The 10 questions that matter about the NBA finals

By Steven Paice / Roar Guru

After a long, tumultuous and often draining season it all comes down to this.

It is undeniable and indisputable that these are the best two teams in basketball, and they come into this rematch of last season’s fantastic series firing on all cylinders – Tony Parker’s wheel pending – and ready to battle again.

In one corner we have the two-time defending champions, reliant largely on the best player of the generation and his two able sidekicks. In the other corner, we have the benchmark for NBA excellence over the last decade and a half with Hall of Famers on the bench, in the backcourt and at power forward.

The home court advantage sits with San Antonio, and you tend to think that might come into play as this series will likely go the distance.

So who wins the series, and why? To answer that we move onto the questions that matter and that will help to decide this series.

1. Is LeBron’s legacy at stake?
There is nothing left to be said about James. He can defend all positions, plays a guard’s game in a power forward’s body and has answered every question and every challenge thrown at over the last two, almost three seasons.

The last playoff series he lost exposed seemingly fatal flaws, but since losing to Dirk Nowitzki and the Mavericks he has learned how to win on the biggest stage and the rest, as they say, is history.

Coach turned commentator Mark Jackson, known for stretching the truth on and off the court, recently described James as a mixture of Michael Jordan and Earvin ‘Magic’ Johnson, and someone the likes of which we have never seen before. Rich praise, but he deserves all the credit he gets.

Faced with what may be his biggest challenge to date, how will we judge James if he falls short? And likewise, how will we judge him if he can go and beat this Spurs team, probably the best team he has faced in his championship run?

While Chris Bosh, Dwayne Wade and the others might help him out, Miami’s chance of winning this series sits squarely in the hands of Akron’s favourite son.

2. Is Tony Parker’s ankle a concern?
Last year’s finals series turned when Parker strained a hamstring in Game 4, and he never fully recovered. While the Spurs had ample opportunities to win in any case (to be covered in detail later), once Parker was hampered they were at a decided disadvantage.

If Parker gets close to 100 per cent it creates interesting match-up decisions for Miami, who are faced with the dilemma with matching up Parker with Wade or taking the chance on Mario Chalmers or Norris Cole shutting down the elusive Frenchman.

While Parker can be exploited defensively, his offensive expertise far outweighs his defensive shortcomings if his ankle holds up.

3. Can the Miami bench play a role?
While James dominated Game 7 of last year’s NBA Finals series, it took arguably the most clutch three pointer ever by Ray Allen to even get the series to the deciding game.

Along with Allen, the Heat will turn to Shane Battier and Chris Andersen to play roles with Andersen in particular likely to get increasing minutes against the Spurs skilled front-court of Tim Duncan, Tiago Splitter and Boris Diaw.

When match-ups suit him, the Birdman remains an elite defensive player, rebounder and shot-blocker and his ability to stay on the court and out of foul trouble will play a crucial role in the result of this series.

4. Is Tim Duncan the best power forward ever?
The best argument against Duncan being the best to ever play that position seems to be that he can be seen as a centre. That’s not the strongest argument, and when you put his statistics, winning percentage, longevity, success and sustained individual excellence up to support your case, it is as close to a no-brainer as a subjective argument can be.

In Game 6 of the recently completed Western Conference Finals, the Spurs allowed the Thunder back into the game with a late charge and as the game headed into overtime they could have been excused for having an eye on getting home for Game 7.

Enter Timmy, who outscored Oklahoma City himself with a low-post master class and ensured the aged Spurs could get some vital rest ahead of the arrival of the Heat for the Finals.

5. Is the coaching match-up as one sided as it seems?
On one side you have Erik Spoelstra, who was hired as Miami’s video coordinator in 1995 and has since progressed to an assistant coach and now a two-time championship coach. On the other you have legendary Gregg Popovich, the once-active member of the US Air Force and four-time championship coach widely recognised as one of the best basketball coaches in NBA history.

His ability to put a system around Duncan that allows for players to swing in and out without a drop in standards and performances is well-known, and he is famously as gruff and short with the media as he is brilliant.

‘Spo’ would seem to over-matched, but shouldn’t be underestimated as he has proven to be more than James’ bag boy or a token coach; some would argue that anyone can coach Miami’s Big 3 but his ability to match San Antonio’s ever-changing and flexible line-ups will be critical for the Heat’s title chances.

6. Can Danny Green repeat last season’s lights-out shooting?
Green made 27 three-pointers at a percentage of over 55 per cent in last year’s finals series which is historically brilliant, and could have been better as those numbers were 25 triples at 66 per cent after Game 5.

As Green went, so did the Spurs as 17 of those baskets came in their three wins. In Games 6 and 7 it could be argued that Green became a liability as when his shot doesn’t drop, his value decreases dramatically.

Not recognised for his defence, Green will need to shoot the ball well with the depth and flexibility sitting on the San Antonio bench.

7. Who will play the better defence?
For different reasons, these are the best two offensive teams in the NBA. San Antonio plays pure basketball at its best, thriving off an incessant wave of passing, cutting, screening and shooting.

Some call it boring, but others agree it is team basketball at the highest of high levels. Miami base their offense around individual brilliance and outside shooting, and when James and Wade are playing well they remain impossible to stop.

Both sides have developed their defensive games to hide the weaker individual defenders and should one side get on top in the series, it will be intriguing to watch the other side adjust before it is too late.

The individual defensive brilliance of Duncan, Kahwi Leonard, James and Wade will be put to the ultimate test in this series with offensive brilliance as far as the eye can see.

8. Can Kahwi Leonard and Boris Diaw impact the series?
Kahwi and Boris…sounds like a 1970s cop show or a Broadway musical but in fact is the Spurs point of difference. Leonard announced himself to the world in last’s years finals series and for a large part of the series was one of the best three players on the floor.

In a different system his numbers might look more impressive but his impact on the game at both ends of the floor makes him one of the better young players in the game. He will be asked to defend James, and maybe Wade and contribute offensively and will likely do so with aplomb.

Diaw was a key component of the Phoenix Suns “seven-second offense” in the 2005-06 season as a stretch centre, and he is now likely to start at power forward and play a huge role in this series.

Diaw’s skills have never been questioned, but his work ethic and conditioning have. Having got himself into shape and with a clear niche in the Spurs system, look for Diaw to contribute offensively and perhaps even replicate his critical 26 point performance from the series-clinching Game 6 Western Conference Finals win against Oklahoma City.

9. Do Miami have a mental edge?
Let’s get something straight – the Finals were San Antonio’s to win last season, and they choked it away in Game 6 by not doing what they do well, the fundamentals.

A missed Kahwi Leonard free-throw kept it as a one possession game and a missed rebound allowed Chris Bosh to get an offensive board and pass to Ray Allen to make ‘The Shot’. On the other hand you could argue that Miami haven’t lost a mental battle since being out-played and out-coached in the 2011 Finals.

For all James’ physical strength and Wade’s athletic prowess, they rarely lose the game above the shoulders. When this series draws to a close and the Spurs have their Game 6 moment will they learn from their mistakes?

10. Who wins?
Miami have had a soft run to the Finals, barely getting out of first gear unless they had to (late in Game 2 against Indiana and Game 4 against Brooklyn) or when the opposition were mentally shot (Game 6 against Indiana).

San Antonio had a far tougher first round series than anyone thought they would, reacted savagely against Portland and withstood an OKC-charged assault based on emotion (Serge Ibaka) and unworldly brilliance (Russell Westbrook) with a high-quality veteran performance.

Do you go with the home-court advantage or the proven defending champs? Can Miami become an all-time great team by three-peating or does San Antonio get a fifth ring of this remarkable 15-year era?

Only the Michael Jordan-lead Chicago Bulls and the Lakers lead by Kobe and Shaq have three-peated since 1966. Those are damning stats and for Miami to join that exulted company would be a truly great effort and stamp them as an all-time great team.

This series will ebb and flow, with blowouts and close games interspersed across seven epic games.

For all James’ brilliance he is yet to win a Game 7 away from home and that will stay the same as Tim, Tony, Manu, Pop and the Spurs win an all-time classic series in seven games with Duncan winning the finals MVP.

The Crowd Says:

AUTHOR

2014-06-05T08:11:47+00:00

Steven Paice

Roar Guru


Thanks for the feedback Mushi, you have definitely dissected the concept of legacy far more than I did, or have in any of my writing. It raises an interesting debate and when we are talking about something that is opinion-based and has no basis, then the use of absolutes like 'no doubt' is bound to generate discussion.

2014-06-05T00:27:22+00:00

mushi

Guest


Another interesting note on comparing him to Bird in the legacy department LeBron has never posted a playoff PER below Larry's playoff average and only once has he post a playoff PER, as a 21 year old, worse than Bird's regular season average. And Larry has never, be it playoffs or regular season, ever posted a single PER above LeBron's playoff average.

2014-06-05T00:04:29+00:00

mushi

Guest


That's fine as I said it just cements the legacy that he's proven "we" are idiots. Putting aside the complete bastardisation of the team concept it doesn’t make sense. I’ve also not heard anyone say Larry Bird cannot be a top 5 player – he went 2-2 If we decide that an indidvual should be considered to have failed because his TEAM goes to 4 finals and winning 2 in a 30 team comp is a failure then we’re in a pretty murky situation in defining success? Baring serious injury he will finish his career with the record for MVP award shares, probably be #2 in PER whilst also getting regular Defensive POY votes. His 4 MVP’s put him in the top 5 for that and he’s a serious threat to grab another one if he cares enough about the award and regular season to dial it in defensively in the next two three years. On the “no doubt” it will define his legacy I am less certain of my fortune telling abilities but given a third of the last 30 finals MVPs were handed out to players older than Lebron James I would think there should be some room for doubt around the defining nature of this match. Also given Larry Bird seems to enjoy a spot reasonably high in the pecking order of NBA greats surely the 2-2 isn’t some shot to the heart? I get that you aren't agreeing but you seem to be suggesting the thought process to agree has some validity.

2014-06-04T15:10:30+00:00

Johnno

Guest


Micheal Jordan's shadow on Lebron as he descent's on a 3-peat. Tim Duncan's legacy is at stake too this finals, not as much as Lebron's but's it's there.

AUTHOR

2014-06-04T13:56:46+00:00

Steven Paice

Roar Guru


Thanks Joe, the role Leonard plays intrigues me and I tend to agree the the might be the most important player on the floor. The guy is a stud and would demand max money if he tested the market, and he has so much development ahead of him as a player. He proved last season that he doesn't hide away from the bright lights of the Finals, the missed free throw in Game 6 aside and to see him win the Finals MVP if San Antonio win the series wouldn't be a surprise for mine.

AUTHOR

2014-06-04T13:53:37+00:00

Steven Paice

Roar Guru


Mushi, whether it's right or wrong I think 'we' will judge LeBron harshly if he can't lead his team to the title this season. He is a polarising figure, and that's mainly of his own doing, and probably deserves to be discussed when talking about the top 5 players ever. But if they lose this series and go through four consecutive Finals series (an amazing performance by any measure, mind you) during LeBron's peak at 2-2 surely that has to count against his legacy? Personally I think it is a little single minded to judge James' legacy regardless of the result, but I have no doubt this is a career-defining series for him.

AUTHOR

2014-06-04T13:48:35+00:00

Steven Paice

Roar Guru


Bosh definitely has a huge role to play Astro. If he is in rhythm offensively it will help cover any defensive problems he might be having, and Miami's Big 3 all need to play extremely well given the distinct lack of depth that you rightly pointed out.

2014-06-04T03:28:17+00:00

Joe

Guest


Good writeup Steve. You pose a lot of good questions I'm not gonna go through them all the biggest one is #8 regarding Diaw & Kawhi Leonard. Diaw will have his ups & downs in the series & I think Popovich probably knows that going in.If they can get 2 to 3 above average performances from Diaw they'd take it Kawhi Leonard on the other hand, he IS in my opinion the key to San Antonio winning this thing He is their all round best player now over the course of a game He usually logs more mins per game than any of the Spurs "big 3" in Parker Duncan Ginobili He is far & away their top defender & he's gonna be asked to defend LeBron & probably Wade at time Offensively he can do it all & should create mismatches no matter where he is on the court. So Leonard is the key to S.A. winning this series IMO. Im gonna say Spurs in 7

2014-06-04T02:29:26+00:00

mushi

Guest


I don't get the legacy question. The only legacy it can serve is proving how stupid a fan base we must be

2014-06-04T00:25:19+00:00

astro

Guest


Nice one Steven! Very exciting series ahead...hard to go past Patty and Baynes and the Spurs. They look stronger than last year, while the Heat look just a touch weaker without Miller and with Battier, Haslem and Allen being that much older, and with Beasley and Oden not being of much help. But its a great series in terms of legacy. Lebron's legacy would be cemented if he can get the Heat over the line as a (maybe) top 5 player in history, while the achievement of Pop and Duncan winning a series 15 years apart would put them in the history books as all time legends (if they're not there already). Another big question for me is Bosh...He was great against the Pacers, and if he can take that form into the finals, he could end up being the difference. While Duncan or Diaw will be more comfortable following Bosh out of the paint, than Hibbert or West, the space he creates when he's making his 3s will be hard to the Spurs to combat...anyway, we'll see!

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