The Roar
The Roar

Advertisement

2014 Canterbury Stakes: What happened to Zoustar?

Morphetville takes centre stage this weekend. (AAP Image/Julian Smith)
Expert
16th March, 2014
23

It may not have been the feature race on Randwick Guineas day, but the Canterbury Stakes (1300m, Group 1, weight-for-age) provided the most interesting talking points from the perspective of The Championships.

Appearance stamps herself as the best mare in Australia
In claiming her fourth Group 1 victory in the Canterbury, Appearance proved herself to be the best mare in Australia.

Three other mares have some sort of claim to the title – Red Tracer (two Group 1s), Streama (three Group 1s) and Catkins (no Group 1s).

The quartet have never met in a race but Appearance, Streama and Red Tracer have lined up together six times. And the Canterbury was Appearance’s fourth victory over the pairing of Streama and Red Tracer.

Streama holds the other two successes – when she was fourth in last year’s Doncaster (1600m, Group 1, weight-for-age) at the end of a long autumn, and in the 2012 Tristarc (1200m, Group 2, mares, set weights and penalties) at Caulfield.

Appearance was fantastic on Saturday. She sat last on a hot speed and unwound down the centre of Randwick to blow away Not Listenin’tome and Red Tracer in the final 100m.

In a remarkable statistic Appearance has now won a Group 1 at each of her last three third-up runs, at an average price of $19. By continuing to defy third-up expectation, Appearance proves she is clearly the best third-up horse in Australia.

And the most painful part of the whole story is that I’ve been telling everyone about Appearance’s great third-up record whenever I hear them speak of the mare, and yet I didn’t expect her to win on Saturday. I only tipped her for fourth.

Advertisement

I doubted Appearance. And I can’t believe I’m typing those words because she’s been such a great mare to me.

Appearance missed the Chipping Norton (1600m, Group 1, weight-for-age) last weekend – incidentally it was won by Boban who had come off two hidings at the hooves of Appearance – due to a tying up (muscle soreness) issue that has plagued Appearance throughout her career.

When trainer Guy Walter told the racing media how good Appearance had returned from her spell in the summer, he spoke about how she had been freed of the tying up issue.

When she killed her opposition in the Expressway (1200m, Group 2, weight-for-age) and Apollo (1400m, Group 1, weight-for-age) we were seeing what a pain-free Appearance could do.

So when I heard the tying up problem had returned, I thought the issue would rob Appearance of her outstanding autumn form.

This is where Walter deserves all the credit.

The training performance of Walter – to get Appearance over her complaint so she could perform at a distance considerably shorter and in a race completely different to the Chipping Norton she had been aimed at – deserves the greatest accolades.

Advertisement

This is the sort of effort that elevates a trainer in the eyes of the whole racing industry. Horses very rarely perform at their best mid-carnival after a setback.

Guy Walter can hang his hat on his performance to get Appearance to win the 2014 Canterbury Stakes. Remarkably, it’s her career-best performance.

And I shouldn’t forget to mention that Appearance looked an absolute treat before the race. Her coat and fitness levels were superior to each of her rivals in the mounting yard. And Walter deserves credit for that as well.

Just on Appearance’s great autumn form – if Boban and It’s A Dundeel (who was beaten by Boban last weekend) sit right at the top of Australian racing, it begs the question, where does Appearance sit?

For mine, right now, firmly in our top five gallopers.

In a fortnight, Appearance will meet Boban in the George Ryder (1500m, Group 1, weight-for-age). It promises to be one of the races of the autumn and will determine what Championship race Appearance targets.

Appearance has been nominated for the TJ Smith (1200m, Group 1, weight-for-age), Doncaster, Queen of the Turf (1500m, Group 1, mares, weight-for-age) and Queen Elizabeth.

Advertisement

If she was mine, I’d run her in the Doncaster before deciding whether to tackle the Queen of the Turf or Queen Elizabeth.

What happened to Zoustar?
The $20m colt Zoustar made his weight-for-age debut in the Canterbury. But he could only finish a very disappointing eighth.

The Golden Rose (1400m, Group 1, three-year-olds) and Coolmore Stud (1200m, Group 1, three-year-olds) winner from the spring was expected to figure prominently.

In my mind, Zoustar entered the autumn as the best sprinter in the land. A victory in next month’s TJ Smith would entrench the idea in everybody’s mind.

But that looks a mile away now (certainly a lot longer than the $6 on offer from the bookies).

What’s particularly weird is that some of Saturday’s results only further confirm Zoustar’s might.

Dissident, the horse that ran second to Zoustar in the Golden Rose, won the Randwick Guineas (1600m, Group 1, three-year-olds).

Advertisement

Villa Verde, who was fifth in the Coolmore Stud, won the Challenge (1000m, Group 2) at weight-for-age. Not Listenin’tome, who was two lengths off Zoustar in the Coolmore, was just over a length second in the Canterbury.

So what happened to Zoustar on Saturday? Everything pointed to him running a massive race.

The answer to the question is that he punctured badly in the last 200m. He simply didn’t finish his race off at all.

But why? Well, that’s the $20m question.

Zoustar pulled up mildly lame after the race. But according to Chris Waller, the horse seemed okay on Sunday.

Mildly lame? It would be a soft excuse.

Perhaps Zoustar failed because he lacked fitness and had to do a lot work in the middle stages. In the mounting yard, he didn’t look particularly fit and Waller did tell the media that he was hoping the horse’s quality – instead of his fitness – would get the job done. The TJ Smith is Zoustar’s Grand Final.

Advertisement

After racing third and without cover, a half-fit Zoustar was going to be vulnerable in the straight. His cause wasn’t helped when he began to raise his head to the sky, pulling for more rein on a hot speed.

But just because a horse might be vulnerable in the last 100m doesn’t excuse a complete capitulation, especially when they are rated as highly as Zoustar.

Furthermore, Zoustar also pulled all the way up the Flemington straight when he won the Coolmore Stud. And as I wrote a few weeks ago, the best horses can race ungenerously and still win.

Sunline did it all the time, Shamus Award did it in the Australian Guineas and Zoustar did it in the spring. It’s another soft excuse.

What could be more relevant to his failure is remembering that Zoustar had come from last, off quiet runs, to win his two Group 1s. Maybe he is one dimensional?

It’s all a big mess for the Zoustar camp, and his fan club – of which I am a member. Waller is planning to give Zoustar a trial before the TJ. It will make interesting viewing.

The horse looks to be three lengths, maybe even four or five, off where I thought he’d be at this stage of the carnival. If Waller can get to the bottom of the issue, whatever it is (fitness, form or injury), he can make up the ground in the next month.

Advertisement

But Zoustar’s poor racing manners are only going to make Waller’s headache bigger.

Zoustar may’ve been able to act a mule and win in the spring against his own age. I don’t think he’s going to be able to do it in the TJ Smith.

The beaten brigade
I loved the performance of Not Listenin’tome on Saturday. He had exactly the same run as Zoustar but was so much stronger. Importantly, he also looked to have plenty of improvement to come in the mounting yard.

Not Listenin’tome was easily a few lengths inferior to Zoustar in the spring, but there’s plenty of evidence this autumn to indicate he’s bridged a bit, if not all, of the gap.

The Hawkes-trained galloper is a more complete racehorse. He was left completely exposed with 300m to go on Saturday. He could’ve compounded like Zoustar (perhaps if he did, it would’ve taken the pressure off the high-profile colt) but instead he chose to fight.

If it wasn’t for the greatness of Appearance, Not Listenin’tome would’ve broken his Group 1 maiden status on weight-for-age debut. It was a performance – after having to chase the tearaway leader Rain Affair – that deserved victory.

Regardless of his defeat, Not Listenin’tome is on track for his TJ Smith assault.

Advertisement

I thought Red Tracer in third was brave. She was smashed at the start and ended up at the back of the field. In the straight she unwound strongly to take third.

She could back-up next week in the Coolmore Classic (1500m, Group 1, mares, handicap), where she could be asked to carry a massive 59kgs.

Interestingly – and this only serves to shower Appearance with more praise – in last year’s Coolmore Classic, Appearance had Red Tracer’s measure by a nose.

On that occasion, Red Tracer had to carry 2.5kgs more than Appearance. At level weights on Saturday, Appearance was clearly superior.

That shows, more than anything, how much improvement Appearance has taken.

When you factor in the 2.5kgs weight difference from the Coolmore to Saturday, 1.3-length greater winner margin, and the improvement of Red Tracer over the last 12 months, you could argue Appearance is five-length better mare this year. Her improvement truly is incredible.

In fourth and fifth in the Canterbury were some great runs. Sacred Falls, the reigning Doncaster winner, was very strong in fourth. He would’ve appreciated the rain that came with the pre-race thunderstorm.

Advertisement

Sacred Falls seems to be going as well as he was last year when he won the Doncaster on a wet track. The difference this time around is the extra 2kgs he will have to carry in the Doncaster.

Last year Sacred Falls won with 53kgs on his back. In what may be a weaker Doncaster than usual, Sacred Falls has to be a winning chance even if he ends up one of the top-weights. A rain-affected track will help his cause.

I loved Toydini’s last 50m. He charged through the ruck to take fifth. The best part is that Toydini is reliable.

When he storms home early in a prep, he tends to perform even better at his next start. It all eventually leads to a win.

The big question is whether that win will come in the Ryder in two weeks. In my opinion, he’s a definite chance. But the obvious concern is whether he is good enough to beat Appearance and Boban. He is yet to prove himself to be.

Of the rest, Speediness and Streama were just fair. And Rain Affair, who ended up ninth, was better than his finishing position indicates. At the 250m mark, he looked like the winner.

The difficulty for trainer Joe Pride is that Rain Affair’s new weakness – a failure to finish his races off adequately – is still present, despite racing well on Saturday. Rain Affair won’t be winning anything until he sorts out his last-furlong fadeouts.

Advertisement

On Saturday’s performance, he still deserves at least another chance (before retirement is considered).

close