Souths, Melbourne, Roosters, Manly, Newcastle, Cronulla, Penrith and the Broncos. These are eight teams that I think are likely to make the top eight in 2014.
But considering how many teams win at least three games by two points or less, plus the occasional golden point game, picking the exact point in the eight is a little difficult.
Last season the difference between coming fifth (Cronulla) and 10th (Panthers) was six points (three games), plus some for and against.
Coming fifth at the end of a season would be considered a pass by almost all clubs.
Last season the difference between coming sixth (Bulldogs) and 13th (Raiders) was the same six points plus some for and against. Coming sixth not a great season but I would suggest that maybe all of the teams in this year’s comp would take it now if you offered them sixth without an injury.
The key to being a top four team is simple. Your key players in 1, 6, 7, 9 need to be in form and 80% you’re your cap needs to be on the field on any given weekend.
This is the reason IMO that paying one million dollars for one player is so risky.
This weekend is critical with last year’s top four playing each other. The whole season is a race to 12 – a race to 12 wins.
Once you get there you are playing for the icing. Look at last year’s ladder and almost every ladder since the top eight began.
If you get 12 wins, you are in the semis.
For every win over 12 wins you go up a place or even two places.
The first weeks are critical to the teams with really lofty ambitions. Sure you can come home with a run towards the end of the season but this is the hard way.
Having 12 wins up with six games to go is what most coaches will want.
Lastly everyone is saying it and I know bookmakers will disagree with me but Roosters are a lay to make it back to back at moment at this price. The dark horse of Round 1 has to be the Raiders at 3.40 this week.
Don’t be silly people, this week is as important as Round 26. You can only get two points for winning Round 1 or Round 26. Whoever plans on holding up the Provan-Summons Trophy at the end of the season must start their run this weekend.
Danny
Roar Rookie
Newcastle will struggle this year already have so many injuries unfortunately. Hopefully the master Wayne Bennett can pull a rabbit out of the hat though.
Charles NSW
Guest
The match against the Tigers today will be a good start for the Dragons. They have to show a big improvement to indicate where they are going for the season. With this young team and a few older players having the experience, they can certainly improve out of sight
Walter Penninger
Roar Guru
Let's see what they do tomorrow, 2 points would be good. Maybe after Souths win over the Roosters the Dragons Charity Shield loss does not look so bad.
Charles NSW
Guest
The big tip is that the Dragons will finish in the top eight!
Matt
Guest
Rabbitohs have made the finals three times in a couple decades, only twice in a competitive position. Even the best teams in recent history get knocked out of finals campaigns far more than they win them. Bellamy and Hasler both took 4-5 years to get their first trophy. So you're being a bit premature
Glenn Innes
Guest
I was going to say I think the two clubs being underestimated are Cronulla and Brisbane.Cronulla pushed Manly hard in their playoff game last year and with the rub of the green on Grand Final night Manly would be defending premiers.Cronulla are tough and will win more games than they lose. Brisbane have a good tough pack and their half back showed some promise at the back end of last season.If Barba can recapture his 2012 form look out for a serious move from the Brisbane Broncos.
Glenn Innes
Guest
Good article - Ihave spent some time studying NRL tables season to season over the last decade and believe me there is a lot of movement form season to season. For what it is orth (nothing really)
Bluebag
Guest
I think Bronx will be closer to the spoon than the 8. Apart from factors such as injury and refs, there is always a crop of youngsters who comes through, maybe rookies or guys who have been blooded for a year or two who all of a sudden go to another level. That's why the likes of Wests Tigers or Penrith may spring a few surprises and finish higher than anticipated.
Bluebag
Guest
Carn the Dales!
Clark
Guest
Well you can book in that South's won't win the comp. No matter where they finish they won't win it. They're the new St George Illawarra in terms of choking.
Peeko
Guest
Very true article, injuries so important to key personnel.
planko
Guest
Benedict agree with you I think it is important that they get up tomorrow.
Benedict Arnold
Guest
I should have said 'in no particular order', The sea eagles will be there again, they fooled all the naysayers last year and are a great side. So if they don't, I'll gladly eat my words.
planko
Guest
Meck01 I think they need a good start eg Tonight. I think they have a very good chance against a marginal contender ... The NRL could have given them a "blockbuster" up there for a first round but they went for the BARBA game.
planko
Guest
Wishful thinking on the Sea Eagles....
Ken
Guest
The rest is lottery but you're confident about those ones? It would be a strange year indeed if the Top 4 in 2014 was the same as the top 4 from 2013, historically it's much more likely that 1-2 of those teams will be struggling for the 8. Which ones? Well, that's the trick isn't it, I suspect the Sea Eagles might take a little tumble - not into an abyss but off the top of the tree at least.
Benedict Arnold
Guest
Top 8? Storm Sea Eagles Dogs Roosters Wabbits the rest is a lottery imo. The cows might come home but don't have a good history.
meck01
Guest
I'm a Broncos supporter, but I will be surprised if we make it to the finals. The wooden spoon wouldn't surprise me. The current coach won't be there next year.
Squidward
Roar Rookie
The mighty Glebe dirty reds
Squidward
Roar Rookie
I'm not convinced on Penrith. Or at least til soward is replaced by Issac John in round 5