Australian Oaks: preview, live blog, tips and results

The Australian Oaks (2400m, Group 1, set weights) showcases the best staying fillies from across Australiasia. Catch all the action with The Roar as we count down to race time at 3:05pm AEST.

History tells us the winner of this race comes out of a strong run in the Storm Queen Stakes or the Adrian Knox the previous week. The majority of fillies come from these two races, so we don’t have to look too wide to find the winner.

I am expecting pace from the Gai Waterhouse pair in Amanpour and Forever Loved – they surely won’t cut each other up. Miss Selby should also take up a forward position, while John Sargent stated Miss Mossman will also push forward and perhaps even contest for the lead from an outside draw after she refused to settle in the Storm Queen.

Favourite Lucia Valentina was a commanding winner of that race off a slow pace, courtesy of a brilliant Bowman ride. She has drawn well again today and handles all track conditions. Watch Solicit’s run in the Queen of the Turf as it may further enhance her chances.

Behind her was Zanbagh, who drew the carpark and covered a lot of ground out wide. She will sit a lot closer today, and her run in the VRC Oaks shows she will handle the step up in distance. The Guy Walter filly does have six lengths to make up on Lucia Valentina, but a quieter ride will definitely be of great benefit.

Rising Romance did not quite handle the heavy going at Rosehill, but finished off nicely just behind Zanbagh. She finished second in the New Zealand Derby so the trip won’t be an issue, and she did score a victory over the favourite in January.

Suavito and Interspersed made good ground without threatening in the Storm Queen, though both will improve on a drier track. Miss Mossman’s run was best forgotten, and she will appreciate the firmer surface.

Last week’s Adrian Knox saw Arabian Gold fly home to beat Missvonn, who finished sixth in the Storm Queen. Missvonn will be backing up for the third straight week, but she has been crying out for the 2400m and Guy Walter has an excellent record in the Oaks.

Role Model and Amanpour were disappointing in the same race, but could be excused due to the wet track.

Casino Dancer backs up from a big run in the Carbine Club Stakes last week behind Gypsy Diamond. She was comfortably beaten in the Storm Queen, however, and steps up to the 2400m for the first time.

The left-field entry comes from New Zealand in the shape of lightly raced Miss Selby. She has been freshened since a well-beaten second to Miss Mossman in the New Zealand Oaks, but with Glen Boss engaged you have to concede her a chance.

The Storm Queen looks like the stronger form line this year, especially when you line-up the Adrian Know through Missvonn. With good pace on, the class should rise to the top.

Roar racing writers’ autumn tipping competition (five points if winning horse is tipped for first; three points if tipped for second; two for third and one for fourth):

Sam Kelly – Roar Guru and today’s live blogger
1. Zanbagh
2. Lucia Valentina
3. Rising Romance
4. Miss Mossman

Justin Cinque – Roar Racing Editor
1. Lucia Valentina
2. Zanabgh
3. Missvonn
4. Rising Romance

Cameron Rose – Roar Expert
1. Lucia Valentina
2. Zanbagh
3. Suavito
4. Miss Mossman

Alfred Chan – Roar Guru
1. Rising Romance
2. Lucia Valentina
3. Suavito
4. Casino Dancer

Brad Durrant – Roar Guru
1. Zanbagh
2. Lucia Valentina
3. Rising Romance
4. Missvonn

Brent Ford – Roar Guru
1. Lucia Valentina
2. Zanbagh
3. Interspersed
4. Suavito

Points tally after Day 1 of The Championships
Brent Ford – 39
Justin Cinque – 30
Cameron Rose – 29
Alfred Chan – 22
Brad Durrant – 22