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Moment of Change, fantastic in winning Saturday’s Futurity Stakes (1400m, Group 1, weight-for-age), can’t read and probably doesn’t care. But I have to apologise to the three-time Group 1 winner.
I was incredibly dismissive of his victory in the Orr (1400m, Group 1, weight-for-age) three Saturdays ago when he held off a flying Eurozone.
The following Monday, I wrote, “Moment Of Change was aimed at this race and got a well-deserved top-level victory but I can’t imagine him being a force in any of the rich Group 1s this autumn…
“Maybe Moment of Change, who set a relatively solid pace, ran Shamus Award off his feet. And that’s a little damning – after all, Moment of Change has his limits and Shamus Award is a Cox Plate winner.”
I’m sorry Moment of Change, but I haven’t done you any justice there. You are a fine exponent of the seven-furlong caper.
You may be limited in the sense that 1400m is really the only distance (along with perhaps the Flemington 1200m) where we see your best, but there are few horses in the country who would be able to knock you over at 1400m, especially at Caulfield.
And let’s get one thing straight – the game of Shamus Award, the reigning Cox Plate (2040m, Group 1, weight-for-age) winner, was cracked by Moment of Change in the Orr.
Shamus Award laid in down the straight because that’s what he does under immense pressure – he’s been doing it since his debut.
In the Orr, Moment of Change ran Shamus Award off his feet. The Cox Plate winner was comprehensively dismantled.
And in Saturday’s Futurity, another three-year-old, Bull Point, who was flat in fourth, has been sent home packing to Sydney – his Australian Guineas (1600m, Group 1, three-year-olds) tilt finished – having also had his spirit broken by Moment of Change on Saturday.
Both horses had the task of chasing Moment of Change in the final three furlongs of 1400m Group 1s at Caulfield, and both horses were hugely disappointing.
But this says more about Moment of Change than Shamus Award or Bull Point, who I’m sure are still Group 1 class. Moment of Change is a modern-day Regal Roller. He is a standout performer around the Caulfield 1400m with a record of four wins from four starts at the track and distance.
In the early 2000s, Regal Roller won seven of his first eight starts around the Caulfield 1400m. He knocked over the likes of Elvstroem, Makybe Diva and Alinghi at the track and distance by utilising a bit of extra race fitness and expertise.
Like Regal Roller, Moment of Change makes the Caulfield 1400m a real staying test. Luke Nolen sets a fast pace throughout.
On Saturday, Bull Point had to break 11.50s for each furlong from the 1000m mark to the 200m just to stay in touch. By the end of the race, when he needed to deliver another quick section to win, he was completely burnt out.
Shamus Award faced a similar prospect when racing in Moment of Change’s slipstream in the Orr, and he too laboured in the straight.
It’s no surprise that the most eye-catching runs in both Moment of Change’s autumn Group 1s have come from the horse that sat three-horses back on the inside – Eurozone in the Orr and Sertorius in the Futurity.
They didn’t have to chase Moment of Change around the home bend and could therefore peel out wide on the course and unwind off a hot tempo in the straight, effectively as the fresh horse on the scene.
Take nothing away from Eurozone, who will be hard to toss in the Australian Guineas next weekend, or Sertorius, who is in for a huge preparation that should deliver the improving gelding his maiden Group 1.
Sertorius did blow the start, making his run even better. Both horses were fantastic in defeat.
I can’t wait to see Sertorius win his Group 1. I’ve followed this horse from an Ararat victory all the way to a Group 1 weight-for-age placing.
The BMW (2400m, Group 1, weight-for-age) has been earmarked as his main aim this autumn and he’ll be winning it if he continues to turn in performances like he did on Saturday.
Moment of Change will run in the Newmarket Handicap (1200m, Group 1) in a fortnight. He won’t be able to break hearts down the Flemington ‘straight six’ but he’ll run his usual honest race.
The Polanski story is so sad. Polanski was tailed off on Saturday behind Moment of Change. The soft-tissue injuries he succumbed to thankfully won’t claim his life but they have almost-certainly taken his career.
It’s a crying shame because he could’ve been anything.
Polanski is another I’ve followed for a long time – practically from his debut. To be at Flemington to see him run away with the Victoria Derby (2500m, Group 1, three-year-olds) last spring was a highlight.
Not only was Polanski so dominant but trainer Robbie Laing – who, on a wintery Saturday afternoon, made those prepared to listen believe in Polanski – so right. He was a Derby horse alright!
Before Polanski, the last horse to win a Victory Derby with such impression was Efficient in 2006.
Twelve months later, Efficient stormed down the centre of the Flemington straight to win the Melbourne Cup (3200m, Group 1, handicap) – becoming the only horse, other than Phar Lap in 1929-1930, to do the Victoria Derby/Melbourne Cup-in-consecutive-seasons double.
The Polanski situation is just so disappointing.
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