The pre-season; where hope and optimism reign. Each club is more or less quietly confident about achieving more than the last year. Yet for all the talk of the most even season seen in years, the top of the table may be remarkably similar to last season.
Here’s my top four for this season.
1. Hawthorn Hawks
The Hawks would be expecting this year to go back-to-back. To do this, they will look to finish in the top two to avoid the likelihood of travelling during the finals.
In a season with three main candidates, 19 or more wins may well be required.
While one suspects losing Lance Franklin will have more of an impact than is anticipated, the Hawks’ list looks able to cover for that one big loss.
Scarily, the Hawks have improved their much-vaunted midfield by recruiting Ben McEvoy.
While Max Bailey’s efforts in becoming a premiership ruckman are extremely commendable, McEvoy is more dynamic and reliable option to complement David Hale.
The backline looks as settled as ever, and even expect an improvement from Norm Smith Medalist Brian Lake.
Up forward, they boast the Coleman Medalist Jarryd Roughead, Cyril Rioli, Jordan Lewis and the man who outperformed Buddy – Jack Gunston, with Roughy now the key man in what has been undoubtedly for the last couple of years the AFL’s most exciting attack.
But perhaps not this year…
2. Sydney Swans
Another vying for a top two spot, the Swans are perhaps the most exciting prospect of 2014.
A foward line of Kurt Tippett, Buddy Franklin and Adam Goodes seems to be the most complete tall forward combination of pack marking (Tippett), a leading forward with freakish ability (Franklin) and forward smarts (Goodes).
The million dollar, nine-year question is whether these forwards can operate together. If they can, good luck everybody else.
These forwards will be serviced by another of the AFL’s great midfields. Daniel Hannebery, Josh Kennedy, Kieran Jack and then possibly the best of them all, Jarrad McVeigh.
It is a formidable list, backed up in the ruck by the best Canadian Australia’s seen since Dale Begg-Smith.
If there is one area the Swans may have an issue it is down back, with the ageing Ted Richards likely to be supported by the inexperienced Sam Reid.
And yet, historically, the Swans have always found a way to be one of the most miserly teams in the competition.
3. Fremantle Dockers
The Dockers are the third team that would genuinely expect to finish in the top two and for Freo, it is perhaps crucial.
Although they beat the Cats in Geelong, it may prove harder this year to beat both the Swans and the Hawks away from Subiaco in the finals, should they fail to finish first or second.
The Dockers’ strength is undoubtedly their team defence. It is not hard to argue that Freo have fewer match-winners than either Hawthorn or the Swans, but they are a harder team to beat than both of the eastern-state rivals.
Stars such as Nat Fyfe (widely tipped for the Brownlow), David Mundy and the ever-green Matthew Pavlich are excellently supported by Luke McPharlin, Michael Johnson and – yes you guessed it – Hayden Ballantyne.
The pocket rocket was heavily criticised for his performance in the grand final and do not under-estimate the effect this will have on the him and other players.
The fire that burns after losing a grand final was evident during the Hawks’ victories last September, not so much against the Dockers but more so against the Cats, when they seemed down and out 20 points down.
Expect this pyschological factor to have an impact on Ross Lyon’s team.
4. Geelong Cats
Since 2007, Geelong has set the benchmark for excellence on the football field. In every season, the cats have been touted as premiership favourites, and even last year they were the last team to lose.
But the prelimanary final loss to the Hawks has many believing the era is over, that the Cats are destined to slip.
Not this writer.
Three names on the Cats’ list stand out – Harry Taylor, Joel Selwood and Tom Hawkins.
Here you have last year’s best defender and second best midfielder and 2012’s best forward. No team with that talent (it seems Hawkins is fit and firing again) will slip too far.
Josh Caddy seems set for a breakout year and if Steven Motlop continues on his current upward curve, he will be one of the best players in the comp.
Names such as James Kelly, Jimmy Bartel and Mitch Duncan, together with Geelong’s home ground advantage, ensure the Cats will again be around when the silverware is decided, although early season injuries may make the top two a Barwon River bridge too far.
Tune in tomorrow to see which teams will round out the top eight.
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