It’s highly possible that Cadel Evans could win the 2014 Giro D’Italia. He could you know, the route plays to Evans’ greatest strength – he bends but never breaks.
When he won the 2011 Tour de France it was like Evans stayed where he was and the rest fell away.
That tactic might work in this Giro, because historically the race lends itself to that tactic.
Evans has a strong team backing him in the restructured BMC Racing, restructured I might add by an Aussie, Alan Peiper. Samuel Sanchez and Manuel Quinziato have firepower in the mountains, and the rest are strong, willing and able.
The route has a rugged start in Ireland on heavy roads and it will most probably rain, but that will suit Evans. There’s a long transfer to the heel of Italy, which experienced riders cope with well. Then there’s a long slog up through the centre of Italy, a flat time trial and a brutal final week with mountain-top finishes at Val Martello, Rufugio Panarotta, a time trial up Monte Grappa, and another mountain-top finish on the incredibly steep Monte Zoncolan.
Oh, and the Val Martello stage crosses the Gavia and Stelvio.
It’s going to be a race that favours the strong and favours those who lets things come to them. A poker player on wheels really, who knows when to play and when to hold. Evans is like that.
Nobody will get a hammer blow in early this year, the route won’t let them. It’s a waiting game that will take patience. Evans will wait.
Neither will Evans have the stress of a co-leader, like he had in the 2013 Tour de France with Tejay Van Garderen. It affected him badly then, but Evans hasn’t got that distraction now.
Since then BMC has managed the Evans-Van Garderen dynamic brilliantly, and Evans now says he’s unlikely to start the 2014 Tour de France. He and Van Garderen have hardly seen each other this year, so any conflict has been avoided.
But can a 37 year-old win a Grand Tour? Well, if Chris Horner can win the Vuelta at nearly 40 there’s no reason why Evans cannot win this Giro. People aren’t ageing like they did, and the theories of ageing in sport have been re-written recently.
Evans looks as good as he ever has this year, at least as good as any other Grand Tour contender, apart maybe from Chris Froome. But Evans has been consistently good, which Froome hasn’t.
Evans started high, and slowly got better as the year progressed. His recent win in the Giro del Trentino shows he is on top form. Form that is more likely to last because of the diesel-powered rider he is, and because of his age.
I see Evans working his way up the overall standings during the medium mountain stages up the leg of Italy, then moving right into contention during the Barolo time trial. He entered the top three on a similar stage last year, and the 2014 time trial route is just long and flat enough for some mountain climbing specialists to lose out badly.
Then Evans will wait while others try to take matters into their own hands early on in the final week. But that tactic won’t pay in this Giro.
I see Evans slipping into the lead around Stage 16, maybe 18. Then watch him fight to defend. It could be the last big push of his career, but what a way to end it.
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