Since 2009 the AFL competition has seen a bottom five team rise to make the finals the following year. Last year it was Port, before that is was Adelaide, West Coast, and Sydney going back to 2009 bottom fives.
Since the top eight began in 1994, only twice has a team from the bottom five missed finals the following year – in 2008 and 2007 both Essendon and Richmond respectively respectively rose highest from the bottom five to only just miss by coming ninth.
Collingwood went from 15th in 2005 to sixth in 2006. In 2004 Adelaide went from 12th to minor premiers.
Indeed grand finalist have come from the bottom five on a few occasions as well. 1995, 1996, 1999 and 2006 all saw teams have turnarounds that very few would have seen.
1997 throwing up the premiers in Adelaide who in 1996 finished 12th, while in 2006 Port went from 12th to getting the hiding of their lives in the grand final the next year thanks to the premiership-starved Cats.
So who from last year’s bottom five could possibly bolt this season? Gold Coast, Western Bulldogs, St Kilda, Melbourne and the Giants made up the lower rungs of the ladder in 2013.
Out of those five we have three with new coaches if you count Leon Cameron going it alone as new and Paul Roos as a new coach.
The obvious choice, and one that a few pundits are predicting is the Suns. Over the past three years teams have pencilled in wins against the Suns, but in 2013 a win over North Melbourne sounded the start of what a lot of footy fans from opposing clubs fear – a period of dominance from the new franchises.
Season number four for the Suns starts with games against the Tigers, Dockers, Lions and Hawks. The Dees, Giants, Roos and Saints then round out their first eight games.
Typically the first eight rounds are a very good indicator of who will be there come September. The Suns have four “should win” games, two “could wins” and two “probably won’t win” matches.
Optimistic fans could dream of a 6-2 start. If that happens then the Suns could be out in September for the first time in their short history.
With players of the quality of Ablett, Harbrow, Swallow, Bennell, Prestia, McKenzie, O’Meara, Dixon, Zac Smith, Matera, Bock, Nicholls, Stanley, and Broughton as well as and up and comers like Jesse Lonnergan, Jack Martin and Kade Kolodjashnij there’s no reason they won’t start pressing top eight teams on a regular basis.
Cam Rose wrote recently on this web site that the smokeless smoky everyone is picking are the Roos. Looking back at history should everyone be watching out for the Suns to bolt in 2014?
Who’s in your ultimate team? Pick the best team and compete with other fans for daily prizes on Draftstars. For the best odds on the game try out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Think. Is this a bet you really want to place? Set a deposit limit.
Round 5 of the AFL provided plenty of action, from big scorelines to upset wins and pressure starting to build on some clubs and coaches already.
Geelong has been crafty and creative in its list management and has quietly assembled a very exciting young group of midfielders and half-forwards.
Brisbane co-captain Lachie Neale will be looking to lead his team to a victory against Melbourne in what will be his 250th AFL game.
It’s high stakes with five teams having lost their first three games of season 2024, and in desperate need of a win.
It could be a weekend for contenders to emerge, teams to hopefully break droughts, o and overall footy to have a party.
We’ve already seen what Jack Ginnivan is capable of at Collingwood with his ability to grasp big moments - how will he go against his former teammates?
