I have made some predictions this NRL season and all are going reasonably well at the five-round mark.
Penrith and St George Illawarra were two of my picks to make solid rises up the ladder in 2014, while I wrote that Chris Sandow could be the making of Parra’s season and also suggested teenage halfback Luke Brooks and Wests Tigers’ Department of Youth would create plenty of excitement.
Here’s another guess – and I am taking a deep breath before delivering it – but I see some serious cracks developing in the Melbourne Storm defence that could widen into canyons before long, costing one of the NRL’s best performed teams of the past decade a finals berth.
In short, I think Melbourne’s once-feared goal-line armour has become brittle and for the first time in yonks, opposing teams believe they can breach it consistently enough to win games.
Just look at the Storm’s scores so far this season: W 23-22 v Manly, W 18-17 v Penrith, W 29-20 v Newcastle, L 12-40 v Canterbury and L 26-28 v Gold Coast.
By my reckoning, that’s a hefty 127 points against as opposed to 107 for and a negative differential of -20.
That blowout in Perth against the Bulldogs followed the Jordan McLean controversy and reasonable people could make some allowance for that. But last weekend’s game against the Titans must have caused plenty of angst for coach Craig Bellamy, a character who would probably sell his mother for a shut-out.
The Titans scored some of the softest tries I have ever seen against a Melbourne team, ultimately drawing level before receiving a late and highly dubious penalty goal that brought an upset win.
It was the manner in which the Storm conceded those five tries that should be major cause for concern in the southern capital. No-one had to run through that once-feared purple brick wall to register four points. Scoring chances arose on a regular basis and the Gold Coast were good enough to capitalise and snaffle the competition lead.
The week before, the Bulldogs romped all over, around and through the Storm defence. In the two weeks before that, the Panthers and Sea Eagles registered plenty of points but were beaten by field goals.
I have watched all five Storm games in 2014 and have a suspicion that the hunger to protect their line has waned alarmingly. The modern Storm players are not respecting possession as their predecessors did, giving up far too many penalties, and giving the opposition a leg-up.
Others have been watching, too, and many of them are NRL opponents.
It now seems if you can pressure Melbourne for long enough, the Storm will lose their thunder and lightning and the skies will clear for teams to register points aplenty.
Manly showed everyone in Round 1 that there are some serious chinks in the once impregnable Melbourne armour. Geoff Toovey’s men posts 20 unanswered points in the first half, but inexplicably fell away when attacking spearhead Brett Stewart picked up an injury.
I thought at the time that it was an aberration for the Storm, But in the month that followed, failings in Melbourne’s defensive structure have been magnified.
Granted, this is turning out to be a roller-coaster competition with every team a winning chance of on any day or night. But I will be watching to see if Melbourne can rebuild their trademark brick wall or be forced to rely on the attacking geniuses in their ranks to score more points than the other mob on a weekly basis.
If they can’t, I am prepared to tip that Melbourne Storm will finish where they are now on the competition table – a very uncomfortable ninth, or worse.
Clark
Guest
Everybody says this every year. Melbourne will be up there come finals time. probably need a few more quick wins before the origin period though.
SuperEel22
Roar Guru
Nathan Peats anyone? Regularly tops the tackle count for Parramatta and is THE reason the Eels are in the 8 right now. He's tough in defence and a real spark in attack. He's got a winning mentality and drives that side. If Farah were to be injured I'd be more than comfortable with Peats playing for NSW. He's not ahead of Farah but he's not far behind either.
Brucey
Guest
Storm is now one of the only teams playing within the salary cap, along with Canberra and cronulla, so that is a disadvantage. Teams are now promising TPAs as part of their contract and Storm can't complete with that. Bellamy is a fine coach and will adapt. But it will take until the second half of the season. Also I'd prefer Smith, Cronk and Slater to sit out origin this year. They have done enough for QLD. They need to look after Storm.
john badseed
Guest
Planko-No one, yes no one, looks better than Snakey sliding from the back field.
Scrubbit
Guest
He's been better than friend. Ballins a little ahead though.
Don
Roar Rookie
I think the QLD pecking order would be Smith, Friend, Ballin, Segeyaro then McCullough.
Brett
Guest
The NRL season is only into round 6, early days yet. I don't see NSW winning a series with Pearce and Maloney as the halfs.
Mantis
Roar Guru
Yeah I don't necessarily disagree. But hes up there
Stu
Guest
Everyone assumed that the transition away from the Big 3 would occur after they retired. It's happening now. More of the under 20's are finding themselves with first grade starts and it shows: some young kid doesn't run the right line or makes a bad read in defence. To cap it off, buys like George Rose want a release, the Jordan McLean is suspended, Duffie out for the season again. What happens on Monday night will be telling. Good teams bounce back. Storm by 20.
Jackson Henry
Guest
I actually think he's sensational and one of my top 3 favourite players - but he's not better than Cronk.
Jackson Henry
Guest
If we're talking Fantasy, well, much of it would depend on the price. If we're talking reality, then it's pretty obvious to anyone with a pair of eyes: Dally M Halfback of the Year 2006, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 Grand Final winner 2012 Clive Churchill Winner 2012 (and, probably in 2009 as well, something that Billy Slater, the eventual winner, stated himself. Although the roster that year was "illegal"). Dally M Winner 2013 Plus consistent superiority in line break assists, try assists, 40/20s, and errors. Plus, only having started at HB for Qld in two series and putting on the game-wnning plays in both series' deciders, bless him In fact who has the most try assists this year, despite his team being well down the ladder and despite only making his 2014 debut in Round 2? LOL.
Sleemo
Guest
Maybe across the course of all five games so far he's been average by his standards but he's still a mile ahead of any halfback in the comp so far this year. He was brilliant against the Rabbitohs and Roosters, amazing against the Storm in the first half, tried hard in the second, disappointing on Sunday against Wests and got the job done against Parra. By and large he's doing okay.
Charles NSW
Guest
My heart will always say St George! I am hoping and feel they will come back especially if they have an improved penalty count
planko
Roar Guru
Charles NSW I do agree with about most of your questions but the question remains 3.5 or 3.6 I am taking StGeorge. I thought they looked good against Souths and got absolutely Rogered by Refs and Lady luck. If they get 50/50 calls in the run they will win. Footy tiping comp take the favs.
planko
Roar Guru
I told you before Nasal Spray does wonders for that Will. Start yapping at Round 20. I think you guys are looking good but it is early days.
Charles NSW
Guest
There are a number of concerns with the Dragons that need addressing. The Storm will be a good match to see how they are progressing. Why carry 21 players each time, is it that hard to nominate 17 players Unless of course there is an injury which you then have a player ready to take their place He has his 1/2 back Wit come off injury only to replace him with Qunlin, why? Now he replaces Quinlin back with the original 1/2 back Wit This to me shows there are concerns with the 1/2 back position Dragons are also showing lack of discipline with fundamental mistakes Unless they fix these problems they will continue to lose more games then win them
Tiger
Guest
One good game against Manly don't make a winter!
bilbo
Guest
Ballin and Jake Friend would be in front of him.
planko
Roar Guru
Ballin is next in line for QLD.
planko
Roar Guru
Yeah .... LOL Mantis and Jackson you have 2 players in front of you which one are you buying.