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A-League Grand Final: Using the stats to pick a winner

3rd May, 2014
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Roar players celebrate following the A-League season 7 grand final between the Brisbane Roar and Perth Glory (AAP Image/Dave Hunt)
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3rd May, 2014
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This weekend sees the 2013 premiers face the 2014 premiers in a battle for the coveted A-League toilet seat.

Rumours are that the 2014 seat comes with heating for those cold winter mornings, which only makes the prize that much more important.

Facing off in the final are two of the best sides from the past two seasons – the Brisbane Roar and the Western Sydney Wanderers.

In 2013/14 the Roar achieved a winning percentage in normal season games of 59 per cent, while in 2012/13 the Wanderers hit 67 per cent. If a league table was created over the past two seasons, the Wanderers would be first with 99 points with the Roar sitting third with 87. The Mariners would sit between the two on 96.

There are numerous other sub-plots to the game besides the fact that it’s the best two teams playing off for silverware.

A few interesting angles are that it’s Japanese superstar Shinji Ono’s last A-League game in Australia; Besart Berisha plays his last game for the Roar before heading south to Melbourne; and the Wanderers will be looking for redemption after being beaten favourites in last season’s final.

There are also a bunch of Aussies that will be looking for a big performance to convince Ange Postecoglou to put them on a plane to Brazil.

The game is sold out, bar a few seats which don’t actually allow you a view of the pitch, so the scene is set for what should be a cracking 90 minutes.

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Trying to pick a winner isn’t easy, but taking a look back at the stats might provide some kind of clue.

Over the past two seasons the Roar and the Wanderers have played seven times, including one finals game in last year’s series. Over the course of these seven games, there have been two draws, the Roar have won one and the Wanderers have won four.

Three games have been played at Suncorp with Brisbane winning one and losing two – one of those losses providing the Wanderers’ first ever win and first ever goal in the A-League.

Despite this lopsided history of results between the two teams, the Roar have started favourites in four of the seven games played. For the punters out there, only two of these seven games finished with over 2.5 goals. The winning margin has been two goals twice and one goal three times.

Looking back at 36 finals games over the past six seasons, we can see that the home side wins 55 per cent of the time and wins or draws 80 per cent of the time.

Ominously, the Roar have never lost a home finals game in their history (played seven, drawn two, won five), while the Wanderers have never lost an away finals game in their history (mainly because they have never played one!).

The Roar have been strong at home all season, playing 15 and winning 11 for a 73 per cent win rate. The Wanderers on the road have played 14, winning five, drawing four and losing five for a win rate of 35 per cent.

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Over the same sample of 36 finals series games, when the home team has started favourite they have won or drawn in 90 per cent of games. The away side has come away with the win only 10 per cent of the time. Conversely, when the away team was favourite they won 80 per cent of the time.

So, how has the home team fared in the grand final over the past eight seasons? The home team has come out on top on five of the eight occasions while the away side has won in three of the eight games.

So most of the historical stats, not including head to head between the two sides, point strongly towards a home team victory. Especially when you consider that Brisbane have never lost a home finals game and have a great home record which compares favourably to the Wanderers’ away record.

The head-to-head data points strongly towards a Wanderers victory, who have the wood on the Roar having won four of their seven meetings with two of these victories coming at Suncorp.

I’m going to count on the Roar’s strong home form and their stellar finals record and predict a Roar win. However, as most of the games between the two teams are tight, I’m backing the Roar to win by a one goal margin.

2-1 to the Roar.

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