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There has been a lot of comment and a number of articles now on whether coach Ewen McKenzie has selected the Wallabies team on form or on reputation.
Most of you will know that I have been keeping a Team of the Week series going for 15 weeks now and, although I’m nowhere near the judge of form as the Wallaby coach, I thought it worth comparing some analysis of my selections with the initial Wallaby team.
As with my periodic summations, I have also ‘valued’ each time I picked someone between one and three where one was a squeak in for want of a better option, two was a good effort that week and three was a screamer.
The form players are the ones selected most often with the ‘value’ only being necessary if there is a tie.
Below are the results.
1. Loosehead Prop
Form player: Scott Sio
Player selected: James Slipper
I selected Scott in the Team of the Week six times throughout the season, two ahead of James Slipper who was the runner up.
I have a feeling either Scott may be a bit crook or Link wanted to go with more experience because I don’t think James is the most in-form loosehead prop in the country at the moment.
Verdict: Not picked on form.
2. Hooker
Form player: Stephen Moore
Player selected: Stephen Moore
There’s a long gap between Stephen and the next man in this one. The next man was close run but Tatafu Polota-Nau scrapes in.
Verdict: Picked on form.
3. Tighthead Prop
Form player: Ben Alexander
Player selected: Sekope Kepu
Now this is an interesting one. Ben got into my Team of the Week four weeks in a row from Round 5 through to Round 8 but I only picked him once since then. So maybe his ‘form’ was an aberration? Next best was a tie between James Slipper and Kieran Longbottom.
James is obviously already picked and Kieran is off overseas so who is next? Lo and behold it’s Paddy Ryan with three appearances. Sekope Kepu has not featured once.
Verdict: Not picked on form.
4. Loosehead lock
Form player: Scott Fardy
Player selected: Rob Simmons
Now it all falls apart a little this analysis. Scott Fardy is a form player but was selected at blindside rather than lock and I think that’s fair enough. He was pretty close to being the form blindside as well. So the non-selection of Scott here is not an indication that McKenzie is not selecting on form.
So who was next after Scott? I actually had Will Skelton here next but he was only selected three times. Others selected three times were Hugh Pyle and Sam Wykes – both mostly early in the season.
I can understand the non-selection of Pyle since he is off overseas. And Wykes has been a low scorer on the times I have selected him and, while he is a solid Super Rugby player, I’m not sure is genuinely international standard. So going with Simmons makes sense.
Verdict: Not picked on form.
5. Tighthead lock
Form player: Luke Jones
Player selected: Sam Carter
Luke Jones I selected in this spot five times so he narrowly edged out Sam Carter who I selected four times. Luke has become a bit of a darling of the rugby fan community this season with some consistent performances.
Sam looks kind of goofy by comparison but I think there is actually not that much between them.
Verdict: Not picked on form.
6. Blindside flanker
Form player: Scott Fardy
Player selected: Scott Fardy
In actuality Angus Cottrell is the guy I’d picked most in this position, but we know he is injured and out of contention. Of the remainders, a couple of guys were close on his heels being Scott Fardy and, amazingly, Dave Dennis.
When you add the selections and points Fardy scored at lock position, he is the clear cut choice here.
Verdict: Picked on form.
7. Openside flanker
Form player: Michael Hooper
Player selected: Michael Hooper
A pretty close battle between Hooper and Hodgson this one but Hooper in the lead.
Verdict: Picked on form.
8. Number 8
Form player: Ben McCalman
Player selected: Wycliff Palu
Wycliff Palu was off injured for part of this season and may have scored higher if he had been fit, but as far as I’m concerned a player can only display form by playing. A player not playing can’t be said to be in form.
So I’m still giving the points to McCalman. Wycliff did however score this spot the last two rounds so not an outrageous decision by any means.
Verdict: Not picked on form.
9. Scrumhalf
Form player: Nic White
Player selected: Nic White
Nic won this spot by a fair way. Next best was actually Nick Phipps.
Verdict: Picked on form.
10. Flyhalf
Form player: Bernard Foley
Player selected: Bernard Foley
Well, actually Quade Cooper squeaked in ahead of Bernard but we know he is injured and Bernard was picked by me five times compared to Matt Toomua with three.
Verdict: Picked on form.
11. Left wing
Form player: Nick Cummins
Player selected: Nick Cummins
I selected Nick five times this season. Next best was a tie between Rob Horne and Robbie Coleman with four each but Rob Horne scored better on points.
Verdict: Picked on form.
12. Inside centre
Form player: Kurtley Beale
Player selected: Matt Toomua
Kurtley nailed this position in my selections being picked a total of seven times. He has really come on well late in this season so far. Despite that I have said on numerous occasions that he worries me as an inside centre because of his defence – especially at international level.
Toomua of course has not featured once in this position since he doesn’t play here. I do agree with his selection at 12 but I still have to say…
Verdict: Not picked on form.
13. Outside centre
Form player: Adam Ashley-Cooper
Player selected: Tevita Kuridrani
Another position absolutely nailed by one player and that’s Adam. Tevita I have only picked here twice but that’s the same amount of times as anyone else selected here.
I am in two minds about the Tevita and Adam selections. It’s a real toss-up as to whether Adam at 13 with, say, Rob Horne on the wing wouldn’t have been stronger than Tevita at 13 with Adam on the wing.
I’m pretty certain that once Henry Speight is eligible he will be selected at wing and Adam – who is a vice captain, remember – moved back to outside centre.
Verdict: Not picked on form.
14. Right wing
Form player: (Not sure)
Player selected: Adam Ashley-Cooper
There has been nobody that shined consistently on the right wing this season. Joe Tomane has had injury problems and Henry Speight is still ineligible. So in one respect I can understand Link putting Adam out here.
It is probably less risky playing Adam on the right wing where he has international experience already than playing a relative newcomer here – even one like Rob Horne who has played almost exclusively on the left wing.
A pity Jesse Mogg has not developed his running game a bit more this season and had some experience on the wing. I reckon he could be quite something but it’s up to the Brumbies to try that with McCabe perhaps at fullback.
Verdict: Not picked on form.
15. Fullback
Form player: Israel Folau
Player selected: Israel Folau
Verdict: Picked on form.
Altogether that’s only seven out of fifteen picked on form. Now of course I acknowledge that picking the best in each position is not always the best approach and that balance and the ‘shape’ of the team is important, as is experience and so on.
There are a lot of good reasons for the selections of guys like Simmons at 4, Toomua at 12, Kuridrani at 13 and Ashley-Cooper at 14 which I agree with. So I’m not criticising the coach or the team.
Is it a team picked on form though? In a way it is but with a big asterisk being that experience, balance and shape have also been taken into account. As they should.
I do feel most for a few of the Force players like Angus Cottrell, Matt Hodgson and Ben McCalman. The latter two in particular have had blinders this season, been instrumental in the Force getting to where they are and I think deserve more reward for their efforts.
Unfortunately they happen to have some mighty fine players in their way and I guess that’s a great thing for Australian rugby.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.