Ten key questions about the 2014 Giro d'Italia

With a Guinness-fuelled grande partenza looming, it’s time to answer the questions on the tip of everyone’s tongue ahead of the opening Grand Tour of the season.

The 97th edition of the Giro d’Italia gets under way on Friday with a Team Time Trial in Belfast, followed by two road stages in Northern Ireland and Ireland.

Once the race returns to the host nation with a long transfer to the heel of Italy following an unorthodox early rest day, then a series of flat and rolling stages will spirit the riders up the backbone of Italy before a pulsating Alpine crescendo.

With six gruelling summit finishes in the last eight days – including slogs up the fearsome Stelvio and Zoncolan climbs – the race finishes with a circuit-style criterium in the seaport of Trieste. This arrives after a total of 3,445.5 kilometres in the saddle.

Last year, all eyes were on Bradley Wiggins as he attempted to become the first Briton to win the famous maglia rosa. Look how that ended up. With so many factors to consider and permutations to play out, let’s try and address some key issues about the race.

The first five questions will run on Friday, with the second five running on Saturday, in anticipation of the Giro’s start on Sunday.

1. Can Cadel Evans win it?
In a word, no. Sure, Chris Horner showed the world that a rider four years Evans’ senior can still win a Grand Tour, but the circumstances were very different.

Horner’s a far more explosive climber than Evans and his main opposition came from Italian Vincenzo Nibali, who had already won his season’s principal target, the Giro.

I’m not saying Evans won’t win the race – or won’t put up a very good fight – just that it’s my personal view that he will struggle in the final week of the race with those successive summit finishes. There may be a lack of star riders turning out this May – but there’s still enough young talent to stifle even the dogged experience of a real trooper like Evans.

I don’t want to dwell on this too much – just get it out of the way early on. My fellow Roar columnist Chris Sidwells has argued passionately in favour of Evans’ chances, while elsewhere I have outlined my theories in a piece on Australian riders featuring in the race.

2. Is the pink jersey Quintana’s to lose?
It would look that way, yes. The Colombian was the revelation of last year’s Tour and at the age of just 24 has now been given the reins at Movistar to target the GC in what will be his debut Giro.

Quintana is arguably the best climber in the race and will be supported by an experienced team that includes the likes of Igor Anton, Andrey Amador and Eros Capecchi.

Quintana’s condition, however, is largely unknown – the rider preferring to train at altitude in Colombia rather than rack up many racing kilometres in the spring. Time will also tell how such a young talent will cope with the pressure of being the outright favourite.

Ten years his senior, Joaquim Rodriguez is an old hand when it comes to Grand Tours. Runner up in the 2012 Giro by just 16 seconds, and third in last year’s Tour and the 2012 Vuelta, the Spaniard knows what it takes to finish consistently high on the centre stage. With the sands of time dropping away, Purito will be eager to fill that elusive space on his palmares with a major stage race victory.

Throw in the likes of Evans, last year’s runner-up Rigoberto Uran, Italians Michele Scarponi and Domenico Pozzovivo and Poles Rafal Majka and Przemyslaw Niemiec, and we certainly have more than a simple two horse race.

“I wish it was just a fight between two riders,” says Rodriguez, “but in fact it’s going to be a very open race.”

3. Won’t all those time trials act against Quintana and Rodriguez?
In theory, yes. But the reality is very different. The route features a total 91 time trial kilometres – the most in any Grand Tour since Wiggins won the 2012 Tour de France – but this is very misleading.

First up, the 22 kilometre Team Time Trial that opens the race in Belfast will cast Movistar as one of the favourites alongside Orica-GreenEDGE and BMC. With the likes of Jonathan Castroviejo and Adriano Malori on board, Quintana will not worry about shipping too much, if any, time to his main rivals.

The first 42 kilometre Individual Time Trial from Barbaresco to Barolo has been altered to include a couple of small climbs. So this is not your usual Martin-Wiggins-Cancellara-style race against the clock where climbers will concede five minutes to the specialists. Meanwhile, the final 27 kilometre time trial up the Cima Grappa is entirely uphill and will probably see both Quintana and Rodriguez start amid the favourites.

Rodriguez himself has improved his Individual Time Trial abilities no end in recent years, finishing third in last year’s hilly chrono in the Tour.

4. When will the race be decided?
If not on the nine per cent gradient of the Grappa, then the last eight days of the race features five other summit finishes. This includes back-to-back slogs to Oropa and Montecampione – two climbs steeped in Marco Pantani mythology – a short but sharp stage that ventures up both the Gavia and Stelvio ahead of the final ascent of Val Martello. And a penultimate stage that concludes on the fearsome Monte Zoncolan.

In short, this final week will decide the outcome of the race. Until Stage 14 it will be very much a case of the favourites keeping themselves hidden away while limiting their losses and avoiding any spills.

5. What chance of a dream start for Ireland?
About as likely as Lance Armstrong coming out of retirement for a third time. You see, unless the Garmin-Sharp, Sky and Tinkoff-Saxo teams of Dan Martin, Philip Deignan and Nicolas Roche win the opening Team Time Trial – which they won’t – then we won’t see an Irishman wear the maglia rosa.

Sure, there are time bonuses up for grabs in Stages 2 and 3 – but those ones look set to be decided by the sprinters, and none of the Irish trio will be a factor in a bunch gallop.

The most likely scenario for the grande partenza is that Canadian veteran Svein Tuft will take the opening maglia rosa on his 37th birthday after victory for Orica-GreenEDGE – unless the Australian team decide to come home with Ivan Santaromita in pole position to give Italian fans something to shout about.

GreenEDGE’s Michael Matthews – provided he finishes in the top three of the sprint – should then assume the race leadership after Stage 2, and take this on to Italian soil via Dublin in stage three.

6. Do Italy have anything to get excited about?
Last year Vincenzo Nibali took the top prize, while Vini-Farnese pair Danilo Di Luca and Mauro Santambrogio starred in the mountains. With Nibali focusing on the Tour and the two others banned, Italy will be under pressure to perform – especially with Gio Visconti, a double stage winner last year, sitting this one out too.

For the general classification, Italian hopes will lie with veterans Michele Scarponi (Astana), Damiano Cunego (Lampre) and Ivan Basso (Cannondale), although pocket-rocket climber Domenico Pozzovivo (Ag2R-La Mondiale) is a better prospect for a high finish.

Gone are the days when Alessandro Petacchi (Omega Pharma-Quick Step) is a real threat in bunch sprints, but the locals will hope that Elia Viviani (Cannondale), Giacomo Nizzolo (Trek), Davide Appollonio (Ag2R), Roberto Ferrari (Lampre), Francesco Chicchi (Neri Sottoli), Nicola Ruffoni (Bardiani-CSF) and Manuele Belletti (Androni) can get in the mix.

Enrico Battaglin and Luca Paolini won stages last year and will return with similar aspirations, while the likes of Oscar Gatto (Cannondale), Fabio Felline (Trek), Diego Ulissi (Lampre) and Sonny Colbrelli (Bardiani) can’t be discounted.

That’s even before we take the mountains into consideration, where Stefano Pirazzi (Bardiani), Matteo Rabottini (Neri Sottoli) and Paolo Tiralongo (Astana) will be champing at the bit. And what of Movistar’s Adriano Malori in the opening time trial?

The list goes on. In short, unlike the Tour de France and French stage winners, it’s totally inconceivable that Italy won’t win a stage or place at least one rider in the top ten come Trieste.

7. Is Marcel Kittel as big a shoo-in for red as Quintana is for pink?
Not necessarily. The young German notched four wins in last year’s Tour and, in the absence of both Mark Cavendish and Andre Greipel, will clearly be the star attraction in the sprints. But Kittel still has aspirations for the Tour and so will no doubt drop out of the race ahead of that brutal final week.

This may open the door for his Giant-Shimanoteammate Luka Mezgec, although given his prior lead-out duties, the Slovenian may be a bit off the pace in the points competition.

Former track star Viviani – the only rider to beat Cavendish in last week’s Tour of Turkey – could be the best bet for the red jersey. He will face stiff competition from Frenchman Nacer Bouhanni (FDJ), still in the hunt for a maiden stage win in a Grand Tour, and the Australian Michael Matthews (OGE), a double winner in Spain in his debut Vuelta last summer.

8. Do Australia have any hope beyond Evans and Matthews?
Luke Durbridge will look to shine in the first ITT while Orica-GreenEDGE teammate Cameron Meyer will have a free roll in the hills. Don’t forget marathon man Adam Hansen too – the Lotto Belisol veteran is riding his eighth consecutive Grand Tour and will no doubt look to feature in a break or two as he bids to take a stage win.

With some of Tinkoff-Saxo’s squad being ruled out because of visa issues, veteran Mick Rogers has made the cut after being cleared for his failed clenbuterol positive last season. While Rogers’ main target of the season is to help Alberto Contador win the Tour, the Canberra cyclist try and snare a win – although his job will be to support teammates Nicolas Roche and Rafal Majka.

For more on Australia’s chances read my previous piece on The Roar.

9. So, who are the outsiders to watch?
Now that Scarponi has scarpered, the experienced Polish climber Przemyslaw Niemiec should be Lampre’s top dog and will be looking to better last year’s sixth place. The whole of Ireland’s getting excited about Nicolas Roche’s prospects, but his young Tinkoff teammate Rafal Majka, seventh last year, has a better shot at the podium.

Team Sky are experiencing a rather torrid season and they’re down to their seventh and eighth choice GC riders, Dario Cataldo and Kanstantsin Siutsou, in the battle for pink. This may act in their favour. Winner of the Baby Giro in 2006, Cataldo has twice finished 12th in recent years, while the Belorussian made the top ten in 2011.

Croatian Robert Kiserlovski, still only 27, also has a top ten in the Giro to his name and should have a free reign in a Trek team unencumbered by either of the Schleck brothers. Both Igor Anton (Movistar) and Samuel Sanchez (BMC) have heaps of experience and the former Euskaltel riders will be on hand should teammates Quintana or Evans falter.

Canada’s Ryder Hesjedal may have won in 2012, but the Garmin-Sharp rider’s form since – coupled with lurid doping revelations from yesteryear – have very much relegated the 33-year-old to outsider status. Basso, Scarponi and Cunego are all pushing on and I only expect one of them to feature in the top ten come Trieste – probably Scarponi.

The most intriguing rider to follow will be Pierre Rolland of Europcar. The French 27-year-old has twice finished in the Tour top ten but is racing his debut Giro d’Italia after a change in his season schedule. A solid climber, Rolland may be tempted to go all-in for the Giro should he be in the mix come the business end of the race. It will affect his Tour performance, but a podium would do his morale no end of good.

10. What will the top ten be?
This is wholly subjective – and I know I’m putting myself on the line for excluding the likes of Evans and Hesjedal – but here goes…

1. Quintana, 2. Rodriguez, 3. Niemiec, 4. Uran, 5. Pozzovivo, 6. Majka, 7. Kiserlovski, 8. Scarponi, 9. Sanchez, 10. Rolland