The Roar
The Roar

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Be wary of premature predictions

Roar Rookie
18th March, 2014
22

We’re not yet halfway through Round 1 and many commentators have already come to some staggering conclusions.

Collingwood and Carlton are gone, Lance Franklin was a complete waste of money, and the two expansion sides are set to dominate for the next decade.

That’s not to say that any of these predictions are certain to be proven incorrect, but the determination to be the first to sharpen the knives overrides any common sense in the AFL community.

It’s the same every year, yet no one seems to learn from their prior mistakes.

In the first game of 2011, Melbourne and Sydney played out a thrilling draw on the MCG.

Melbourne – laden with high draft picks – was sure to be a team on the march, while the Swans – unable to perform on the big stage – were old and getting older.

Their time at the top had certainly come to a close.

Eighteen months later, Sydney were the 2012 premiers, while Melbourne could only manage to finish above the two newest sides.

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For all intents and purposes, they were by far the worst-performing team in the league.

Two teams at completely opposite ends of the spectrum were tied in a gripping duel, yet in the end it meant exactly nothing.

It is the dogged nature of the modern football media that every week be seen as a conclusion instead of a chapter, a destination in place of a journey.

So it was this weekend, with GWS causing one of the biggest boil overs of modern times with a runaway victory over the premiership-fancied Swans.

The Gold Coast also lasted longer in an entertaining tussle with top-four aspirants Richmond.

In the other games, Fremantle seemingly confirmed their status as one of the teams to watch with a crushing win over the Magpies, while Carlton, ahead for three quarters, were left in the dust by a hard-running Port Adelaide.

The victors deserve the praise, and certainly the quartet were impressive in securing the points.

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Yet, particularly in the case of the Giants, it pays to be cautious before making bold claims about dynasties and future champions.

While the excitement of the moment seemed to elevate the result to the dawn-of-a-new-epoch status, so much will change in the course of the next six months.

While the success will be viewed as historically significant for Greater Western Sydney as a club, in the context of 2014 it is worth noting why upsets are viewed as such.

It is often said, usually by the same reactionary commentators and usually in an attempt to seem sage after the fact, that the AFL season is a marathon and not a sprint.

While this is true, if you continue to make daring predictions you’re bound to get something right eventually.

Let us then view the launch of another campaign, noted for its predilection for endurance, as merely the mirage that it is, rather than the reality it purports to be.

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