Does Damien Oliver's bet hurt his legacy?

Sorry operator error - we also realised there was a danger that new blood could appear on the scene and suddenly things could change and we could never reach perfection. So we crunched the numbers on jockeys when they were on ponies that were in the betting...longshots just corrupt the figures and the sample size is always low for any particular rider and most races are won by horses in the betting (I am not going to give an exact definition of in the betting ) And of course the most accurate guide to a horses chances of winning is weight of money you will never get a year when 6-4 shots win more than 5-4 shots and so on, Also long shots are overbet and how overbet they are depends on how long they are (the longer the more over bet they are (while horse in the betting tend to lose a consistent amount on turnover umtil you get to odds on which are the horses closest to true price) Of course there was still a weakness in all of this the effect the jockey himself had on the price a fashionable jockey riding a horse to a journeyman and both horse have 'identical form" the fashionable jockeys mount would be shorter.How much shorter? The problem of course is no two horses ever have identical form so we decided to try late riding changes but the sample sizes were to small so we said f###k it lets just crunch the numbers which lockey with a raw strike rate better than 8-1 provides the smallest loss on turnover on horses in the betting - in other words who do the punters most underestimate. Justin go to the head od of the class on a database that stretched from 1998 until I gave it away in 2011 the punters best friend was one Darren Beadman!Yep believe it or not under our formulea he was Australias most underestimated jockey. O

As far as who the "best" jockeys are I can't comment on Higgins the jockey stats we kept back in those days were so crude as to be laughable. But from the late nineties onward we started to get really serious about jockeys and trainers as our stats started to show the betting market underestimated their importance. So we started playing around with various models to try and find not so much who the best ones were but which ones the beting market underestimated. Obviously there were some limitations we could only deal with jockeys and trainers who had a large number of rides?runners as you need a decent sample size over a time frame taht was compact as both jockeys abd stables can driift away.

On these sort of issues you are always going to get a dichotomy between racing people and the general public.Racing people more or less except this may be the sport of kings but it is not the sport of angels. Boat races happen. jockeys bet.trainers manipulate preperations to get a price for themselves. defacto "owners privelages' give them the right to give their ponies a "quiet run" and so on and so on.For a seasoned punter it is all part of the almost infiinie variables we have to deal with and can sometimes to be to your advantage if you can spot the non trying runs. The problem is our sport is now in furious competition with sports wagering and while sports have had their scandals most punters probably think AFL and NRL the two biggest sports wagering products in this country (obviously not in Asia) are pretty clean. So to maintain turnover (the lifeblood of the industry) we can't afford Oliver type scandals - one of the few jockeys mainstream sport fans have even heard of pulling horses is a very bad look for an industry about to enter a life and death battle with football wagering..

Probably worth mentioning at this point in the debate that both Oliver and Higgins had the luxury of riding for strong stables for quite some time. Both Cummings and Freedman are Hall of Famers, freaks in their own right and contributed largely to both men's success. Perhaps timing in life is more important than timing on the horse in this case. The question should be could any jockey have achieved the levels of success given the same opportunities.

Oliver for sure, can someone post the ride on black tycoon in the Perth cup? Speaks for itself

I hope that the 'statue of limitations' is still standing.

Being an owner has absolutely killed me, Cody. I currently don't have anything going around and dread the day I do again. I did one Singo show, one attack on a trainer, and coerced one jockey. Many other things were written off as mitigating circumstances.

One of my favourites was on Epsom Day at Randwick last year. It was the last race in Melbourne and this particular punter backed Peron. When Peron stormed to the lead at the furlong he threw his racebook into the air, pointed his arms to the sky and turned around to celebrate in front of his mates. "PERON!! PERON you ******* beauty!" Then his mate turned him around and pointed out a flying Fire Up Fifi. All of a sudden panic set in. He began to cheer for Peron. But Peron, who was wide the whole way, had nothing left. She got run down. To say this particular punter was disappointed post-race was an understatement. The funny thing was I could see Fire Up Fifi coming to run Peron down at the same time the celebrations began! That is the best early crow I've ever seen.

It can be so funny watching people who've had a bet watch a race. I love doing it in the betting rings in Sydney, usually during a Melbourne race. Some will bob their heads, some will change the angle of their view to make the camera angle suit their horse. If you move to the left, it makes the horse closer to the rail (in Melbourne races) look further in front. If you move to the right (in Melbourne races) it makes the horses out wide look further advanced. They'll be other people who move closer to the TV as the race progresses. Alfred, I haven't seen anyone pull whip in public but I'm sure it happens at home!

I occasionally break out the whip...

This is the second biggest story of his career. The emotion of the 2002 cup will always be remembered as it was a moment that transcended the sport and captivated the entire country. That level of achievement in the midst of tragedy generates a level of goodwill that is remembered longer than a betting scandal. As I said, the betting scandal is still an issue to some; there will always be some who have an issue with the racing industry. These are the ones most likely to hold onto this as an ongoing stain. The general public with a passing but positive view of racing will move on. They remember the Media Puzzle story, and if they are talking about him at the moment it is about his connection to Fiorente.

---THAT---

The jockey story must sit as a chronology to have meaning. The most famous jockeys have added something to the industry in their style, strategy, even their use on particular mounts. We're currently in the expanding female world and await more from it. Darren Beadman had great ability to give a horse room to move forward when the leaders were slowing, especially in Sydney. This is one of three skills needed. The other skills are: - to set good pace; - to gather momentum Perhaps there is an undefinable quality to look for; it could be the best talking point too. Perhaps we wait for a jockey to write the next chapter. Of course, we still have many great practicing jockeys are not out to reinvent the art. I love being a lounge room jockey. Does anyone else start bobbing their head with each stride while watching TV? (I also watch the races from home occasionally)

Beadman was great on leaders by the way. I think Beadman and Oliver are the best two I've seen. Great under pressure, incredibly strong jockeys, great tacticians but Beadman is clearly superior on leaders. So, there's the justification for Beadman being the best I've seen.

Freakish win, absolutely!

Luke, Fantastic points on Oliver. I agree completely. It was a shocking ride on Grand Armee. I backed him too! Oli doesn't ride too many leaders, maybe to hide a weakness? Also agree with Grand Armee winning the QE regardless of how Beadman rides Lonhro. Still, Darren rode a poor race in my opinion. Just didn't make a difference to the result. Just on Higgins' nickname - nothing to do with his race-reading abilities. Actually stems from his middle name Henry. Henry Higgins...