the Hayes was that it would reveal plenty about Hucklebuck and The Quarterback who were facing what I thought was the toughest tests of their respective careers to date.

Undoubtedly, despite getting all the favours, Hucklebuck shone. He will be a big player in the Australian Guineas (Group 1, three-year-olds) next month. The Quarterback on the other hand maxed out at 1400m. In the last 100m, despite getting a drag into the race on Hucklebuck’s tail, he could only hold down third. He was losing ground at the death.

The Quarterback looks like he will struggle to fire at a mile. Behind him were two very strong runs. Criterion carried 57.5kgs which was 2kgs more than Hucklebuck and The Quarterback, and 3.5kgs more than Prince Harada, yet he was steaming home into fourth.

He will appreciate the mile and set weights of the Guineas and looks on track for the Rosehill Guineas and Australian Derby.

In fifth came a very interesting run from Teronado. He stormed home and will also be a chance in the Australian Guineas. I’ve been a fan of Teronado for a few months now because I was taken with the way he was finishing off his races in Brisbane in the spring.

Actually, I backed him first-up in Sydney, when he met Pirandello (fourth behind El Roca on Saturday) and Miss Finland’s son Woodbine. And Teronado was average. He loomed up to figure and then just petered out.

He was three lengths behind Pirandello at the wire and supremely disappointing.

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Teronado was also beaten three lengths by Hucklebuck on Saturday. Interestingly Pirandello was four lengths inferior to El Roca on Saturday.

Does that mean Hucklebuck is four lengths inferior to El Roca as well? It’s possible and the formline is there to be drawn but I wouldn’t think so. That formline loses serious credibility when you factor in Teronado was miles better in Melbourne than what he was in Sydney. Still, it’s interesting nonetheless.

Off his CS Hayes win Hucklebuck has been installed Australian Guineas favourite but I think that’s premature and perhaps just a little bit undeserved.

The concern with Hucklebuck is the mile distance. He was beaten narrowly in the Carbine Club (1600m, Group 3, three-year-olds) on Derby Day at Flemington when a short favourite after coming off an impressive victory over 1400m and seemingly having the race in his keeping at the 200m mark.

He didn’t stay the distance on that occasion and he won’t be winning such a strong Guineas in two weeks if a lack of stamina means he can’t offer a killer blow at the finish. Hucklebuck may have strengthened in the summer, we’ll soon know, but he probably needed to if he is to win a Group 1 mile.

Perhaps there’s more chance of a Solicit victory in the Guineas. This filly was a fantastic third in the Crown Oaks (2500m, Group 1, three-year-olds fillies) last November after setting a strong tempo and she was equally impressive first-up in Saturday’s Vanity (1400m, Group 3, three-year-old fillies) after running her opponents off their feet.

She’ll go forward in the Australian Guineas, will be strong at the mile and if there’s any hint of leader bias, as sometimes can be the case at Flemington, she’ll be a big winning chance. After all, she has outstanding form at the track and has produced at Group 1 level previously.

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For mine, in what shapes as a vintage Australian Guineas (for what it’s worth, a renewal that will be lengths stronger than last year’s), it is Group 1 form that I want to be siding with.

So that means the likes of Bull Point, who will be running in the Futurity (1400m, Group 1, weight-for-age) on Saturday, Eurozone, Polanski (who will start in the Guineas first-up at this stage), Shamus Award, and Solicit hold sway personally.

The autumn is always the time of year for three-year-olds to stand up but this year there’s probably more excitement with the three-year-olds than there is usually.

Despite what I’ve written here, perhaps you’ll still think this crop of three-year-olds are not yet worthy of being compared with last year’s cracking group.

One thing’s for sure – especially remembering there’s a strong renewal of the Blue Diamond (1200m, Group 1, two-year-olds) coming up on Saturday – the breeding industry is producing outstanding racehorses.

I say long may it continue because good horses make good racing. If only those breeders wouldn’t take our good horses away so soon!

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