I do hope Ivan Gazidis and the Arsenal board have taken note of how the whole David Moyes and Manchester United relationship worked out, as it provides two valuable lessons about how they should handle the end of Arsene Wenger’s tenure as the Gunners’ manager.
1. A younger manager must have a history of success
David Moyes managed Everton for 11 years and, despite what some would have you believe, did a mighty fine job. He took the club from battling relegation to the precipice of the top four. However, after spending that much time at low-to-mid-table club, coping with the expectations and challenges associated with a top tier club proved too great.
The style of football Moyes developed at Everton (defensive and direct) worked, but was never going to cut it at Manchester United.
If you look at the most successful new managers of top clubs, unless they already have top-tier experience, they are almost inevitably younger managers with an established history of winning. Take the most successful clubs in the Premier League era as an example:
While Moyes had been successful at Everton, he did not have the experience of winning needed to be successful at a big club. Manuel Pellegrini, another manager without the taste of success, is looking unlikely to guide Manchester City to anything beyond the Capital One Cup, despite having an enormous squad worth almost one billion pounds.
This is why, if Arsenal are targeting a younger manager, it should be either Jurgen Klopp (twice Bundesliga winner and Champions League finalist with Borussia Dortmund) or Diego Simeone (who looks odds-on to break the duopoly in Spain with his Athletico Madrid side). Both fit the age profile, and have the history associated with being a successful manager at one of the biggest clubs in the world.
There are obviously exceptions to this rule, such as Pep Guardiola, who stepped into the Barcelona job and guided them through their most ever successful ever era, but they are exceedingly rare. People championing current Everton manager Roberto Martinez should remember there are a lot more David Moyes than Pep Guardiolas.
2. Arsene Wenger must not choose his successor
The most successful managers are egomaniacs who believe that they are always right – look no further than the three managers mentioned above. This is fine when the decisions they are making are about managing a football team, since they are experts at this, but it’s another matter when it comes to selecting their successor.
It is only natural that Alex Ferguson thought he was best placed to choose his successor, and I’m sure Arsene Wenger thinks the same, but this is not where their expertise lies. Being able to manage a club successfully is a different skill from being able to identify who could do the same. You would never find the CEO of a major company appointing his or her own successor, nor should it be the case at a football club.
The most successful cases of appointment come from a dedicated team whose specific job it is to identify and acquire managerial targets, such as Bayern Munich’s swoop for the aforementioned Pep Guardiola.
Any major club looking to appoint a manager any other way is not maximising their chance of appointing someone who will be successful.
bill boomer
Guest
Ok I'll say it. lesson 1 DON'T hire moyes
Devan Moorthy
Roar Rookie
The difference with Rodgers and Liverpool is that there was no expectation of success when he came in. Sure they expected him to progress, but winning or competing for the League was surely not the short-term aim that it would be at any of the top four teams. I think the problem with AVB is twofold; from all accounts his man managements skills are severely lacking, and he doesn't seem to have the ability to make tactical changes to adapt to the players at his disposal (for example playing a high line with a slow Tottenham defence)
Mark Edwards
Guest
I agree that a manager should never choose their successor, but i'm not so sure that previous success is a pre-requisite. Each of Ferguson, Wenger and Mourinho did have previous successes before getting to the big time but what really links them is that they all served long apprenticeships and they came into these jobs with a vision of how they wanted to play which they had developed over many years. The key to success at the top level is to have developed and continually refined a way of playing which works with the players at your disposal. If you look at the managers currently making waves in the PL, namely Rodgers and Martinez, they both spent plenty of time with teams in the lower reaches of the league where they developed a concrete idea of the way in which they want their teams to play. This experience is invaluable for a manager seeking to operate at the highest level as it allows you time to tinker with your system without such a high risk of being fired and having to work under such budgetary constraints normally means they have a better eye for a player than managers such as Mancini who just went straight into the big time. Overall Moyes failed because he is at heart a reactive and pragmatic manager that is more comfortable stifling the opposition, and as such never developed a coherent theory for how he wanted MU to play. Without a defined system to dictate play and challenge the opposition you cannot succeed at the top end, ultimately Moyes' pragmatic mentality was the reason for his failure.
Devan Moorthy
Roar Rookie
I agree, the age profile of the squad is nice and from all accounts there is enough money there for a new manager to bring players in.
Bombay Zamora
Guest
A fine prose supported by efficient use of enumeration and bullet points. However, I would like to raise the following exhibits: A: Liverpool and Brendan Rodgers. No history of "winning", unless you include promotion to the Premier League. However, Rodgers came equipped with an underlying philosophy of what a team should be about. A well learned tactical genius in the making. You could argue. B: Chelsea and Andre Villas Boas. History of winning - check. Underlying philosophy - check. Transition to success at an already successful club - no. AVB has always been a curious one.
Steven McBain
Roar Guru
Nice read Devan and welcome to the gang. I think Arsenal will have to think very carefully about how they replace Wenger but at the same time, whilst I think he's a hugely powerful figure at Arsenal, I don't think somehow he'd become the elephant in the room that Ferguson is for the next in line. I also think that Arsenal will be providing a better platform in some respects for a new manager and coming from a far lower expectation base given Wenger's lack of silverware in the past 10 years. Wenger I feel will leave a huge legacy but far less of a shadow than Ferguson has cast over Old Trafford, and that's a good thing.
Devan Moorthy
Roar Rookie
A good hiring procedure can still produce an obvious choice like Guardiola. I'm not so quick to buy into the lack of incisiveness argument, I think its possible for any team to have an off day away to Real Madrid at the Bernabeu. They have been nothing short of ruthless in the Bundesliga.
Catnap
Guest
If it had not been for injuries to his top players he would have had a good season!!!!!!
Adam
Guest
Spot on. Signing Gaurdiola is hardly a sign of brilliance searching for a manager though, quite an obvious choice. Although it could be argued that this seasons Bayern under Guardiola might not be as incisive against opposition of genuine quality. Shown by lack of cutting edge against a resolute/defensive Real Madrid. Bayern seem to lack the thrust from the full backs compared to last season, which is a shame considering the talent of Alaba and Lahm.